Mervin Fell

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AARI	20	17	79	4.65	3.50	24.1%	14.1%	—	K 17.8% · BB 16.7% · FIP 4.36
2026	23	AARI	23	18	84	6.56	3.14	25.9%	12.9%	—	K 19.1% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	24	MLBARI	12	12	67	5.64	5.64	17.9%	17.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBARI	6	6	33	5.39	5.31	18.8%	15.7%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBARI	8	8	50	5.26	5.22	19.4%	15.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control25Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Andrew Thurman (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.64

FIP5.64

K%17.9%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%0.1%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2525

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	7	3	13	56	17	6	0	43%	1.9	20.6%	13.4%	7.3%	0.0%	3.46	3.05	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	7	3	13	56	17	6	0	43%	1.9	30.4%	10.7%	19.6%	0.0%	3.46	1.87	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	5	33	134	40	17	0	42%	2.8	20.3%	15.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.27	3.39	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	12	5	33	134	40	17	0	42%	2.8	20.3%	15.9%	4.4%	0.0%	3.27	3.39	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	12	5	33	134	40	17	0	42%	2.8	29.9%	12.7%	17.2%	0.0%	3.27	2.22	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	20	17	79	340	82	48	4	85%	4.0	17.8%	16.7%	1.2%	1.2%	4.65	4.36	—
2025	22	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	20	17	79	340	82	48	4	85%	4.0	17.8%	16.7%	1.2%	1.2%	4.65	4.36	—
2025	22	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	20	17	79	340	82	48	4	85%	4.0	24.1%	14.1%	10.0%	1.2%	4.65	3.50	—
2026	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	18	84	379	98	49	4	78%	3.6	19.1%	15.3%	3.9%	1.4%	6.56	4.17	—
2026	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	23	18	84	379	98	49	4	78%	3.6	19.1%	15.3%	3.9%	1.4%	6.56	4.17	—
2026	23	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	23	18	84	379	98	49	4	78%	3.6	25.9%	12.9%	12.9%	1.1%	6.56	3.14	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	ARI	12	12	67	283	51	50	7	100%	5.6	17.9%	17.8%	0.1%	2.6%	5.64	5.64	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	76	322	61	51	8	100%	5.9	18.8%	15.7%	3.1%	2.6%	5.39	5.31	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	76	322	62	49	8	100%	5.9	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	2.6%	5.26	5.22	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	75	317	62	47	9	100%	5.8	19.6%	14.9%	4.6%	2.7%	5.21	5.21	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	73	307	60	46	9	100%	6.1	19.5%	15.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.24	5.27	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	ARI	12	12	70	293	57	45	9	100%	5.8	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	3.0%	5.34	5.40	-0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	65	276	52	43	9	100%	5.9	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	3.2%	5.48	5.58	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	ARI	6	6	33	139	26	22	4	100%	5.5	18.8%	15.7%	3.1%	2.6%	5.39	5.31	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	ARI	8	8	50	211	41	32	6	100%	6.2	19.4%	15.2%	4.2%	2.6%	5.26	5.22	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	58	245	48	37	7	100%	5.8	19.6%	14.9%	4.6%	2.7%	5.21	5.21	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	50	39	7	100%	6.1	19.5%	15.0%	4.6%	2.8%	5.24	5.27	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	61	258	50	39	8	100%	6.1	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	3.0%	5.34	5.40	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	59	249	47	39	8	100%	5.9	18.9%	15.5%	3.4%	3.2%	5.48	5.58	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	54	322	1359	262	207	39	100%	6.0	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.8%	5.32	4.96	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	163	129	24	100%	6.0	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.8%	5.32	4.96	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		62	43	209	909	172	143	9	69%	3.4	18.9%	15.8%	3.2%	1.0%	5.12	4.06	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	870	165	137	9	69%	3.4	18.9%	15.8%	3.2%	1.0%	5.12	4.06	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mervin Fell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.64	17.9%	17.8%	2.6%	—	5.25	19.2%	4.0%	228	-0.39	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Andrew Thurman R 2016 · 6.31 FIP	24	SP-	6.31	14.4%	16.9%	4.2%	.291	2.59	16.8%	9.6%	25	-3.72	2.59	264	82
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	81
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	80
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	80
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	80
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	80
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	78
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	78
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	77
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	77
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	77
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	76
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	76
Aaron Hernandez R 2021 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP	4.65	20.9%	16.4%	2.2%	.329	5.36	18.8%	5.8%	59	+0.71	4.65	194	75
Keith Weisenberg R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	15.5%	19.0%	1.0%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	162	75
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	75
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	75
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	19.1%	15.6%	1.08	5.36
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*