Liam Sullivan

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 LHP 6'6" / 255 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	AWSH	2	2	9	1.93	1.06	40.5%	11.9%	—	K 40.5% · BB 11.9% · FIP 1.19
2025	23	MIX2 levels	15	14	51	2.49	3.04	32.2%	10.1%	—	K 23.0% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.45
2026	24	MIX2 levels	27	19	90	5.88	5.15	26.2%	12.4%	—	K 19.7% · BB 14.5% · FIP 6.54
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	9	9	54	5.53	5.53	20.6%	13.6%	-0.4
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	6	6	35	5.39	5.38	21.0%	13.0%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	8	8	50	5.32	5.33	21.1%	12.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsErik Rivera (age 23) · Hayden Mullins (age 23) · Jimmy Robbins (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122130vR 138

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%20.6%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%7.0%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	72	25	12	2	86%	2.3	25.7%	20.5%	5.2%	4.1%	4.96	5.78	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	16	72	25	12	2	86%	2.3	34.7%	16.7%	18.1%	2.8%	4.96	3.83	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	2	9	42	17	5	0	100%	4.7	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	0.0%	1.93	1.19	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	2	9	42	17	5	0	100%	4.7	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	0.0%	1.93	1.19	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	2	2	9	42	17	5	0	100%	4.7	40.5%	11.9%	28.6%	0.0%	1.93	1.06	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	51	199	64	20	5	93%	3.4	23.0%	12.3%	10.6%	3.1%	2.49	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	14	51	199	64	20	5	93%	3.4	23.0%	12.3%	10.6%	3.1%	2.49	4.45	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	14	51	199	64	20	5	93%	3.4	32.2%	10.1%	22.1%	2.5%	2.49	3.04	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	90	404	106	50	19	70%	3.3	19.7%	14.5%	5.3%	6.0%	5.88	6.54	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	90	404	106	50	19	70%	3.3	19.7%	14.5%	5.3%	6.0%	5.88	6.54	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	90	404	106	50	19	70%	3.3	26.2%	12.4%	13.9%	4.7%	5.88	5.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	9	9	54	228	47	31	9	100%	6.0	20.6%	13.6%	7.0%	3.8%	5.53	5.53	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	81	343	72	45	13	100%	5.8	21.0%	13.0%	8.0%	3.7%	5.39	5.38	-0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	80	338	71	43	12	100%	6.2	21.1%	12.7%	8.4%	3.7%	5.32	5.33	-0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	78	328	75	39	12	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.8%	5.16	5.09	-0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	74	313	71	37	12	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.9%	10.8%	3.9%	5.18	5.20	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	294	66	36	12	100%	5.8	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	4.1%	5.30	5.38	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	35	148	31	19	5	100%	5.8	21.0%	13.0%	8.0%	3.7%	5.39	5.38	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	50	211	45	27	8	100%	6.2	21.1%	12.7%	8.4%	3.7%	5.32	5.33	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	58	245	56	29	9	100%	5.8	23.0%	11.8%	11.2%	3.8%	5.16	5.09	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	60	253	58	30	10	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.9%	10.8%	3.9%	5.18	5.20	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	60	253	57	31	10	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.2%	10.2%	4.1%	5.30	5.38	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	263	1112	247	136	43	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.3%	9.9%	3.8%	5.26	4.88	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	103	33	100%	6.0	22.2%	12.3%	9.9%	3.8%	5.26	4.88	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		51	41	167	717	161	103	33	80%	3.3	22.4%	14.3%	8.1%	4.6%	4.54	5.57	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	49	200	860	193	123	40	80%	3.3	22.4%	14.3%	8.1%	4.6%	4.54	5.57	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	20.6%	13.6%	3.8%	—	5.27	21.7%	9.2%	239	-0.26	—	—	—
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	85
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	76
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	73
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	73
Garrett Schoenle L 2023 · 5.38 FIP	25	SP-	5.38	20.5%	15.0%	3.9%	.307	3.58	20.9%	12.1%	174	-1.80	2.32	362	73
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	72
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	71
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	71
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	71
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	71
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	70
Nick Zwack L 2023 · 5.41 FIP	24	SP-	5.41	20.2%	9.6%	5.1%	.346	5.30	19.0%	8.6%	105	-0.11	3.16	292	70
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	70
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	70
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	70
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	69
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	69
Marcelo Martinez L 2022 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP-	5.73	20.2%	11.3%	5.3%	.287	6.79	11.9%	7.1%	21	+1.06	3.29	427	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	73	21.9%	12.5%	1.47	5.30
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Frank LaCorte ('75-'84, -4 WAR*)	2.5	61	25.0%*	12.0%*	1.43*	5.83*