Sergio Villa

P ACL Reds

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Rojos	12	3	29	5.65	4.74	21.7%	13.2%	—	K 14.8% · BB 16.5% · FIP 6.35
2026	20	ROKCIN	14	0	24	7.50	5.35	22.2%	15.4%	—	K 15.1% · BB 19.2% · FIP 6.89
2027PROJ	21	MLBCIN	14	0	15	5.56	5.56	19.5%	16.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBCIN	12	0	13	5.24	5.10	21.0%	13.8%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsMichael Perez (age 21) · Paul Gervase (age 22) · Brandon Dufault (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.56

FIP5.56

K%19.5%

BB%16.2%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP15

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	0	22	95	14	10	0	0%	1.5	10.0%	13.2%	-3.1%	0.0%	6.23	3.92	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	0	22	95	14	10	0	0%	1.5	10.0%	13.2%	-3.1%	0.0%	6.23	3.92	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	0	22	95	14	10	0	0%	1.5	14.7%	10.5%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	3.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	3	29	129	28	17	4	25%	2.4	14.8%	16.5%	-1.7%	4.4%	5.65	6.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	3	29	129	28	17	4	25%	2.4	14.8%	16.5%	-1.7%	4.4%	5.65	6.35	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	12	3	29	129	28	17	4	25%	2.4	21.7%	13.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.65	4.74	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	14	0	24	117	26	18	4	0%	1.7	15.1%	19.2%	-4.1%	4.8%	7.50	6.89	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	14	0	24	117	26	18	4	0%	1.7	15.1%	19.2%	-4.1%	4.8%	7.50	6.89	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	14	0	24	117	26	18	4	0%	1.7	22.2%	15.4%	6.8%	3.4%	7.50	5.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CIN	14	0	15	63	12	10	2	0%	1.1	19.5%	16.2%	3.4%	3.1%	5.56	5.56	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	26	0	27	114	24	16	3	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.8%	7.2%	3.0%	5.24	5.10	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	12	0	13	55	12	8	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.8%	7.2%	3.0%	5.24	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	12	8	2	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.8%	7.2%	3.0%	5.24	4.72	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	120	30	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.8%	7.2%	3.0%	5.24	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		40	3	74	341	46	56	11	8%	1.9	13.6%	16.5%	-2.9%	3.3%	6.42	5.86	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	8	200	917	124	151	30	8%	1.9	13.6%	16.5%	-2.9%	3.3%	6.42	5.86	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sergio Villa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.56	19.5%	16.2%	3.1%	—	5.10	21.0%	7.2%	27	-0.46	—	—	—
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	91
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	89
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	88
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	88
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	88
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	86
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	85
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	85
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	85
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	84