Liam Best — OGILVIE

Liam Best P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 213 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%22.2%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	36	0	48	223	55	33	3	0%	1.3	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	1.7%	3.59	4.70	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	36	0	48	223	55	33	3	0%	1.3	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	1.7%	3.59	4.70	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	STL	29	0	41	195	47	29	2	0%	1.4	24.1%	14.9%	9.2%	1.0%	3.76	3.51	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	STL	7	0	7	28	8	4	1	0%	1.0	28.6%	14.3%	14.3%	3.6%	2.57	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	46	0	48	205	47	23	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	47	0	50	210	50	22	6	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.41	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	STL	48	0	50	212	51	21	6	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.31	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	STL	48	0	50	212	51	21	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.29	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	STL	47	0	50	209	51	21	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	23	0	24	101	23	12	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	2.9%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	33	0	35	148	35	16	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.5%	13.1%	2.9%	4.51	4.41	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	STL	39	0	41	173	42	17	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.31	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	STL	42	0	44	186	45	18	5	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.33	4.29	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	46	19	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.0%	14.2%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	188	794	190	81	23	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	3.98	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	86	24	0%	1.1	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	2.9%	4.42	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		36	0	48	223	41	39	4	0%	1.3	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	1.7%	3.59	4.70	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	936	172	163	16	0%	1.3	18.4%	17.4%	1.0%	1.7%	3.59	4.70	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Best (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	22.2%	12.8%	3.0%	—	4.43	23.6%	12.9%	148	-0.43	—	—	—
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	93
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	90
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	89
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	89
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	89
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	89
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	88
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Will Kincanon R 2018 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.2%	11.5%	1.6%	.284	3.77	22.2%	10.0%	58	+0.02	3.75	122	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	23.6%	10.7%	1.13	4.49
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22