Nelly Taylor

OF Portland Sea Dogs

Age 24 L/L 6'0" / 180 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	A+/A2 orgs	475	.233/.339/.376	8	33	47	—	.171/.252/.270
2025	22	A+/INTL2 orgs	518	.210/.353/.331	7	36	35	—	.150/.241/.234
2026	23	AABOS	380	.188/.306/.325	8	23	42	—	.158/.247/.262
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBBOS	4	.181/.265/.286	0	0	53	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBBOS	76	.187/.271/.303	1	3	59	-0.2
2029PROJ45% MLB	26	MLBBOS	131	.191/.275/.315	3	4	63	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$3M2032Ext$5M2033Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Speed83

BB%77

Chase%65

ISO43

Z-Con%31

Whiff%28

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsTyler Callihan (age 24) · Cam Gibson (age 25) · Jonny Butler (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .265 / .286

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%10

BABIP276

ISO102

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	Greenville Drive	—	41	38	11	2	1	2	3	13	0	2	1	289	341	553	894	263	391	32	7	387	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Salem Red Sox	—	434	369	84	24	3	6	60	106	2	31	9	228	339	358	696	130	300	24	14	317	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Greenville Drive	—	473	384	83	24	3	7	81	133	4	29	12	216	358	349	707	133	306	28	17	326	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	45	36	5	0	0	0	8	19	0	7	0	139	295	139	434		278	42	18	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	320	60	18	1	8	51	116	4	23	5	188	306	325	631	138	261	31	13	289	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	41	39	7	1	1	1	2	18	0	2	1	179	220	333	553	154	334	44	5	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	434	387	66	17	2	5	42	152	2	31	9	171	255	264	519	93	258	35	10	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	473	419	63	16	2	5	46	186	4	29	12	150	241	234	475	84	245	39	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	336	53	15	1	6	36	141	4	23	5	158	247	262	509	104	237	37	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	475	426	74	18	3	6	44	170	2	33	10	174	254	272	527	99	269	36	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	475	407	95	26	4	8	63	119	2	33	10	233	339	376	715	143	307	25	13	323	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	518	459	70	17	3	6	50	204	4	36	12	153	242	242	484	89	252	39	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	518	420	88	24	3	7	89	152	4	36	12	210	353	331	684	121	305	29	17	317	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	336	53	15	1	6	36	141	4	23	5	158	247	262	509	104	245	37	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	320	60	18	1	8	51	116	4	23	5	188	306	325	631	138	261	31	13	289	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	475	426	74	18	3	6	44	170	2	33	10	174	254	272	527	99	265	36	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	518	459	70	17	3	6	50	204	4	36	12	153	242	242	484	89	245	39	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	337	53	15	1	6	36	141	4	23	5	157	247	261	508	104	237	37	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	475	426	74	18	3	6	44	170	2	33	10	174	254	272	527	99	265	36	9	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	518	459	70	17	3	6	50	204	4	36	12	153	242	242	484	89	245	39	10	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	380	337	53	15	1	6	36	141	4	23	5	157	247	261	508	104	237	37	9	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	2%	380	338	60	15	2	6	36	134	3	14	4	175	259	277	536	102	265	35	9	247	53	-21	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	181	265	286	551	105	276	25	0	253	53	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	31%	245	218	39	9	1	4	23	85	2	8	2	181	265	294	559	113	267	35	9	256	59	-12	+1	-0	-1	+5	-0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	45%	294	262	48	11	1	6	28	100	2	9	3	185	269	306	575	121	269	34	10	262	63	-13	+1	-0	-2	+6	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	31%	76	68	12	3	0	1	7	26	1	3	1	187	271	303	574	116	278	34	9	262	59	-4	+0	-0	-0	+2	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	45%	131	117	24	6	1	3	12	44	1	4	1	191	275	315	590	123	280	34	9	268	63	-6	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	207	185	36	9	1	4	19	70	2	7	2	195	277	319	596	124	286	34	9	266	48	-9	+1	-0	-1	+4	-0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	113	28	3	13	60	220	6	22	6	194	277	320	597	126	285	34	9	266	48	-29	+2	-1	-4	+14	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2122	1887	317	78	10	31	201	774	16	117	34	168	254	269	523	101	261	36	9	238	48	-36	+2	-1	-4	+16	-2.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	97	24	3	9	62	237	5	36	10	168	254	266	521	99	262	36	10	238	48	-32	+2	-1	-4	+14	-2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 380 PAwOBA .283 → .231 (−52)K% 30.5% → 37.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.53%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	37.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	9.46%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	0.92%
Singles /BIP	16.18%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.957	×1.027	15.42%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.957	×1.027	7.46%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.000	×0.950	×0.957	×1.027	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	3.14%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .283 → .231; ISO .138 → .111; BABIP .261 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greenville Drive · 473 PAwOBA .319 → .220 (−100)K% 28.1% → 39.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.12%	÷0.936	×1.310	—	—	39.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.70%	÷1.050	×0.600	—	×1.012	9.66%
HBP% /PA	0.85%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.66%
Singles /BIP	19.52%	÷0.974	×0.870	×0.953	×1.012	16.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.56%	÷1.099	×0.780	×0.953	×1.012	6.54%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.011	×0.850	×0.953	×1.012	0.97%
Home runs /BIP	2.79%	÷1.117	×0.880	—	×1.012	2.22%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 95, 2B 120, 3B 102, K 87, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .319 → .220; ISO .133 → .094; BABIP .306 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASalem Red Sox · 434 PAwOBA .312 → .234 (−78)K% 24.4% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.42%	÷0.948	×1.360	—	—	35.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.82%	÷1.011	×0.690	—	×1.015	9.57%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.36%
Singles /BIP	19.39%	÷0.989	×0.920	×0.964	×1.015	17.65%
Doubles /BIP	9.13%	÷1.051	×0.830	×0.964	×1.015	7.05%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.964	×1.015	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	2.28%	÷0.933	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.99%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .312 → .234; ISO .130 → .096; BABIP .300 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 41 PAwOBA .376 → .273 (−103)K% 31.7% → 43.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.71%	÷0.960	×1.310	—	—	43.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.32%	÷0.924	×0.600	—	×1.027	4.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.00%	÷1.013	×0.870	—	×1.027	21.17%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.037	×0.780	—	×1.027	6.18%
Triples /BIP	4.00%	÷0.927	×0.850	—	×1.027	3.77%
Home runs /BIP	8.00%	÷1.043	×0.880	—	×1.027	6.93%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .376 → .273; ISO .263 → .193; BABIP .391 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	211	4	7	184	265	302	-1	+0	-0.5	-0.2
/162	664	13	22	-4.0	+0.0	-1.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nelly Taylor (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	173/257/274	101	265	3	8	35%	9%	53	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tyler Callihan 2024 · AA	24	43	42→45	55	41	210/263/318	108	284	8	18	28%	6%	63	-1.3	219/281/337	118	311	12	21	31%	7%	75	-0.5	213/281/334	121	303	14	24	32%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Cam Gibson 2019 · AA	25	40→41	43→45	54→55	43	199/264/310	111	274	10	17	30%	7%	62	-1.4	205/268/307	102	282	8	19	28%	7%	63	-1.3	191/255/287	97	258	7	25	27%	7%	51	-1.7
✕Jonny Butler 2024 · AA	25	41→33	44→50	61→55	41	203/266/328	125	283	11	21	32%	7%	68	-1.0	188/263/297	109	256	9	14	28%	8%	59	-1.6	164/247/265	101	220	7	12	27%	9%	44	-1.4
✕Donta' Williams 2024 · AA	25	39→34	40	52→55	46	188/278/281	93	282	7	22	33%	9%	62	-1.4	189/266/267	78	286	5	16	33%	8%	54	-2.0	165/243/216	51	252	1	15	32%	8%	31	-1.1
✕Max Ferguson 2024 · A	24	37→35	40	61→60	47	178/265/267	89	273	7	30	35%	10%	54	-2.0	184/259/278	94	263	9	26	31%	9%	54	-2.0	179/256/271	92	242	11	27	29%	9%	48	-1.7
✕Danny Payne 2011 · A	25	39→41	41→45	55→50	48	190/277/293	103	282	8	19	33%	10%	64	-1.3	198/279/320	122	314	11	14	37%	10%	71	-0.8	175/269/315	140	286	13	11	40%	11%	66	-0.7
✕Gavin Cross 2024 · A	23	37→40	47→50	55	42	190/264/327	138	277	14	18	35%	8%	68	-1.0	203/255/336	133	283	15	23	32%	6%	65	-1.2	200/247/333	133	277	16	26	33%	5%	59	-1.3
✕Michael Siani 2022 · A	23	38→45	39→45	55→60	43	187/258/272	85	276	7	25	33%	8%	52	-2.2	210/281/311	101	279	9	30	26%	8%	69	-0.9	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Oliver Dunn 2022 · AA	24	39→46	44→45	53→55	46	188/273/305	116	293	11	14	37%	10%	65	-1.2	220/303/367	147	343	14	14	36%	10%	91	+0.6	203/286/331	129	310	11	20	35%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Jacob Wetzel 2024 · A	24	38→34	41→45	50	44	185/262/277	92	271	8	12	33%	8%	55	-2.0	199/275/320	121	288	9	14	31%	9%	69	-0.9	196/279/346	150	275	11	17	30%	10%	75	-0.3
✕Phillip Sikes 2024 · AA	25	38→37	44→45	58→55	39	190/260/306	116	291	11	27	37%	7%	60	-1.6	192/259/305	113	293	12	21	37%	6%	60	-1.6	176/247/286	110	265	13	20	37%	6%	49	-1.2
✕Corey Ray 2019 · AA	24	39→37	47→50	55	36	194/250/333	139	305	14	22	39%	6%	63	-1.4	196/250/328	132	320	14	15	41%	6%	61	-1.5	170/215/299	128	268	15	12	41%	5%	39	-1.3
✕Taylor Lewis 2014 · A	24	38	39→45	60→55	35	183/230/277	93	286	5	18	36%	5%	41	-3.0	202/245/291	89	293	6	17	31%	5%	50	-2.3	206/229/274	68	271	5	26	26%	2%	36	-0.8
✕Jacob Hannemann 2015 · A	24	43	40→45	55→60	39	209/255/304	95	289	7	20	30%	5%	57	-1.8	208/257/314	106	282	8	23	28%	5%	60	-1.6	202/254/312	110	270	8	27	27%	5%	56	-1.4
✕Duke Ellis 2022 · A	24	37→47	38→40	55→80	36	182/235/256	74	279	7	24	36%	6%	39	-3.1	208/267/293	85	315	8	43	34%	6%	59	-1.6	238/288/332	95	331	8	94	29%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Stephen Wrenn 2019 · AA	24	42→43	40→45	56→60	39	204/256/295	91	288	7	24	31%	6%	55	-1.9	204/265/312	108	298	9	24	33%	6%	63	-1.4	193/259/307	113	288	9	27	34%	6%	58	-1.2
✕Nelson Ward 2017 · AA	24	44→48	40	54→50	43	210/273/306	96	295	7	18	30%	7%	65	-1.2	217/277/297	80	314	5	15	30%	7%	63	-1.3	224/280/273	49	335	2	12	31%	6%	55	-1.0
✕Connor Scott 2024 · AA	24	41→46	41→45	50	41	202/248/309	107	269	7	13	28%	6%	55	-1.9	195/241/298	103	272	8	9	30%	5%	51	-2.3	177/220/285	107	251	11	7	33%	5%	37	-1.6
✕Chris Grayson 2013 · A	23	40→37	43→45	56→50	42	198/261/311	114	270	9	20	29%	7%	61	-1.5	195/259/291	96	265	7	15	28%	7%	57	-1.8	184/250/270	86	247	6	15	27%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Shawn Goosenberg 2024 · A	24	40→38	42→45	56→55	41	196/265/296	100	285	10	23	33%	7%	60	-1.6	197/250/309	112	295	11	18	35%	6%	57	-1.8	184/234/312	127	273	14	18	37%	5%	49	-1.7

Nelly Taylor

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps