Yannelbinson Lugo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Yannelbinson Lugo P DSL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 166 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%20.0%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%5.2%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	16	6	33	157	29	18	1	38%	2.0	12.6%	14.3%	-1.8%	0.8%	5.23	4.29	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	16	6	33	157	29	18	1	38%	2.0	12.6%	14.3%	-1.8%	0.8%	5.23	4.29	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	16	6	33	157	29	18	1	38%	2.0	18.5%	11.5%	7.0%	0.6%	5.23	3.38	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	8	6	13	71	2	13	1	75%	1.6	1.9%	22.9%	-21.0%	1.7%	11.08	6.77	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	8	6	13	71	2	13	1	75%	1.6	1.9%	22.9%	-21.0%	1.7%	11.08	6.77	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	8	6	13	71	2	13	1	75%	1.6	2.8%	18.3%	-15.5%	1.4%	11.08	6.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.0%	14.9%	5.2%	3.0%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TB	4	4	20	84	18	11	2	100%	5.0	21.2%	13.0%	8.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.94	-0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	TB	2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	5.0	21.2%	13.0%	8.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.94	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	5	1	100%	4.9	21.2%	13.0%	8.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.56	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	183	102	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	13.0%	8.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		24	12	46	228	21	39	2	50%	1.9	9.2%	17.0%	-7.8%	1.1%	6.90	5.06	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	53	200	999	92	170	11	50%	1.9	9.2%	17.0%	-7.8%	1.1%	6.90	5.06	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yannelbinson Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	20.0%	14.9%	3.0%	—	4.94	21.2%	8.3%	20	-0.36	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	89
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	83
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	82
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	81
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	80
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	79
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	78
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	77
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	76
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	76
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	76
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	75
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	75
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	75
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	74
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	74
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	74
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	74
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	74
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	74