Manuel Cabrera

SS Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKWSH	115	.220/.322/.270	1	2	5	—	.135/.217/.144
2026	20	AWSH	252	.219/.333/.324	5	6	45	—	.174/.264/.251
2026	20	ROKWSH	16	.250/.250/.438	1	1	2	—	.188/.188/.375
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBWSH	378	.195/.269/.289	6	7	59	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBWSH	110	.200/.275/.302	2	2	65	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBWSH	195	.204/.279/.312	4	4	69	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Chase%54

BB%51

Speed38

ISO35

K%33

wRC+31

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJuan Mora (age 21) · Steven Baron (age 21) · Ricardo Hurtado (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 256 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .267 / .286

PA256

HR4

SB5

K%28

BB%8

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	179	148	23	6	0	1	20	40	7	8	1	155	286	216	502	61	200	22	11	242	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	146	113	30	5	1	1	17	36	14	12	3	265	424	354	778	88	377	25	12	364	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	115	100	22	2	0	1	11	41	4	2	0	220	322	270	592	50	362	36	10	282	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	252	210	46	7	0	5	31	69	5	6	1	219	333	324	657	105	289	27	12	299	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	16	16	4	0	0	1	0	6	0	1	0	250	250	438	688	188	333	38	0	300	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	153	14	3	0	0	15	48	7	8	1	92	206	111	317	20	129	27	8	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	119	21	3	1	0	11	42	14	12	3	176	319	218	538	42	245	29	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	104	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	135	217	144	362	10	305	51	6	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	252	219	38	5	0	4	22	94	5	6	1	174	264	251	515	78	253	37	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	16	16	3	0	0	1	0	9	0	1	0	188	188	375	562	188	265	56	0	171	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	153	14	3	0	0	15	48	7	8	1	92	206	111	317	20	130	27	8	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	179	148	23	6	0	1	20	40	7	8	1	155	286	216	502	61	200	22	11	242	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	119	21	3	1	0	11	42	14	12	3	176	319	218	538	42	269	29	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	146	113	30	5	1	1	17	36	14	12	3	265	424	354	778	88	377	25	12	364	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	104	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	135	217	144	362	10	311	51	6	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	115	100	22	2	0	1	11	41	4	2	0	220	322	270	592	50	362	36	10	282	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	268	235	39	5	0	4	22	102	5	7	1	166	252	238	490	72	259	38	8	231	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	268	226	50	7	0	6	31	75	5	7	1	221	328	332	660	111	291	28	12	299	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	179	155	14	3	0	0	15	48	7	8	1	90	206	110	315	19	129	27	8	165	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	120	21	3	1	0	11	42	14	12	3	175	319	217	536	42	245	29	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	103	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	136	217	146	363	10	305	51	6	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	268	239	39	5	0	4	22	102	5	7	1	163	252	234	486	71	254	38	8	231	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	146	120	21	3	1	0	11	42	14	12	3	175	319	217	536	42	245	29	8	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	115	103	14	1	0	0	7	59	4	2	0	136	217	146	363	10	305	51	6	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	268	239	39	5	0	4	22	102	5	7	1	163	252	234	486	71	254	38	8	231	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	378	341	67	12	2	6	29	107	5	7	2	195	269	289	558	94	262	28	8	256	59	-18	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	319	286	57	10	1	6	25	88	5	6	1	200	275	303	578	103	265	28	8	264	65	-13	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	402	361	74	13	2	8	32	109	6	8	2	204	279	314	593	110	267	27	8	270	69	-15	+1	+0	+4	+9	-0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	459	413	85	15	2	9	37	123	6	9	2	207	283	322	604	114	269	27	8	274	72	-15	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	489	439	92	17	2	10	40	130	7	10	2	210	285	327	612	117	270	27	8	277	74	-15	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	507	454	96	17	2	11	41	134	7	10	2	211	287	331	618	120	271	26	8	279	75	-15	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	513	459	97	18	2	11	42	136	7	10	2	210	286	328	614	118	271	27	8	278	74	-16	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	512	458	95	17	2	10	42	137	7	9	2	209	284	324	608	115	270	27	8	276	73	-17	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	505	453	94	17	2	10	41	136	6	8	2	206	281	318	599	112	269	27	8	272	70	-18	+1	-1	+5	+11	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	57%	496	447	90	16	2	9	40	136	6	7	2	204	278	311	589	107	267	27	8	268	67	-19	+1	-2	+5	+11	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	110	98	20	4	0	2	9	30	2	2	0	200	275	302	577	102	264	27	8	263	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	195	174	37	7	1	4	16	53	3	4	1	204	279	312	592	109	267	27	8	269	69	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	242	218	45	8	1	5	19	65	3	5	1	207	283	320	603	113	269	27	8	274	72	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	268	240	51	9	1	6	22	71	4	5	1	209	285	326	610	116	270	26	8	277	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	282	253	53	10	1	6	23	74	4	5	1	211	286	329	616	118	271	26	8	279	75	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	282	253	53	10	1	6	23	75	4	5	1	210	286	327	613	117	270	27	8	278	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	280	251	53	10	1	6	23	75	4	5	1	208	284	323	606	114	270	27	8	275	73	-9	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	269	242	49	9	1	5	22	73	3	4	1	206	281	317	598	111	269	27	8	272	70	-10	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	57%	283	255	52	10	1	5	23	77	3	4	1	203	278	310	587	106	267	27	8	267	67	-11	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2211	1984	413	77	8	45	180	593	30	39	8	208	284	323	607	115	272	27	8	273	65	-75	+5	-2	+24	+48	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	121	23	2	13	53	174	9	11	2	208	284	321	604	113	271	27	8	273	65	-22	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	5166	4611	913	160	19	92	415	1452	91	111	23	198	277	301	578	103	265	28	8	264	65	-156	+9	-4	+48	+97	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	115	20	2	12	52	183	11	14	3	198	276	302	578	103	265	28	8	264	65	-23	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.7	2,466	48	44	207	279	319	+26	+18	1.3	1.4
/162	664	13	12	+7.1	+4.8	0.3	pk7: 2
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Cabrera (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	36→41	47→52	54	193/267/286	93	262	4	5	28%	8%	59	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	40	39→45	53→55	52	192/277/280	88	229	6	14	19%	8%	61	-1.5	221/287/329	108	296	9	10	27%	6%	75	-0.5	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	174/218/258	84	255	7	7	34%	5%	32	-3.6	190/226/284	94	268	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Ricardo Hurtado 2024 · A	21	39→29	40→45	48→45	46	187/286/283	96	259	7	6	28%	8%	67	-1.1	184/278/286	102	279	10	4	35%	9%	63	-1.3	163/265/259	96	246	11	3	35%	10%	51	-1.2
✕Sammy Hernandez 2024 · A	20	37	43→40	51→50	40	188/254/301	113	262	11	5	31%	6%	57	-1.8	203/291/298	95	270	8	9	26%	9%	71	-0.8	201/300/298	97	262	9	13	24%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Chris Suero 2024 · A	20	41→38	41→45	50→55	50	196/295/291	95	281	8	8	31%	10%	71	-0.8	193/290/309	116	280	12	20	33%	10%	74	-0.6	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Jose D. Hernandez 2024 · A	21	38	39→45	47→45	49	183/269/272	89	233	6	8	23%	8%	57	-1.8	203/275/318	115	275	11	8	29%	7%	69	-0.9	170/260/288	119	235	15	5	33%	11%	53	-0.7
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	45→55	52→50	40	204/250/330	126	265	12	14	28%	5%	61	-1.5	189/238/351	162	266	20	4	37%	5%	63	-1.4	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	45→41	39→45	46→40	43	217/266/297	81	277	7	6	24%	6%	59	-1.6	224/295/328	104	296	9	4	26%	8%	78	-0.3	216/291/318	102	282	9	2	25%	8%	72	-0.4
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	40	39→45	50→40	53	189/279/278	88	244	6	9	23%	10%	61	-1.5	198/297/302	104	263	10	4	26%	12%	74	-0.5	187/288/292	105	240	12	2	26%	12%	67	-0.7
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	42	200/270/298	98	297	8	11	33%	8%	62	-1.4	192/261/284	92	292	6	14	34%	8%	55	-1.9	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Max George 2017 · A	21	40→39	40→45	47→55	44	191/279/286	95	286	8	10	33%	8%	64	-1.3	187/268/298	111	251	10	19	28%	7%	62	-1.4	166/254/289	123	223	13	23	31%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Oswaldo Linares 2024 · A	21	41	39→40	48→40	54	193/303/275	82	276	7	5	30%	12%	71	-0.8	183/267/260	77	267	6	4	31%	9%	53	-2.1	154/234/221	67	218	5	2	30%	8%	30	-1.2

Manuel Cabrera

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps