Hendry Chivilli — OGILVIE

Hendry Chivilli P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%22.2%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	7	5	14	60	15	10	0	71%	2.0	17.0%	20.8%	-3.8%	0.0%	2.51	4.30	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	7	5	14	60	15	10	0	71%	2.0	17.0%	20.8%	-3.8%	0.0%	2.51	4.30	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	7	5	14	60	15	10	0	71%	2.0	25.0%	16.7%	8.3%	0.0%	2.51	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	3	59	248	46	21	6	13%	2.6	13.2%	10.4%	2.9%	3.2%	4.14	5.04	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	23	3	59	248	46	21	6	13%	2.6	13.2%	10.4%	2.9%	3.2%	4.14	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	MIN	8	0	25	100	20	13	1	0%	3.1	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	1.0%	2.52	3.61	—
2026	20	A RAW	MIN	15	3	34	148	26	8	5	20%	2.2	17.6%	5.4%	12.2%	3.4%	5.35	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIN	58	0	60	255	58	35	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.7%	9.0%	2.9%	4.98	4.88	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	60	0	63	268	63	32	8	0%	1.1	23.6%	12.1%	11.6%	2.8%	4.72	4.57	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	63	0	66	278	68	31	8	0%	1.0	24.3%	11.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.50	4.36	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	285	71	29	8	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.32	4.21	+0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	65	0	68	288	73	28	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	2.8%	4.20	4.11	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	65	0	68	288	73	28	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.8%	15.7%	2.8%	4.13	4.09	+0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	64	0	67	284	72	28	8	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.13	4.13	+0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIN	62	0	65	275	70	28	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.18	4.21	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIN	29	0	30	127	29	17	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.7%	9.0%	2.9%	4.99	4.89	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	44	0	46	194	46	23	6	0%	1.0	23.6%	12.1%	11.6%	2.9%	4.73	4.58	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	52	0	55	232	57	26	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.0%	13.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.37	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57	0	60	253	63	26	7	0%	1.1	24.9%	10.3%	14.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.22	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	60	0	63	266	67	26	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	9.8%	15.4%	2.8%	4.21	4.12	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	61	0	64	270	69	26	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.8%	15.7%	2.8%	4.14	4.10	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	61	0	64	270	69	27	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.9%	15.6%	2.8%	4.14	4.14	+0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIN	59	0	62	262	66	26	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.19	4.22	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		422	0	443	1872	464	198	53	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.35	3.90	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	89	24	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.6%	14.3%	2.8%	4.35	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		30	8	73	308	43	38	8	27%	2.4	14.0%	12.4%	1.6%	2.6%	3.82	4.90	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	22	200	844	118	105	22	27%	2.4	14.0%	12.4%	1.6%	2.6%	3.82	4.90	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hendry Chivilli (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	22.2%	15.7%	2.9%	—	4.60	23.6%	11.4%	190	-0.61	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	87
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	87
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	82
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	82
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	81
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	81
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	81
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	80
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	80
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	80
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	80
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	80
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	80
Luigi Hernandez R 2022 · 4.28 FIP	18	SW	4.28	23.9%	18.6%	1.5%	.348	5.00	17.9%	-5.3%	57	+0.72	4.28	109	79
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	79
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	79
Doimil Perez R 2023 · 5.95 FIP	19	SU	5.95	17.8%	14.7%	4.5%	.322	5.36	16.6%	-2.0%	47	-0.59	3.32	139	78
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	78
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	59	24.6%	10.8%	1.09	4.40
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33