Luigi Hernandez — OGILVIE

Luigi Hernandez P Bradenton Marauders

+0.2 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.5%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%11.0%

IP57

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2029

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL PIT Gold	12	11	31	147	37	14	3	17.1%	11.9%	3.6%	7.18	5.12	-0.1
2022	18	A	Bradenton Marauders	13	2	25	114	36	17	2	23.9%	18.6%	1.6%	3.96	4.30	+0.2
2023	19	A	Bradenton Marauders	9	4	17	78	20	20	0	—	—	—	4.32	—	—
2024	20	A	Bradenton Marauders	23	1	57	285	69	56	2	17.9%	23.2%	0.9%	7.11	5.01	-0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	PIT	57	—	57	241	54	28	7	22.5%	11.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.60	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	PIT	59	—	59	250	58	26	7	23.3%	10.5%	2.8%	4.46	4.38	+0.4
2028	24	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	256	61	25	7	23.9%	9.8%	2.8%	4.33	4.24	+0.5
2029	25	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	259	63	24	7	24.2%	9.4%	2.8%	4.23	4.16	+0.6
2030	26	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	259	63	24	7	24.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.18	4.14	+0.6
2031	27	MLB	PIT	11	11	61	257	63	24	7	24.4%	9.4%	2.8%	4.16	4.15	+0.6
2032	28	MLB	PIT	60	—	60	253	62	24	7	24.4%	9.5%	2.8%	4.17	4.18	+0.5
2033	29	MLB	PIT	59	—	59	248	60	24	7	24.3%	9.6%	2.9%	4.20	4.22	+0.5
2034	30	MLB	PIT	57	—	57	240	58	23	7	24.1%	9.7%	2.9%	4.25	4.29	+0.4
2035	31	MLB	PIT	55	—	55	232	55	23	7	23.8%	9.8%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.4
2036	32	MLB	PIT	53	—	53	223	52	22	7	23.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.40	4.45	+0.3
2037	33	MLB	PIT	50	—	50	212	49	21	7	23.2%	10.1%	3.2%	4.49	4.55	+0.2
2038	34	MLB	PIT	48	—	48	202	46	21	7	22.9%	10.3%	3.3%	4.59	4.66	+0.2
2039	35	MLB	PIT	45	—	45	190	43	20	6	22.5%	10.5%	3.4%	4.70	4.78	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			57	18	130	624	123	125	10	19.8%	20.0%	1.5%	6.16	4.80	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—			88	28	200	960	189	192	15	19.8%	20.0%	1.5%	6.16	4.80	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luigi Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.5%	11.6%	2.8%	—	4.26	23.8%	13.9%	181	-0.34	—	—	—
William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	93
Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP	23	SW	4.23	23.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.312	5.10	22.3%	9.9%	93	+0.87	4.23	152	93
Noah Denoyer R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	93
David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	93
Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	93
Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	92
Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	92
Shane Broyles R 2027 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	21.9%	11.5%	2.3%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.20	3.30	218	91
Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	90
Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	89
Chay Yeager R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	22	SW	4.18	22.8%	10.3%	3.1%	.237	—	—	—	—	—	4.18	110	89
Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	89
Tanner Jacobson R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.90	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.10	168	89
Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	89
Mike Vasil R 2026 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.65	19.1%	9.4%	359	+1.01	3.64	429	89
Todd Van Steensel R 2028 · 3.78 FIP	24	SW	3.78	22.5%	11.6%	2.0%	.294	3.31	19.3%	6.5%	157	-0.47	2.87	223	89
Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	89
Colby Morris R 2028 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	89
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	89
Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	22	SW	4.39	19.5%	10.0%	3.1%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$7M