Yoeilin Cespedes
SS Greenville Drive| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKBOS | 105 | .319/.404/.615 | 5 | 3 | 95 | — | .232/.298/.453 |
| 2025 | 19 | ASalem Red Sox | 477 | .227/.295/.376 | 10 | 11 | 42 | — | .179/.231/.302 |
| 2026 | 20 | AA/A+BOS | 486 | .235/.297/.437 | 20 | 4 | 56 | — | .190/.232/.350 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBOS | 1 | .213/.256/.370 | 0 | 0 | 69 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 22 | MLBBOS | 156 | .219/.265/.384 | 5 | 2 | 75 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBBOS | 243 | .223/.271/.393 | 8 | 3 | 79 | 0.0 |
Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 209 | 191 | 66 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 396 | 560 | 956 | 215 | 368 | 11 | 7 | 414 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 105 | 91 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 319 | 404 | 615 | 1.019 | 297 | 353 | 18 | 11 | 436 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 477 | 428 | 97 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 101 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 227 | 295 | 376 | 671 | 150 | 269 | 21 | 9 | 297 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 108 | 100 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 241 | 300 | 541 | 110 | 246 | 27 | 6 | 244 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 342 | 85 | 22 | 1 | 18 | 29 | 94 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 249 | 313 | 477 | 789 | 228 | 286 | 25 | 8 | 343 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 209 | 196 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 246 | 311 | 558 | 107 | 225 | 14 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 105 | 95 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 298 | 453 | 751 | 221 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 477 | 441 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 141 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 179 | 231 | 302 | 533 | 122 | 231 | 30 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 108 | 103 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 213 | 272 | 485 | 97 | 240 | 32 | 5 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 378 | 354 | 69 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 123 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 195 | 238 | 373 | 611 | 178 | 240 | 33 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 209 | 196 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 246 | 311 | 558 | 107 | 224 | 14 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 209 | 191 | 66 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 346 | 396 | 560 | 956 | 215 | 368 | 11 | 7 | 414 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 105 | 95 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 298 | 453 | 751 | 221 | 277 | 26 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Red Sox | — | 105 | 91 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 319 | 404 | 615 | 1.019 | 297 | 353 | 18 | 11 | 436 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 477 | 441 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 141 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 179 | 231 | 302 | 533 | 122 | 236 | 30 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 477 | 428 | 97 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 101 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 227 | 295 | 376 | 671 | 150 | 269 | 21 | 9 | 297 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 456 | 87 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 159 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 191 | 234 | 353 | 588 | 162 | 246 | 33 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 486 | 442 | 104 | 27 | 1 | 20 | 36 | 123 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 235 | 297 | 437 | 733 | 201 | 277 | 25 | 7 | 321 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Red Sox Blue | — | 209 | 196 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 204 | 246 | 311 | 558 | 107 | 225 | 14 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 105 | 95 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 298 | 453 | 751 | 221 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 477 | 444 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 141 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 178 | 231 | 300 | 531 | 122 | 231 | 30 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 457 | 87 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 159 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 190 | 234 | 352 | 587 | 162 | 240 | 33 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 105 | 95 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 298 | 453 | 751 | 221 | 261 | 26 | 8 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 477 | 444 | 79 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 141 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 178 | 231 | 300 | 531 | 122 | 231 | 30 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 486 | 457 | 87 | 21 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 159 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 190 | 234 | 352 | 587 | 162 | 240 | 33 | 5 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BOS | 0% | 596 | 558 | 114 | 26 | 2 | 18 | 30 | 169 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 207 | 250 | 361 | 611 | 155 | 258 | 28 | 5 | 269 | 69 | -22 | -0 | -6 | +6 | +13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | BOS | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 213 | 256 | 370 | 627 | 157 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 69 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BOS | 35% | 451 | 422 | 90 | 20 | 2 | 15 | 24 | 123 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 259 | 375 | 633 | 162 | 260 | 27 | 5 | 279 | 75 | -14 | +0 | -4 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | BOS | 49% | 500 | 465 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 17 | 28 | 133 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 217 | 265 | 384 | 649 | 168 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 286 | 79 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +5 | +11 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 556 | 516 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 20 | 32 | 146 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 220 | 270 | 390 | 661 | 171 | 264 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -11 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 578 | 535 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 20 | 35 | 150 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 222 | 274 | 394 | 667 | 172 | 266 | 26 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -10 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +13 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | BOS | 56% | 590 | 544 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 21 | 37 | 152 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 223 | 276 | 394 | 670 | 171 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 295 | 86 | -10 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +13 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 590 | 545 | 121 | 26 | 2 | 21 | 37 | 153 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 222 | 275 | 392 | 667 | 170 | 267 | 26 | 6 | 294 | 85 | -11 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +13 | 0.6 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | BOS | 55% | 582 | 538 | 119 | 26 | 2 | 20 | 36 | 152 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 220 | 273 | 387 | 661 | 167 | 266 | 26 | 6 | 291 | 83 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +6 | +13 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 565 | 522 | 114 | 25 | 2 | 19 | 35 | 149 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 271 | 382 | 652 | 164 | 265 | 26 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -13 | -1 | -4 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | BOS | 53% | 552 | 510 | 110 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 34 | 148 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 215 | 267 | 375 | 642 | 159 | 263 | 27 | 6 | 284 | 78 | -14 | -1 | -4 | +6 | +12 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BOS | 35% | 156 | 146 | 32 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 265 | 384 | 648 | 165 | 270 | 28 | 5 | 285 | 75 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | BOS | 49% | 243 | 226 | 50 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 65 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 223 | 271 | 393 | 664 | 170 | 273 | 27 | 6 | 292 | 79 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 293 | 272 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 77 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 276 | 399 | 676 | 173 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 297 | 83 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 316 | 292 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 19 | 82 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 280 | 403 | 682 | 174 | 276 | 26 | 6 | 300 | 85 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | BOS | 56% | 328 | 303 | 69 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 85 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 229 | 282 | 403 | 685 | 174 | 278 | 26 | 6 | 302 | 86 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +4 | +7 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 325 | 300 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 84 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 228 | 281 | 401 | 682 | 172 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 300 | 85 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | BOS | 55% | 318 | 293 | 67 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 20 | 83 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 227 | 280 | 396 | 676 | 170 | 276 | 26 | 6 | 298 | 83 | -6 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 301 | 277 | 63 | 15 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 80 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 225 | 277 | 391 | 668 | 166 | 275 | 27 | 6 | 294 | 81 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | BOS | 53% | 290 | 269 | 59 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 18 | 78 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 222 | 273 | 384 | 657 | 162 | 274 | 27 | 6 | 290 | 78 | -8 | -1 | -2 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2570 | 2378 | 537 | 128 | 9 | 86 | 155 | 677 | 15 | 28 | 18 | 226 | 277 | 396 | 673 | 170 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 296 | 76 | -54 | -2 | -14 | +28 | +56 | 1.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 601 | 135 | 32 | 2 | 22 | 39 | 171 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 225 | 276 | 394 | 671 | 170 | 274 | 26 | 6 | 296 | 76 | -14 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6451 | 5982 | 1276 | 284 | 27 | 211 | 377 | 1722 | 35 | 74 | 51 | 213 | 264 | 376 | 640 | 162 | 261 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -114 | -4 | -30 | +55 | +112 | 1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 129 | 29 | 3 | 21 | 38 | 174 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 214 | 266 | 376 | 642 | 163 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 280 | 76 | -14 | -0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Greenville Drive · 378 PAwOBA .336 → .264 (−72)K% 24.9% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.87% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.79% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 15.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 6.96% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.979 | ×1.027 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 6.56% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .336 → .264; ISO .228 → .188; BABIP .286 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 108 PAwOBA .237 → .205 (−32)K% 26.9% → 32.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 4.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 17.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.993 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 2.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .237 → .205; ISO .110 → .089; BABIP .246 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ASalem Red Sox · 477 PAwOBA .293 → .231 (−61)K% 21.2% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.17% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.60% | ÷1.011 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.21% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.74% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.34% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.06% | ÷0.891 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .293 → .231; ISO .150 → .122; BABIP .269 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Red Sox · 105 PAwOBA .428 → .309 (−119)K% 18.1% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.10% | ÷1.026 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.43% | ÷0.968 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.06% | ÷0.993 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×1.008 | 14.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.89% | ÷1.061 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×1.008 | 9.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.980 | ×1.008 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.952 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 5.73% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 99, 2B 112, 3B 100, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .428 → .309; ISO .297 → .219; BABIP .353 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 209 PAwOBA .407 → .249 (−158)K% 11.5% → 14.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.48% | ÷0.984 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.70% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 4.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.55% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 15.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.98% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 5.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.40% | ÷0.964 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.59% | ÷0.924 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.84% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 93, K 97, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .407 → .249; ISO .215 → .118; BABIP .368 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).