Kevin Parada
C Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AANYM | 454 | .214/.306/.359 | 13 | 0 | 59 | — | .190/.262/.319 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA/AANYM | 424 | .245/.325/.407 | 11 | 6 | 71 | — | .217/.280/.351 |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA/AANYM | 356 | .251/.338/.367 | 6 | 7 | 63 | — | .214/.279/.298 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBNYM | 4 | .200/.265/.307 | 0 | 0 | 66 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBNYM | 78 | .203/.269/.320 | 2 | 1 | 70 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ42% MLB | 27 | MLBNYM | 117 | .204/.271/.321 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 41 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 276 | 475 | 414 | 889 | 138 | 412 | 29 | 24 | 403 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 60 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 254 | 389 | 643 | 204 | 241 | 38 | 7 | 281 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 382 | 340 | 90 | 21 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 96 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 265 | 342 | 447 | 789 | 182 | 336 | 25 | 8 | 349 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 200 | 77 | 277 | 167 | 47 | 13 | 153 | -50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 21 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 75 | 70 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 240 | 371 | 611 | 186 | 263 | 39 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 454 | 398 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 45 | 153 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 306 | 359 | 665 | 146 | 306 | 34 | 10 | 301 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 64 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 286 | 286 | 571 | 89 | 233 | 20 | 11 | 262 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 360 | 315 | 80 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 100 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 254 | 332 | 429 | 761 | 175 | 330 | 28 | 9 | 332 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 102 | 88 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 307 | 390 | 466 | 856 | 159 | 391 | 23 | 10 | 375 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 254 | 223 | 51 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 67 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 229 | 317 | 327 | 645 | 99 | 305 | 26 | 11 | 295 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 41 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 121 | 360 | 41 | 15 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 60 | 55 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 220 | 309 | 529 | 145 | 232 | 47 | 5 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 382 | 351 | 70 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 123 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 199 | 261 | 333 | 594 | 134 | 271 | 32 | 5 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 133 | 71 | 205 | 145 | 67 | 7 | 95 | -50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 454 | 411 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 178 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 262 | 319 | 580 | 129 | 288 | 39 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 64 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 190 | 254 | 276 | 530 | 86 | 235 | 25 | 8 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 360 | 324 | 72 | 20 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 120 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 222 | 284 | 364 | 648 | 142 | 303 | 33 | 7 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 102 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 264 | 330 | 374 | 704 | 110 | 345 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 254 | 232 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 82 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 258 | 267 | 525 | 73 | 282 | 32 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 41 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 212 | 350 | 333 | 683 | 121 | 375 | 41 | 15 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | St. Lucie Mets | — | 41 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 276 | 475 | 414 | 889 | 138 | 412 | 29 | 24 | 403 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 532 | 490 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 188 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 186 | 246 | 314 | 560 | 129 | 267 | 35 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 532 | 477 | 114 | 27 | 4 | 17 | 40 | 155 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 239 | 314 | 419 | 733 | 180 | 315 | 29 | 8 | 325 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 454 | 411 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 178 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 262 | 319 | 580 | 129 | 295 | 39 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 454 | 398 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 13 | 45 | 153 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 306 | 359 | 665 | 146 | 306 | 34 | 10 | 301 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 382 | 84 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 220 | 282 | 353 | 635 | 134 | 306 | 32 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 424 | 371 | 91 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 40 | 113 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 325 | 407 | 732 | 162 | 314 | 27 | 9 | 322 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 323 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 109 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 214 | 278 | 297 | 576 | 84 | 305 | 31 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 356 | 311 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 90 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 251 | 338 | 367 | 705 | 116 | 330 | 25 | 11 | 318 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 41 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 206 | 350 | 324 | 674 | 118 | 360 | 41 | 15 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 532 | 488 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 27 | 188 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 186 | 246 | 316 | 561 | 129 | 262 | 35 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 454 | 411 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 178 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 262 | 319 | 580 | 129 | 288 | 39 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 388 | 84 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 216 | 282 | 348 | 630 | 131 | 293 | 32 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 324 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 109 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 213 | 278 | 296 | 575 | 83 | 300 | 31 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 454 | 411 | 78 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 178 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 262 | 319 | 580 | 129 | 288 | 39 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 388 | 84 | 22 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 216 | 282 | 348 | 630 | 131 | 293 | 32 | 7 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 356 | 324 | 69 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 109 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 213 | 278 | 296 | 575 | 83 | 300 | 31 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 380 | 346 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 119 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 206 | 271 | 317 | 587 | 111 | 288 | 31 | 7 | 265 | 66 | -15 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 265 | 307 | 573 | 108 | 279 | 25 | 0 | 259 | 66 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 31% | 252 | 229 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 78 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 209 | 275 | 329 | 604 | 119 | 289 | 31 | 8 | 272 | 70 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYM | 42% | 279 | 254 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 85 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 210 | 276 | 330 | 606 | 120 | 288 | 30 | 8 | 273 | 71 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYM | 48% | 295 | 269 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 90 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 276 | 329 | 606 | 119 | 287 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB MLE | NYM | 49% | 296 | 270 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 276 | 327 | 603 | 117 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB MLE | NYM | 50% | 294 | 268 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 89 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 274 | 323 | 597 | 115 | 284 | 30 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 31% | 78 | 71 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 269 | 320 | 589 | 116 | 279 | 31 | 8 | 266 | 70 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYM | 42% | 117 | 106 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 271 | 321 | 591 | 117 | 279 | 31 | 8 | 267 | 71 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYM | 48% | 141 | 128 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 271 | 320 | 591 | 116 | 278 | 30 | 8 | 267 | 71 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB CTX | NYM | 49% | 146 | 133 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 270 | 318 | 588 | 115 | 277 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 70 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB CTX | NYM | 50% | 148 | 135 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 314 | 583 | 112 | 275 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 69 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 630 | 573 | 114 | 22 | 0 | 13 | 48 | 192 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 199 | 267 | 305 | 572 | 106 | 272 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 65 | -22 | +1 | -2 | +11 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 118 | 23 | 0 | 13 | 50 | 198 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 200 | 268 | 305 | 572 | 105 | 273 | 30 | 8 | 266 | 65 | -23 | +1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3433 | 3120 | 640 | 133 | 12 | 72 | 242 | 1126 | 39 | 26 | 10 | 205 | 271 | 325 | 595 | 120 | 292 | 33 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -59 | +1 | -4 | +29 | +35 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 121 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 46 | 213 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 205 | 271 | 325 | 595 | 120 | 290 | 33 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -24 | +0 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 254 PAwOBA .290 → .240 (−50)K% 26.4% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.38% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 22.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 5.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.983 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 2.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .290 → .240; ISO .099 → .078; BABIP .305 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 102 PAwOBA .369 → .311 (−58)K% 22.5% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.55% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.96% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 25.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 7.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .369 → .311; ISO .159 → .127; BABIP .391 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 360 PAwOBA .330 → .281 (−49)K% 27.8% → 33.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.17% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.11% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.40% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.70% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 9.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.65% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 3.71% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .330 → .281; ISO .175 → .145; BABIP .330 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 64 PAwOBA .260 → .228 (−32)K% 20.3% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.31% | ÷0.981 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.94% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.60% | ÷0.975 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 19.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.65% | ÷1.022 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 4.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.167 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .260 → .228; ISO .089 → .066; BABIP .233 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 454 PAwOBA .294 → .255 (−39)K% 33.7% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.70% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.69% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.04% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×1.027 | 21.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×0.957 | ×1.027 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×0.957 | ×1.027 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.31% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 5.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .294 → .255; ISO .146 → .132; BABIP .306 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 382 PAwOBA .342 → .255 (−87)K% 25.1% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.13% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.85% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 4.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.62% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.13% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 19.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.61% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.51% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.81% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .342 → .255; ISO .182 → .135; BABIP .336 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 60 PAwOBA .278 → .228 (−49)K% 38.3% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.33% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 46.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.13% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 16.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 8.50% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .278 → .228; ISO .204 → .163; BABIP .241 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 15 PAwOBA .151 → .095 (−56)K% 46.7% → 67.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 46.67% | ÷0.947 | ×1.360 | — | — | 67.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | — | 9.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | — | — | 14.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .151 → .095; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .167 → .145. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .