James Free — OGILVIE

James FreeC Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 S/R 6'1" / 205 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 170 proj PA

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .293 / .366

PA170

HR4

K%25

BB%7

ISO140

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	216	193	30	9	0	2	19	78	1	1	0	155	235	233	468	78	241	36	9	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	216	185	43	13	0	3	27	56	1	1	0	232	333	351	685	119	310	26	12	310	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	247	233	52	6	0	7	9	75	3	0	1	223	261	339	600	116	294	30	4	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	247	228	58	8	0	8	14	59	3	0	1	254	306	395	701	140	307	24	6	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	489	446	101	20	1	15	36	137	4	1	1	226	290	377	667	150	290	28	7	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	489	421	113	24	2	17	61	98	4	1	1	268	366	456	822	188	311	20	12	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	45	41	9	1	0	1	2	13	1	0	0	220	273	317	590	98	286	29	4	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	45	40	9	1	0	1	3	10	1	0	0	225	295	325	620	100	267	22	7	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	CIN	—	170	153	36	7	1	4	13	43	2	2	1	235	304	373	676	137	287	25	8	297	85	-3	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	CIN	28%	243	221	51	10	1	6	18	61	2	3	1	231	295	367	661	136	287	25	7	298	86	-4	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.6
2028	30	MLB	CIN	43%	290	263	60	12	1	7	22	73	3	3	1	228	295	361	656	133	286	25	8	297	85	-5	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.7
2029	31	MLB	CIN	52%	278	252	57	11	1	7	21	71	3	3	1	226	293	361	655	135	284	26	8	294	83	-5	+0	-3	+5	+8	0.5
2027	29	MLB	CIN	28%	68	62	14	3	0	2	5	17	1	1	0	226	294	371	665	145	290	25	7	294	83	-1	+0	-0	+1	+2	0.2
2028	30	MLB	CIN	43%	125	113	26	5	1	3	10	31	1	1	0	230	298	372	670	142	289	25	8	293	82	-2	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.3
2029	31	MLB	CIN	52%	145	132	31	6	1	4	11	37	1	2	0	235	299	386	685	152	287	26	8	290	80	-3	+0	-1	+3	+4	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	338	307	71	14	2	9	26	85	3	4	0	231	298	378	675	147	288	25	8	292	82	-7	+1	-3	+6	+10	0.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	136	27	4	17	50	163	6	8	0	231	297	376	673	146	287	25	8	292	82	-14	+2	-5	+12	+18	1.3
Career	—			—	1978	1802	396	76	5	49	140	551	19	13	6	220	283	349	632	129	286	28	7	281	74	-59	+0	-6	+35	+56	2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	130	25	2	16	46	181	6	4	2	220	282	350	632	130	286	28	7	281	74	-19	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	216	185	43	13	0	3	27	56	1	1	0	232	333	351	685	119	310	26	12	310	95	-1	+0	—	—	+6	0.5
2022	24	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	17	17	3	1	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	176	176	235	412	59	273	35	0	182	-2	-2	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2022	24	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	230	211	55	7	0	8	14	53	3	0	1	261	316	408	723	147	309	23	6	321	104	+1	-0	—	—	+7	0.7
2023	25	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	489	421	113	24	2	17	61	98	4	1	1	268	366	456	822	188	311	20	12	365	137	+21	-0	—	—	+14	3.5
2024	26	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	45	40	9	1	0	1	3	10	1	0	0	225	295	325	620	100	267	22	7	278	71	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	7	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
	/162	664	19	7	254	303	396	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	341	9	4	229	293	368	+6	+4	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	17	8	229	293	368	+11.9	+7.8	1.8	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
James Free (OGILVIE)	28	—	—	—	—	228/293/366	138	287	4	2	25%	7%	85	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2021 · MLB	28	46→48	49→50	48→45	49	233/301/374	141	274	17	6	22%	8%	90	+1.0	239/299/374	135	304	15	6	25%	8%	89	+1.0	230/288/355	125	295	14	6	26%	7%	76	+0.0
✕Jason Hagerty 2016 · AAA	28	46→50	45→50	46→40	44	230/293/356	126	298	13	6	27%	7%	82	+0.5	225/288/350	125	301	12	7	28%	6%	79	+0.3	206/275/327	120	279	9	0	28%	5%	63	-0.2
✕Héctor Sánchez 2017 · MLB	27	42→50	50	44→30	42	222/272/376	154	269	19	3	25%	6%	79	+0.3	229/276/393	164	283	21	5	27%	6%	85	+0.7	219/250/433	213	254	34	0	30%	4%	80	+0.1
✕John Hester 2011 · MLB	27	50	48→55	48→50	42	249/296/406	157	318	14	11	26%	6%	95	+1.4	208/266/322	114	288	12	5	30%	7%	62	-0.9	184/244/291	107	269	11	4	34%	7%	42	-1.0
✕Michael McKenry 2013 · MLB	28	44→47	50→55	43→40	47	225/294/378	153	281	17	3	26%	8%	88	+0.9	236/310/392	156	288	18	6	23%	9%	98	+1.6	228/310/373	145	276	16	5	23%	10%	91	+0.3
✕Matt Thaiss 2023 · MLB	28	46→50	51→55	52→45	48	234/303/394	160	290	18	8	26%	8%	96	+1.5	222/316/347	125	295	13	8	27%	11%	90	+1.0	207/323/309	102	281	10	5	27%	13%	81	+0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2023 · MLB	27	46→47	52→55	46→30	44	238/295/399	161	303	20	3	28%	7%	94	+1.3	232/286/372	140	298	15	4	26%	6%	83	+0.6	227/280/355	128	284	13	2	24%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Brad Davis 2011 · MLB	28	43	48→50	44→45	45	219/279/365	145	272	15	5	25%	7%	79	+0.3	213/262/323	110	282	10	6	27%	6%	59	-1.1	198/242/289	91	267	7	4	28%	5%	40	-1.0
✕Carlos Pérez 2019 · MLB	28	48→47	46→60	47→45	45	239/287/366	127	278	14	6	20%	6%	82	+0.5	215/260/389	174	234	23	4	20%	4%	77	+0.1	218/290/403	184	239	24	0	21%	8%	90	+0.7
✕Andrew Knapp 2020 · MLB	28	47→56	43→45	49→40	52	220/317/338	117	320	10	5	31%	12%	88	+0.9	212/297/338	126	299	13	4	31%	10%	79	+0.3	212/281/343	131	290	15	2	30%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Brian O'Keefe 2021 · AA	28	42→45	47→55	45→40	47	213/283/346	133	268	15	5	26%	8%	76	+0.0	224/278/392	168	301	22	5	32%	7%	85	+0.7	211/268/382	172	277	22	3	32%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Tim Olson 2006 · MLB	27	46	48→50	45→50	45	232/289/379	147	283	15	12	24%	7%	86	+0.8	225/268/357	132	293	15	12	27%	5%	71	-0.3	205/244/322	117	273	14	12	30%	5%	50	-0.7
✕Scott Kingery 2021 · MLB	27	45→51	50→55	51→55	43	229/285/393	164	294	17	13	28%	7%	89	+0.9	197/266/322	125	295	12	18	35%	8%	62	-0.9	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Juan Gonzalez 2009 · AA	27	48→53	46→45	46→50	46	237/302/366	129	298	14	7	25%	8%	89	+0.9	212/289/300	88	288	7	6	26%	9%	66	-0.6	185/273/224	39	265	0	4	27%	10%	40	-0.8
✕Chris Herrmann 2017 · MLB	29	47→48	47→50	57→50	46	230/294/372	142	295	13	11	26%	8%	86	+0.8	221/302/378	157	287	19	8	28%	10%	92	+1.2	209/296/361	152	272	19	4	29%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Anthony Recker 2013 · MLB	29	43→48	51→55	44→45	47	223/298/385	162	285	20	7	28%	9%	92	+1.2	210/278/372	162	283	21	6	32%	8%	80	+0.4	196/276/340	144	260	18	3	31%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Chase Lambin 2007 · AAA	28	46→50	50→55	43→45	45	234/292/393	159	283	17	6	24%	7%	91	+1.1	237/293/393	156	314	16	5	28%	7%	92	+1.2	224/278/369	146	298	15	5	29%	6%	76	+0.1
✕Maxwell Leon 2012 · AAA	28	46→55	51→50	53→50	44	237/290/403	166	278	17	8	22%	6%	92	+1.2	245/310/356	111	299	10	12	20%	6%	89	+0.9	249/313/358	109	312	11	12	22%	6%	87	+0.5
✕JD Closser 2008 · MLB	28	42	47→50	45	52	212/289/351	138	253	15	7	22%	10%	79	+0.3	209/273/306	97	265	9	6	23%	8%	60	-1.0	209/267/281	72	262	7	6	22%	7%	48	-0.9
✕Guillermo Rodriguez 2006 · AA	28	45	49→55	51→45	39	226/284/380	154	291	16	9	28%	5%	85	+0.7	229/292/373	144	266	15	6	20%	7%	86	+0.8	227/293/363	136	252	15	2	17%	7%	82	+0.1