Derniche Valdez
SS Myrtle Beach Pelicans| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKCHC | 64 | .271/.317/.508 | 2 | 2 | 42 | — | .167/.206/.300 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKCHC | 40 | .135/.200/.189 | 0 | 2 | -43 | — | .079/.125/.105 |
| 2026 | 20 | ACHC | 420 | .212/.250/.351 | 10 | 12 | 26 | — | .172/.202/.274 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBCHC | 493 | .199/.233/.307 | 9 | 9 | 49 | -0.4 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBCHC | 125 | .206/.243/.323 | 2 | 3 | 55 | -0.3 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBCHC | 198 | .210/.249/.332 | 4 | 4 | 59 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 44
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 125 | 107 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 51 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 234 | 333 | 477 | 810 | 243 | 365 | 41 | 12 | 351 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 64 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 317 | 508 | 826 | 237 | 359 | 30 | 6 | 352 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 40 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 135 | 200 | 189 | 389 | 54 | 227 | 38 | 8 | 184 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 420 | 396 | 84 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 120 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 212 | 250 | 351 | 601 | 139 | 274 | 29 | 4 | 264 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 125 | 112 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 125 | 203 | 241 | 444 | 116 | 223 | 50 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 64 | 60 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 206 | 300 | 506 | 133 | 277 | 44 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 40 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 125 | 105 | 230 | 26 | 180 | 55 | 5 | 105 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 420 | 401 | 69 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 163 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 172 | 202 | 274 | 476 | 102 | 258 | 39 | 3 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 125 | 112 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 125 | 203 | 241 | 444 | 116 | 224 | 50 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 125 | 107 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 51 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 234 | 333 | 477 | 810 | 243 | 365 | 41 | 12 | 351 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 64 | 60 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 206 | 300 | 506 | 133 | 281 | 44 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 64 | 59 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 317 | 508 | 826 | 237 | 359 | 30 | 6 | 352 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 40 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 125 | 105 | 230 | 26 | 188 | 55 | 5 | 105 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 40 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 135 | 200 | 189 | 389 | 54 | 227 | 38 | 8 | 184 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 420 | 401 | 69 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 163 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 172 | 202 | 274 | 476 | 102 | 264 | 39 | 3 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 420 | 396 | 84 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 120 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 212 | 250 | 351 | 601 | 139 | 274 | 29 | 4 | 264 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cubs Blue | — | 125 | 113 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 124 | 203 | 239 | 442 | 115 | 223 | 50 | 8 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 64 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 164 | 206 | 295 | 501 | 131 | 277 | 44 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 40 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 125 | 105 | 230 | 26 | 180 | 55 | 5 | 105 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 420 | 402 | 69 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 163 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 172 | 202 | 274 | 476 | 102 | 258 | 39 | 3 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 64 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 164 | 206 | 295 | 501 | 131 | 277 | 44 | 5 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 40 | 38 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 79 | 125 | 105 | 230 | 26 | 180 | 55 | 5 | 105 | -43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 420 | 402 | 69 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 163 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 172 | 202 | 274 | 476 | 102 | 258 | 39 | 3 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | CHC | 0% | 493 | 469 | 93 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 138 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 199 | 233 | 307 | 540 | 107 | 260 | 28 | 3 | 240 | 49 | -30 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | CHC | 34% | 364 | 344 | 70 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 100 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 204 | 241 | 320 | 561 | 116 | 262 | 27 | 4 | 249 | 55 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.7 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | CHC | 48% | 408 | 385 | 81 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 110 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 208 | 247 | 329 | 576 | 121 | 265 | 27 | 4 | 256 | 59 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | CHC | 53% | 455 | 428 | 90 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 121 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 211 | 252 | 336 | 588 | 125 | 267 | 27 | 4 | 261 | 63 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | CHC | 55% | 492 | 462 | 97 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 130 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 213 | 256 | 340 | 597 | 128 | 268 | 26 | 5 | 265 | 65 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | CHC | 56% | 502 | 469 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 131 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 214 | 259 | 343 | 603 | 129 | 269 | 26 | 5 | 268 | 67 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 55% | 504 | 471 | 101 | 19 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 133 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 213 | 258 | 341 | 599 | 128 | 269 | 26 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | CHC | 34% | 125 | 118 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 243 | 323 | 565 | 117 | 266 | 27 | 4 | 251 | 55 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | CHC | 48% | 198 | 186 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 210 | 249 | 332 | 580 | 122 | 268 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 59 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | CHC | 53% | 240 | 226 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 64 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 254 | 338 | 592 | 126 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 263 | 63 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | CHC | 55% | 269 | 253 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 71 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 215 | 258 | 343 | 601 | 128 | 271 | 26 | 4 | 267 | 65 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | CHC | 56% | 279 | 262 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 73 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 216 | 261 | 346 | 607 | 130 | 272 | 26 | 5 | 269 | 67 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 55% | 277 | 260 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 73 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 215 | 260 | 343 | 603 | 128 | 272 | 26 | 5 | 268 | 66 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1388 | 1305 | 277 | 53 | 11 | 29 | 61 | 368 | 11 | 30 | 8 | 212 | 253 | 336 | 590 | 124 | 271 | 27 | 4 | 264 | 55 | -60 | +3 | +0 | +15 | +30 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 611 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 172 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 213 | 254 | 339 | 593 | 126 | 271 | 26 | 4 | 264 | 55 | -28 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3584 | 3369 | 675 | 124 | 26 | 76 | 156 | 1059 | 28 | 79 | 28 | 200 | 242 | 320 | 562 | 120 | 266 | 30 | 4 | 249 | 55 | -132 | +5 | +0 | +31 | +64 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 611 | 122 | 22 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 192 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 200 | 241 | 321 | 561 | 121 | 264 | 30 | 4 | 249 | 55 | -29 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 420 PAwOBA .259 → .206 (−53)K% 28.6% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 2.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 19.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 4.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .259 → .206; ISO .139 → .105; BABIP .274 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Cubs · 40 PAwOBA .180 → .105 (−75)K% 37.5% → 55.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.969 | ×1.440 | — | — | 55.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷0.983 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 11.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷0.973 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.089 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.868 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .180 → .105; ISO .054 → .029; BABIP .227 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Cubs · 64 PAwOBA .348 → .231 (−117)K% 29.7% → 43.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.69% | ÷0.989 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.947 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.022 | 16.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.903 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 8.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 3.20% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 4.26% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .348 → .231; ISO .237 → .156; BABIP .359 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 125 PAwOBA .347 → .200 (−146)K% 40.8% → 49.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.80% | ÷1.004 | ×1.220 | — | — | 49.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.80% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷0.972 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 15.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.996 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.017 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 2.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 5.15% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .347 → .200; ISO .243 → .115; BABIP .365 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).