Derniche Valdez — OGILVIE

Derniche ValdezSS Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION300 act + 200 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†35

AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .227 / .311

PA200

HR4

SB5

K%32

BB%3

BABIP268

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE37

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	113	15	2	1	4	9	73	1	4	4	133	203	274	478	142	289	58	7	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	107	25	4	2	6	15	51	1	4	4	234	333	477	810	243	365	41	12	351	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	64	60	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	167	206	300	506	133	281	44	5	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	64	59	16	4	2	2	4	19	0	2	1	271	317	508	826	237	359	30	6	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	23	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	200	57	5	102	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	40	37	5	2	0	0	3	15	0	2	5	135	200	189	389	54	227	38	8	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	CHC	—	300	289	49	7	3	5	7	118	2	10	2	170	195	266	461	97	262	39	2	198	10	-31	+1	+0	+3	+8	-1.8
YTD	20	A	CHC	—	300	285	61	9	4	7	11	83	2	10	2	214	248	347	596	133	274	28	4	263	59	-14	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.1
ROS	20	A	CHC	0%	200	190	37	6	2	4	6	64	2	5	1	195	227	311	538	116	264	32	3	231	35	-15	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.6
ROS	20	MLB	CHC	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		265	—	—	227	32	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	CHC	—	300	290	49	7	3	5	7	118	2	10	2	169	195	266	460	97	260	39	2	198	10	-31	+1	+0	+3	+8	-1.8
TOT	20	A	CHC	—	500	479	86	13	5	9	13	182	4	15	3	180	208	284	492	104	265	36	3	211	20	-45	+2	+0	+5	+14	-2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CHC	34%	552	521	104	18	4	12	21	170	5	11	3	200	238	319	556	119	266	31	4	246	47	-33	+1	+0	+6	+16	-1.1
2028	22	MLB	CHC	48%	567	532	109	19	4	14	25	170	5	12	3	205	247	335	582	130	269	30	4	256	54	-29	+1	+0	+6	+16	-0.6
2027	21	MLB	CHC	34%	190	179	35	6	1	4	7	59	2	4	1	196	234	307	541	112	268	31	4	241	43	-12	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.5
2028	22	MLB	CHC	48%	275	259	53	9	2	7	12	82	2	6	1	205	245	336	581	131	271	30	4	251	51	-15	+1	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	465	439	88	15	3	11	19	141	4	10	2	200	241	323	564	123	266	30	4	247	47	-28	+1	+0	+5	+13	-0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	614	122	21	4	15	27	197	6	14	3	199	241	319	560	121	264	30	4	247	47	-39	+2	+0	+7	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	1548	1454	278	49	12	35	66	528	13	36	17	191	233	314	546	122	270	34	4	240	42	-101	+0	+0	+17	+44	-4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	611	117	21	5	15	28	222	5	15	7	191	233	316	549	124	270	34	4	240	42	-43	+0	+0	+7	+18	-1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	107	25	4	2	6	15	51	1	4	4	234	333	477	810	243	365	41	12	351	126	+4	-1	—	—	+4	0.7
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	64	59	16	4	2	2	4	19	0	2	1	271	317	508	826	237	359	30	6	352	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	40	37	5	2	0	0	3	15	0	2	5	135	200	189	389	54	227	38	8	184	-1	-5	-2	—	—	+1	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	596	13	12	204	241	326	+6	+6	-0.9	-0.4
	/162	664	15	13	204	241	326	+7.1	+6.7	-1.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derniche Valdez (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	41→46	49→54	37	180/208/284	104	265	9	15	36%	3%	20	-2.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/248/282	94	270	8	13	32%	6%	43	-2.2	195/260/276	81	313	7	10	37%	7%	47	-1.9	186/257/265	79	290	10	10	37%	7%	41	-1.1
✕Brayan Buelvas 2022 · A	20	38→40	44→50	51→55	40	195/255/315	120	270	12	13	32%	6%	55	-1.4	189/251/317	128	263	13	17	32%	6%	54	-1.4	182/244/294	112	275	11	14	36%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	60	-1.0	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	39→35	40	52→50	40	193/252/284	91	274	7	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	201/271/278	77	305	4	8	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	36→34	45→50	54→50	37	187/249/310	124	268	12	13	34%	6%	52	-1.6	201/258/355	154	293	19	14	37%	6%	68	-0.5	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Kevin Made 2023 · A	20	42→37	43→45	49→50	40	209/262/322	113	285	11	5	30%	6%	59	-1.1	201/263/291	90	280	6	8	28%	7%	52	-1.6	194/257/267	73	267	4	9	27%	7%	41	-1.5
✕Kelvin Diaz 2023 · A	20	37	43→50	56→60	36	185/253/297	112	281	10	19	36%	6%	50	-1.7	173/244/264	91	301	8	23	42%	7%	38	-2.6	140/212/218	79	253	8	29	45%	7%	12	-1.4
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→28	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	43	-2.2	211/277/317	106	330	9	15	36%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/311	118	287	12	16	35%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Juan Carlos Negret 2019 · A	20	36→26	43→45	48→50	36	184/249/295	111	273	11	12	35%	5%	48	-1.9	165/236/279	114	275	13	6	42%	6%	39	-2.5	127/201/251	124	190	17	2	43%	7%	17	-2.1
✕Jalen Miller 2017 · A	20	37→43	39→50	50	37	186/225/272	86	250	6	9	28%	4%	30	-3.1	199/241/308	109	268	10	9	29%	5%	46	-2.0	181/240/315	134	234	16	18	30%	7%	46	-1.3
✕Leonel Espinoza 2023 · A	20	38→44	40	50→55	41	188/259/274	86	266	7	11	31%	6%	46	-2.0	209/272/298	89	302	7	14	31%	6%	58	-1.2	202/259/293	90	292	8	18	32%	5%	47	-1.0
✕Miguel Rico 2014 · A	20	35	43→50	45→40	37	183/247/288	105	265	12	5	35%	6%	46	-2.0	199/267/298	99	241	10	4	21%	6%	56	-1.3	184/261/270	86	199	9	1	13%	6%	46	-0.9
✕Misael Urbina 2022 · A	20	36→29	40→45	51→50	48	177/255/271	94	227	7	13	24%	8%	44	-2.1	175/249/266	91	263	6	10	33%	8%	40	-2.4	157/237/236	79	247	5	10	36%	9%	25	-2.0
✕Junior Tilien 2023 · A	20	35→36	45→40	50→40	37	187/232/304	117	264	13	4	34%	5%	42	-2.3	188/247/284	96	259	8	4	29%	7%	43	-2.2	179/243/262	83	244	6	2	27%	7%	34	-1.6
✕Ericson Leonora 2013 · A	20	37→29	43→50	47→50	40	190/242/293	104	249	11	7	28%	6%	44	-2.1	203/243/336	133	293	14	5	35%	4%	56	-1.3	191/222/342	151	278	18	2	38%	3%	45	-0.9
✕Audy Ciriaco 2007 · A	20	36→46	41→50	53→50	36	186/222/282	96	250	10	10	30%	4%	31	-3.0	201/228/285	84	256	7	8	24%	3%	33	-2.9	199/244/316	117	238	12	5	22%	5%	48	-1.0
✕Anderson Franco 2018 · A	20	34→27	44→45	46→40	39	180/222/289	109	228	13	4	27%	5%	33	-2.9	197/249/286	89	262	7	4	26%	6%	44	-2.1	196/252/265	70	259	4	2	25%	7%	39	-1.1
✕Sthervin Matos 2014 · A	20	39→34	41→50	51→50	41	191/255/287	96	257	8	13	28%	6%	48	-1.9	183/228/276	93	262	9	12	32%	5%	33	-2.9	166/211/247	81	240	8	12	34%	5%	16	-1.9
✕Emmanuel Solis 2009 · A	20	36	41→45	48→50	40	181/230/272	90	246	9	8	30%	6%	33	-2.9	188/239/274	86	289	8	9	36%	6%	37	-2.6	114/160/166	52	205	7	12	46%	4%	-25	-1.3