Derniche Valdez

SS Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKCHC64.271/.317/.5082242—.167/.206/.300
202519ROKCHC40.135/.200/.18902-43—.079/.125/.105
202620ACHC420.212/.250/.351101226—.172/.202/.274
2027PROJMLE21MLBCHC493.199/.233/.3079949-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBCHC125.206/.243/.3232355-0.3
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBCHC198.210/.249/.3324459-0.3
Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed85
ISO53
K%26
Z-Con%21
Whiff%18
wRC+15
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsJohan Mieses (age 21) · Jase Bowen (age 21) · Steven Baron (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†49
AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .231 / .304
PA210
HR4
K%28
BB%3
ISO107
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -12.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-13BATRUN: +0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 44
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER44
scouting grade only
EYE37
scouting grade only
SPEED54
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.8M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Cubs Blue — 125107 25426 15511 44 234333477810 243365 4112 351 22 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Cubs — 6459 16422 4190 21 271317508826 237359 306 352 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Cubs — 4037 5200 3150 25 135200189389 54227 388 184 -43 — — — — — —
202620 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 420396 8413610 171203 122 212250351601 139274 294 264 26 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 125112 14213 10621 44 125203241444 116223 508 200 22 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6460 10311 3280 21 167206300506 133277 445 231 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 4038 3100 2220 25 79125105230 26180 555 105 -43 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 420401 691057 121633 122 172202274476 102258 393 206 26 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 125112 14213 10621 44 125203241444 116224 508 200 22 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Cubs Blue — 125107 25426 15511 44 234333477810 243365 4112 351 22 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6460 10311 3280 21 167206300506 133281 445 231 42 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 6459 16422 4190 21 271317508826 237359 306 352 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 4038 3100 2220 25 79125105230 26188 555 105 -43 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWACL Cubs — 4037 5200 3150 25 135200189389 54227 388 184 -43 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 420401 691057 121633 122 172202274476 102264 393 206 26 — — — — — —
202620 A RAWMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 420396 8413610 171203 122 212250351601 139274 294 264 26 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Cubs Blue — 125113 14213 10621 44 124203239442 115223 508 200 22 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6461 10311 3280 21 164206295501 131277 445 231 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 4038 3100 2220 25 79125105230 26180 555 105 -43 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 420402 691057 121633 122 172202274476 102258 393 206 26 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 6461 10311 3280 21 164206295501 131277 445 231 42 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Cubs — 4038 3100 2220 25 79125105230 26180 555 105 -43 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEMyrtle Beach Pelicans — 420402 691057 121633 122 172202274476 102258 393 206 26 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLECHC 0% 493469 931739 171384 92 199233307540 107260 283 240 49 -30 +1 +0 +5 +11 -0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLECHC 34% 364344 701337 141003 72 204241320561 116262 274 249 55 -20 +1 +0 +4 +8 -0.7
202923 MLB MLECHC 48% 408385 811539 171103 82 208247329576 121265 274 256 59 -20 +1 +0 +4 +9 -0.6
203024 MLB MLECHC 53% 455428 9017310 201214 102 211252336588 125267 274 261 63 -20 +1 +0 +5 +10 -0.4
203125 MLB MLECHC 55% 492462 9718311 231304 103 213256340597 128268 265 265 65 -20 +1 +0 +5 +11 -0.4
203226 MLB MLECHC 56% 502469 10119312 241314 103 214259343603 129269 265 268 67 -20 +1 +0 +5 +11 -0.3
203327 MLB MLECHC 55% 504471 10119312 241334 103 213258341599 128269 265 266 66 -20 +1 +0 +5 +11 -0.3
202822 MLB CTXCHC 34% 125118 24512 5341 31 206243323565 117266 274 251 55 -7 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.3
202923 MLB CTXCHC 48% 198186 39724 8532 41 210249332580 122268 274 258 59 -10 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.3
203024 MLB CTXCHC 53% 240226 48925 10642 51 213254338592 126270 274 263 63 -11 +1 +0 +3 +5 -0.2
203125 MLB CTXCHC 55% 269253 541026 12712 61 215258343601 128271 264 267 65 -11 +1 +0 +3 +6 -0.2
203226 MLB CTXCHC 56% 279262 561126 13732 62 216261346607 130272 265 269 67 -11 +0 +0 +3 +6 -0.1
203327 MLB CTXCHC 55% 277260 561126 13732 62 215260343603 128272 265 268 66 -11 +0 +0 +3 +6 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 13881305 277531129 6136811 308 212253336590 124271 274 264 55 -60 +3 +0 +15 +30 -1.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650611 13025514 291725 144 213254339593 126271 264 264 55 -28 +1 +0 +7 +14 -0.6
Career— MLE — 35843369 6751242676 156105928 7928 200242320562 120266 304 249 55 -132 +5 +0 +31 +64 -3.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650611 12222514 281925 145 200241321561 121264 304 249 55 -29 +1 +0 +7 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 420 PAwOBA .259 → .206 (−53)K% 28.6% → 38.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.57%÷1.000×1.360——38.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.05%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0302.88%
HBP% /PA0.71%—×0.780—×1.0300.57%
Singles /BIP19.93%÷1.000×0.920×1.019×1.03019.25%
Doubles /BIP4.71%÷1.000×0.830×1.019×1.0304.11%
Triples /BIP2.17%÷1.000×0.910×1.019×1.0302.08%
Home runs /BIP3.62%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0302.99%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .259 → .206; ISO .139 → .105; BABIP .274 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Cubs · 40 PAwOBA .180 → .105 (−75)K% 37.5% → 55.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA37.50%÷0.969×1.440——55.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.50%÷0.983×0.620—×1.0084.77%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP13.64%÷1.004×0.820—×1.00811.22%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷0.973×0.720—×1.0086.78%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.089×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.868×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 101, 2B 95, 3B 118, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .180 → .105; ISO .054 → .029; BABIP .227 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Cubs · 64 PAwOBA .348 → .231 (−117)K% 29.7% → 43.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.69%÷0.989×1.440——43.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.25%÷0.947×0.620—×1.0224.18%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.047×0.820—×1.02216.01%
Doubles /BIP10.00%÷0.903×0.720—×1.0228.15%
Triples /BIP5.00%÷1.150×0.720—×1.0223.20%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷0.935×0.780—×1.0224.26%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 109, 2B 81, 3B 130, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .348 → .231; ISO .237 → .156; BABIP .359 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Cubs Blue · 125 PAwOBA .347 → .200 (−146)K% 40.8% → 49.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA40.80%÷1.004×1.220——49.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.022×0.700—×1.0228.40%
HBP% /PA0.80%—×0.700—×1.0220.57%
Singles /BIP23.21%÷0.972×0.680×0.950×1.02215.77%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.996×0.600×0.950×1.0224.18%
Triples /BIP3.57%÷1.017×0.600×0.950×1.0222.05%
Home runs /BIP10.71%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0225.15%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 103, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .200; ISO .243 → .115; BABIP .365 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).