Derniche Valdez — OGILVIE

Derniche ValdezSS Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION420 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†39

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .111 / .111

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%4

BABIP263

ISO113

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE37

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	107	25	4	2	6	15	51	1	4	4	234	333	477	810	243	365	41	12	351	123	+3	-1	—	—	+3	0.5
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	64	59	16	4	2	2	4	19	0	2	1	271	317	508	826	237	359	30	6	352	125	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	40	37	5	2	0	0	3	15	0	2	5	135	200	189	389	54	227	38	8	184	11	-4	-2	—	—	+1	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	113	15	2	1	4	9	73	1	4	4	133	203	274	478	142	269	58	7	202	23	-11	-1	—	—	+3	-1.0
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	60	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	167	206	300	506	133	271	44	5	227	40	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	179	55	5	105	-43	-7	-2	—	—	+1	-0.8
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	113	15	2	1	4	9	73	1	4	4	133	203	274	478	142	289	58	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	107	25	4	2	6	15	51	1	4	4	234	333	477	810	243	365	41	12	351	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	60	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	167	206	300	506	133	281	44	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	64	59	16	4	2	2	4	19	0	2	1	271	317	508	826	237	359	30	6	352	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	188	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	40	37	5	2	0	0	3	15	0	2	5	135	200	189	389	54	227	38	8	184	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	114	15	2	1	4	9	73	1	4	4	132	203	272	475	140	269	58	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	61	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	164	206	295	501	131	271	44	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	179	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	114	15	2	1	4	9	73	1	4	4	132	203	272	475	140	269	58	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	61	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	164	206	295	501	131	271	44	5	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	179	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	A MLE	CHC	—	420	402	66	9	4	8	11	171	3	12	2	164	192	266	458	102	256	41	3	199	21	-40	+2	+0	+4	+9	-2.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A RAW	CHC	—	420	396	84	13	6	10	17	120	3	12	2	212	250	351	601	139	274	29	4	264	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	A MLE	CHC	0%	9	9	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	111	111	111	222		261	33	0	226	39	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	20	A MLE	CHC	—	429	411	67	9	4	8	11	174	3	12	2	163	191	263	453	100	253	41	3	200	21	-40	+2	+0	+5	+9	-2.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	363	343	67	12	3	8	14	117	3	7	2	195	233	318	551	122	267	32	4	243	51	-21	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.9
2027	21	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	125	118	23	4	1	3	5	40	1	2	1	195	234	322	556	127	269	32	4	238	51	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	125	118	23	4	1	3	5	40	1	2	1	195	234	322	556	127	263	32	4	238	37	-7	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	614	120	21	5	16	26	208	5	10	5	195	234	324	558	129	263	32	4	238	37	-38	+0	+0	+7	+14	-1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	601	563	96	18	5	13	28	243	4	15	12	171	215	290	505	119	266	40	5	224	37	-22	+1	+0	+4	+8	-0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	609	103	19	5	14	30	263	4	16	13	169	213	286	498	117	264	40	5	224	37	-38	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2John McDonaldlast yr '14 career totals — 13 seasons, 2,596 PA	3.9	2,596	28	34	233	273	324	+20	+54	4.2	5.1
/162	664	7	9	+5.0	+13.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	257	5	5	202	236	320	+3	+3	-0.4	-0.2
/162	664	14	13	+7.1	+7.8	-1.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derniche Valdez (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	41→46	49→54	37	183/215/290	106	261	3	3	34%	3%	39	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/249/281	94	269	8	13	32%	6%	51	-2.3	196/261/274	78	315	7	10	37%	7%	53	-2.1	188/258/263	75	295	9	10	37%	7%	47	-1.2
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	65	-1.2	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	61	-0.3
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Kevin Made 2023 · A	20	42→36	43→45	49→50	41	207/260/316	109	280	10	5	29%	6%	62	-1.4	198/260/283	85	272	6	8	28%	7%	55	-2.0	191/255/258	67	260	4	9	26%	7%	45	-1.7
✕Junior Tilien 2023 · A	20	37	45	50→40	38	192/239/307	115	268	13	4	33%	6%	52	-2.2	194/251/293	99	264	9	4	28%	7%	53	-2.1	186/247/274	88	250	7	2	27%	7%	45	-1.5
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	40→37	40	52→50	40	195/254/288	93	274	7	14	31%	6%	53	-2.1	201/272/277	76	304	4	8	32%	8%	58	-1.7	190/273/260	70	294	3	7	33%	10%	51	-1.4
✕Leonel Espinoza 2023 · A	20	39→44	41→40	50→55	41	191/263/288	96	267	9	11	31%	7%	57	-1.8	210/273/299	89	302	7	14	31%	6%	63	-1.3	208/265/289	81	298	7	18	31%	5%	55	-1.1
✕Juan Carlos Negret 2019 · A	20	36→26	43→50	48→50	36	184/249/295	111	273	11	12	35%	5%	54	-2.0	167/238/285	118	279	14	6	43%	6%	49	-2.4	130/208/263	134	192	19	2	43%	7%	32	-2.0
✕Brayan Buelvas 2022 · A	20	37→43	45	51→55	40	193/254/318	125	267	13	13	32%	6%	61	-1.5	189/251/316	127	262	13	17	32%	6%	59	-1.6	197/258/324	127	284	12	14	34%	7%	60	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→29	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	49	-2.4	210/275/314	104	329	8	15	36%	7%	68	-1.0	190/253/306	116	287	12	16	36%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Audy Ciriaco 2007 · A	20	36→46	41→45	53→50	36	186/222/282	96	250	10	10	30%	4%	39	-3.1	201/228/285	84	256	7	8	24%	3%	41	-3.0	198/244/309	111	240	11	5	22%	5%	52	-1.2
✕Ericson Leonora 2013 · A	20	37→30	43→45	47→50	40	190/242/293	104	249	11	7	28%	6%	51	-2.3	201/241/327	126	292	13	5	35%	4%	57	-1.8	188/219/325	137	280	16	2	38%	3%	47	-1.1
✕Miguel Rico 2014 · A	20	35	43→50	45→40	37	183/247/288	105	265	12	5	35%	6%	52	-2.2	199/267/298	99	241	10	4	21%	6%	61	-1.5	184/261/270	86	199	9	1	13%	6%	53	-0.9
✕Kelvin Diaz 2023 · A	20	37	42→50	55→60	36	183/250/290	107	281	9	19	36%	5%	53	-2.1	173/244/263	90	299	8	23	41%	7%	45	-2.7	142/213/220	78	253	8	29	44%	7%	23	-1.4
✕Sthervin Matos 2015 · A	21	36→34	45→50	51→50	35	191/228/308	117	251	13	11	30%	4%	48	-2.5	182/232/268	86	272	8	11	34%	5%	40	-3.0	162/217/233	71	247	6	13	35%	6%	25	-2.1
✕Anderson Franco 2018 · A	20	34→28	43→40	46→40	40	180/224/286	106	230	11	4	28%	5%	42	-2.9	197/249/284	87	262	7	4	26%	6%	51	-2.3	195/252/263	68	257	4	2	24%	7%	45	-1.1
✕Hendrik Clementina 2017 · A	20	39	41→50	46→30	37	195/241/284	90	276	9	5	32%	5%	47	-2.5	207/252/328	121	294	14	3	33%	5%	62	-1.4	186/230/304	119	280	17	1	39%	5%	46	-0.9
✕Emmanuel Solis 2009 · A	20	36	41→45	48→50	40	181/230/272	90	246	9	8	30%	6%	40	-3.0	188/239/274	86	289	8	9	36%	6%	45	-2.7	114/160/166	52	205	7	12	46%	4%	-11	-1.3
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	38→36	45→50	54→50	38	193/255/316	124	276	12	13	34%	6%	61	-1.5	204/262/352	148	296	18	14	36%	6%	72	-0.7	194/255/352	157	279	21	15	37%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Misael Urbina 2022 · A	20	36→30	39→45	51→50	48	178/255/268	89	228	6	13	24%	8%	50	-2.3	175/249/266	91	260	6	10	32%	8%	47	-2.5	158/245/237	79	236	5	8	32%	9%	37	-1.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps