Dawel Serda

P ACL D-backs

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKARI	11	8	34	5.82	5.04	18.8%	12.8%	—	K 12.8% · BB 15.9% · FIP 6.99
2025	20	ROKARI	6	1	13	4.26	2.15	16.7%	3.7%	—	K 11.3% · BB 4.6% · FIP 2.73
2027PROJ	22	MLBARI	2	2	11	4.53	4.53	21.4%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBARI	2	2	10	4.42	4.36	22.4%	9.1%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsHunter Gregory (age 23) · Chad Donato (age 22) · Casey Legumina (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%21.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	12	10	39	173	43	22	2	83%	3.2	16.9%	15.9%	1.0%	1.6%	4.15	4.54	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	12	10	39	173	43	22	2	83%	3.2	24.9%	12.7%	12.1%	1.2%	4.15	3.25	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	8	34	149	28	19	5	73%	3.1	12.8%	15.9%	-3.2%	5.4%	5.82	6.99	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	8	34	149	28	19	5	73%	3.1	12.8%	15.9%	-3.2%	5.4%	5.82	6.99	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	8	34	149	28	19	5	73%	3.1	18.8%	12.8%	6.0%	3.4%	5.82	5.04	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	13	54	9	2	0	17%	2.1	11.3%	4.6%	6.7%	0.0%	4.26	2.73	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	6	1	13	54	9	2	0	17%	2.1	11.3%	4.6%	6.7%	0.0%	4.26	2.73	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	6	1	13	54	9	2	0	17%	2.1	16.7%	3.7%	13.0%	0.0%	4.26	2.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ARI	2	2	11	46	10	4	1	100%	5.5	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	4	4	20	84	19	8	2	100%	5.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.42	4.36	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	5.0	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.42	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	9	4	1	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.42	3.98	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	183	81	20	100%	5.3	22.4%	9.1%	13.3%	2.9%	4.42	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		29	19	86	376	54	54	11	66%	3.0	14.5%	14.3%	0.2%	2.8%	4.83	5.25	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	44	200	878	127	125	25	66%	3.0	14.5%	14.3%	0.2%	2.8%	4.83	5.25	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dawel Serda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	21.4%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.36	22.4%	13.3%	20	-0.17	—	—	—
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	79
Rico Garcia R 2017 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	18.8%	7.0%	1.8%	.316	4.07	19.8%	11.5%	296	+0.70	3.37	592	79
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	79
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	78
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	78
Miguelangel Boadas R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP-	3.55	20.6%	11.0%	1.4%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	129	77
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	77
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	77