Jesus Lopez
P
ACL Padres
Age 20
RHP
5'11" / 175 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 103
ERA4.53
FIP4.53
K%22.6%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP12
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | 13 | 9 | 44 | 201 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 69% | 3.4 | 13.2% | 11.8% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 5.98 | 5.34 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | 13 | 9 | 44 | 201 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 69% | 3.4 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 5.98 | 3.81 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 5 | 34 | 162 | 38 | 19 | 3 | 42% | 2.8 | 16.0% | 14.7% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 6.68 | 5.43 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 12 | 5 | 34 | 162 | 38 | 19 | 3 | 42% | 2.8 | 23.5% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.9% | 6.68 | 3.69 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 4 | 16 | 86 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 40% | 1.6 | 14.8% | 22.7% | -7.9% | 7.4% | 13.79 | 8.77 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 4 | 16 | 86 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 40% | 1.6 | 19.8% | 19.8% | 0.0% | 4.7% | 13.79 | 7.50 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | SD | 11 | 0 | 12 | 50 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SD | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.00 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 35 | 18 | 93 | 449 | 65 | 67 | 18 | 51% | 2.7 | 14.5% | 14.9% | -0.4% | 4.1% | 7.55 | 6.03 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 39 | 200 | 966 | 140 | 144 | 40 | 51% | 2.7 | 14.5% | 14.9% | -0.4% | 4.1% | 7.55 | 6.03 | -1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.39 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 20 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2028 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 84 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 80 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 80 |
| Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 80 |
| Deretd Parra R 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .295 | 3.80 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 83 | -1.49 | 2.79 | 161 | 79 |
| Fraynel Nova R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .296 | 4.17 | 14.9% | 4.9% | 110 | +0.17 | 3.49 | 129 | 79 |
| Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.42 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 2.7% | .275 | 4.69 | 16.3% | 6.9% | 299 | +0.27 | 4.13 | 397 | 78 |
| Connor Cooke R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 78 |
| Simon Mathews R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 78 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 77 |
| Juan Mendez R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 77 |
| Lisandro Almonte R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.83 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .310 | 5.17 | 20.5% | 3.3% | 50 | +0.34 | 3.92 | 128 | 77 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2029 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 77 |
| Cole Stapler R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 77 |
| Grant Holman R 2027 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | .308 | 3.75 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 133 | -1.43 | 3.08 | 184 | 77 |
| Adrián Martinez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.30 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 4.09 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 92 | -0.21 | 2.02 | 526 | 77 |
| Rodolfo Sanchez R 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.72 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .264 | 5.07 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 104 | +0.35 | 3.59 | 255 | 76 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 75 |
| Colin Fields R 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 75 |
| Miguel Alfonseca R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.24 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .400 | 5.54 | 14.9% | -0.9% | 92 | +1.30 | 4.24 | 123 | 75 |