Jesus Lopez — OGILVIE

Jesus Lopez P ACL Padres

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 9 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%22.0%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	9	44	201	39	19	4	69%	3.4	13.2%	11.8%	1.4%	3.1%	5.98	5.16	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	13	9	44	201	39	19	4	69%	3.4	19.4%	9.5%	10.0%	2.0%	5.98	3.81	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	5	34	162	38	19	3	42%	2.8	16.0%	14.7%	1.3%	2.9%	6.68	5.21	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	12	5	34	162	38	19	3	42%	2.8	16.0%	14.7%	1.3%	2.9%	6.68	5.21	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	12	5	34	162	38	19	3	42%	2.8	23.5%	11.7%	11.7%	1.9%	6.68	3.69	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	16	86	17	17	4	40%	1.6	14.8%	22.7%	-7.9%	7.5%	13.79	8.84	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	4	16	86	17	17	4	40%	1.6	14.8%	22.7%	-7.9%	7.5%	13.79	8.84	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	4	16	86	17	17	4	40%	1.6	19.8%	19.8%	0.0%	4.7%	13.79	7.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	2	2	9	38	8	5	1	100%	4.5	22.0%	14.3%	7.7%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	4	4	20	84	19	10	3	100%	5.0	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.74	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	5.0	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.74	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	5	1	100%	4.9	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.36	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	203	102	20	100%	5.2	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		35	18	93	449	65	67	17	51%	2.7	14.5%	14.9%	-0.4%	3.9%	7.55	5.88	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	39	200	966	140	144	37	51%	2.7	14.5%	14.9%	-0.4%	3.9%	7.55	5.88	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	22.0%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.74	23.0%	10.6%	20	-0.36	—	—	—
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	90
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	86
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	81
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	80
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	79
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Joseph Hernandez R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	21	SW	4.39	24.7%	16.7%	2.3%	.348	4.92	18.1%	4.0%	190	+0.53	4.39	260	78
Rodolfo Sanchez R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	23.0%	13.6%	3.3%	.264	4.83	19.9%	6.3%	104	+0.12	3.59	255	78
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	78
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	77
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	77
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	77
Luis Rosario R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP-	4.68	17.5%	11.8%	2.8%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	2.46	206	77
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	77
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	77
Jonawel Valdez R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	20	SP-	4.13	17.5%	13.8%	1.4%	.309	5.20	12.5%	0.2%	81	+1.07	4.04	141	77
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	76
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	76
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	76
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	76