Grant Kipp

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #487Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP40ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	13	10	41	6.15	3.22	26.0%	11.0%	—	K 18.9% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.75
2025	25	AACHC	26	23	109	4.22	3.85	23.5%	12.2%	—	K 19.0% · BB 13.4% · FIP 4.73
2026	26	MIX2 levels	25	17	92	4.50	3.73	27.7%	10.2%	—	K 23.1% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	22	22	129	4.86	4.86	21.8%	11.7%	0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBCHC	8	8	47	4.78	4.81	21.7%	11.4%	0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBCHC	11	11	66	4.83	4.89	21.5%	11.4%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$5M2032Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Yariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Daniel Ponce de Leon (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.8%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP129

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 129 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	21	96	19	7	3	100%	3.6	14.3%	9.4%	4.9%	4.7%	5.48	5.66	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	21	96	19	7	3	100%	3.6	19.8%	7.3%	12.5%	3.1%	5.48	4.13	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	99	424	105	35	10	96%	4.3	18.5%	9.7%	8.8%	2.8%	4.29	4.32	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	99	424	105	35	10	96%	4.3	24.8%	8.3%	16.5%	2.4%	4.29	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	41	181	47	20	3	77%	3.2	18.9%	14.1%	4.8%	2.7%	6.15	4.75	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	10	41	181	47	20	3	77%	3.2	18.9%	14.1%	4.8%	2.7%	6.15	4.75	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	10	41	181	47	20	3	77%	3.2	26.0%	11.0%	14.9%	1.7%	6.15	3.22	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	26	23	109	469	110	57	10	88%	4.2	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.73	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	26	23	109	469	110	57	10	88%	4.2	19.0%	13.4%	5.6%	2.8%	4.22	4.73	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	26	23	109	469	110	57	10	88%	4.2	23.5%	12.2%	11.3%	2.1%	4.22	3.85	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	92	393	109	40	12	68%	3.7	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.50	4.33	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	92	393	109	40	12	68%	3.7	23.1%	10.0%	13.1%	3.5%	4.50	4.33	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	92	393	109	40	12	68%	3.7	27.7%	10.2%	17.6%	3.1%	4.50	3.73	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	22	22	129	545	119	63	17	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.86	4.86	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	125	527	114	60	17	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.3%	4.85	4.88	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	119	503	108	57	17	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.4%	4.90	4.96	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	112	473	100	54	17	100%	5.9	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.6%	5.01	5.11	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	47	198	43	23	6	100%	5.9	21.7%	11.4%	10.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.81	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	66	279	60	32	9	100%	6.0	21.5%	11.4%	10.1%	3.3%	4.83	4.89	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	76	321	68	37	11	100%	5.8	21.2%	11.5%	9.7%	3.4%	4.94	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	32	189	800	171	91	26	100%	5.9	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.86	4.55	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	181	96	27	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.86	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		93	78	362	1563	306	177	48	84%	3.9	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.58	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	43	200	864	169	98	27	84%	3.9	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.58	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Kipp (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.8%	11.7%	3.2%	—	4.98	21.5%	10.1%	356	+0.12	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	78
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	22.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.246	5.09	22.7%	10.1%	182	+1.00	3.35	768	78
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	77
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	77
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	77
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	76
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	76
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	75
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	74
Dylan Cumming R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	25	SP-	3.75	21.6%	9.8%	2.2%	.337	4.63	16.6%	8.0%	198	+0.88	3.75	406	74
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	73
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	73
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	72
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	714	71
Bradin Hagens R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	14.6%	9.8%	1.2%	.277	4.92	14.9%	5.0%	55	+1.13	3.79	254	71
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	70
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	70
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	121	21.6%	11.5%	1.29	4.90
Rip Hagerman ('09-'16, 0 WAR*)	2.2	144	21.2%*	11.8%*	1.44*	4.55*
Jack Bentley ('13-'27, 5 WAR*)	3.6	143	21.1%*	9.8%*	1.35*	4.67*
Mysterious Walker ('10-'15, -1 WAR*)	1.5	99	20.6%*	11.4%*	1.25*	5.38*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61