Austin Ehrlicher

Austin Ehrlicher P Greenville Drive

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2029

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 57 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%21.1%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3030

CMD4545

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	2	0	6	25	10	1	0	0%	3.0	40.0%	4.0%	36.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.23	—
2024	21	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	2	0	6	25	10	1	0	0%	3.0	40.0%	4.0%	36.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.23	—
2024	21	A RAW	Salem Red Sox	2	0	6	25	10	1	0	0%	3.0	40.0%	4.0%	36.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.27	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	63	261	73	39	0	57%	3.0	20.9%	17.5%	3.5%	0.0%	2.56	3.55	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	63	261	73	39	0	57%	3.0	20.9%	17.5%	3.5%	0.0%	2.56	3.55	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	63	261	73	39	0	57%	3.0	28.0%	14.9%	13.0%	0.0%	2.56	2.64	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	6	3	12	58	15	9	1	50%	1.9	19.9%	17.8%	2.1%	2.2%	6.94	4.86	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	6	3	12	58	15	9	1	50%	1.9	19.9%	17.8%	2.1%	2.2%	6.94	4.86	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Greenville Drive	6	3	12	58	15	9	1	50%	1.9	25.9%	15.5%	10.3%	1.7%	6.94	3.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BOS	10	10	57	241	51	42	7	100%	5.7	21.1%	17.6%	3.5%	2.7%	5.43	5.43	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	58	244	53	37	7	100%	5.8	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.7%	5.18	5.09	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	58	244	54	36	7	100%	5.8	22.0%	14.8%	7.2%	2.8%	5.06	5.01	-0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	57	240	53	35	7	100%	6.3	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	2.8%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	25	106	23	16	3	100%	6.2	21.7%	15.3%	6.4%	2.7%	5.18	5.09	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	35	24	4	100%	6.3	22.0%	14.8%	7.2%	2.8%	5.06	5.01	-0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	44	186	41	27	5	100%	6.3	22.1%	14.6%	7.5%	2.8%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	18	107	453	99	67	13	100%	6.0	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.07	4.65	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	185	125	24	100%	6.0	21.9%	14.8%	7.1%	2.8%	5.07	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		29	15	81	344	76	57	1	52%	2.8	22.1%	16.6%	5.6%	0.4%	3.00	3.53	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	37	200	849	188	141	3	52%	2.8	22.1%	16.6%	5.6%	0.4%	3.00	3.53	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Ehrlicher (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	21.1%	17.6%	2.7%	—	5.04	21.9%	7.0%	172	-0.39	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	86
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	79
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	77
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	77
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.33	21.4%	7.0%	173	-0.73	4.21	254	77
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	76
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	75
Andrew Lee R 2018 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	21.4%	22.6%	1.6%	.232	4.44	19.1%	7.3%	169	-0.58	2.43	364	75
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	75
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	75
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	74
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	74
Richard Guasch R 2022 · 4.41 FIP	24	SW	4.41	22.3%	16.2%	2.1%	.287	3.24	23.8%	11.8%	72	-1.17	2.94	316	74
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	74
Engert Garcia R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	24	SW	4.25	15.9%	16.8%	0.7%	.311	5.94	12.9%	-14.3%	26	+1.69	3.13	125	74
Will Bednar R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	24	SW	6.40	23.8%	23.1%	4.3%	.240	3.83	25.5%	9.4%	115	-2.57	3.38	202	73
Adrian Chaidez R 2023 · 4.96 FIP	24	SW	4.96	19.4%	16.3%	2.6%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	144	73
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	73
Austin Vernon R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	24	SW	5.75	22.1%	16.8%	4.3%	.325	3.68	23.3%	10.0%	100	-2.07	3.37	261	73
Matt Merrill R 2022 · 6.06 FIP	24	SW	6.06	20.4%	22.4%	3.4%	.314	3.92	25.4%	7.0%	108	-2.14	3.14	205	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	21.7%	15.5%	1.07	5.17
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82