Austin Ehrlicher
P
Greenville Drive
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'5" / 185 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%11.8%
K-BB%10.8%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 12 | 63 | 261 | 73 | 39 | 0 | 20.9% | 17.5% | 0.0% | 2.56 | 3.55 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 61 | 32 | 7 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 67 | 283 | 65 | 32 | 7 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.20 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 64 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 66 | 28 | 7 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.26 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 66 | 28 | 7 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 65 | 275 | 66 | 28 | 7 | 23.9% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 65 | 27 | 7 | 23.8% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.21 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 63 | 27 | 7 | 23.7% | 10.2% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 60 | 26 | 7 | 23.5% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 58 | 26 | 7 | 23.2% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 55 | 25 | 7 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 52 | 24 | 7 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 48 | 24 | 7 | 22.3% | 10.9% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 21.9% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 41 | 22 | 6 | 21.5% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 12 | 73 | 302 | 69 | 47 | 0 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 2.33 | 3.14 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 33 | 200 | 824 | 188 | 128 | 0 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 2.33 | 3.14 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Ehrlicher (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.22 | 23.6% | 13.3% | 196 | -0.25 | — | — | — |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.51 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.8% | .289 | 4.17 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.34 | 3.86 | 242 | 96 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.90 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.80 | 4.10 | 168 | 95 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.50 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.1% | .275 | 4.24 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.26 | 3.32 | 181 | 94 |
| William Kempner R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .277 | 3.24 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 68 | -0.80 | 3.24 | 129 | 93 |
| Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 92 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 92 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 92 |
| Bailey Dees R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.27 | 21.3% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .248 | 4.37 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 278 | +0.10 | 3.41 | 330 | 91 |
| Shane Broyles R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.95 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.3% | .338 | 3.75 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.20 | 3.30 | 218 | 91 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 91 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 94 | +0.26 | 3.60 | 154 | 90 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.91 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 4.68 | 22.3% | 12.1% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.38 | 188 | 90 |
| Abel De Los Santos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.68 | 21.6% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .273 | 3.82 | 22.0% | 13.3% | 37 | +0.14 | 3.68 | 152 | 90 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 2.7% | .298 | 4.70 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | +0.09 | 4.23 | 222 | 90 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .274 | 4.36 | 23.4% | 13.0% | 144 | +0.75 | 3.37 | 292 | 90 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 90 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.69 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .278 | 3.73 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -0.96 | 3.73 | 104 | 89 |
| Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.11 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .322 | 4.48 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.37 | 4.11 | 128 | 89 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.5% | .277 | 4.39 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.41 | 3.98 | 109 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $6M | $13M | +$8M | ||