Austin Ehrlicher P Greenville Drive
Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 118
ERA5.20
FIP5.20
K%21.2%
BB%16.6%
K-BB%4.6%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
K: -0.3 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -6.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-7BBCONTACT: -0.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +5.2 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+5STAMTotal WAR: -0.28 (73 IP)-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.20.20.1+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF5050
CTRL3030
CMD4545
K†5055
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.6M+$0.0M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.9M $0.9M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202421ASalem Red Sox2062510100%3.040.0%4.0%36.0%0.0%0.000.23—
202421ASalem Red Sox2062510100%3.040.0%4.0%36.0%0.0%0.000.27—
202522MIX2 levels2112632617339057%3.020.9%17.5%3.5%0.0%2.563.55—
202522MIX2 levels2112632617339057%3.028.0%14.9%13.0%0.0%2.562.64—
▸ 2026 Season
202623A+Greenville Drive631258159150%1.919.9%17.8%2.1%2.2%6.944.86-0.0
ROS23MLBBOS11116226055437100%5.621.2%16.6%4.6%2.6%5.205.20-0.4
ROS23MLBBOS——0——————21.2%16.6%4.6%2.6%5.215.21—
2026 TOT23MLBBOS——7331870528——22.1%16.4%5.6%2.4%5.485.15-0.3
2026 FULL23MLBBOS——01000——21.2%16.6%4.6%2.6%5.214.83-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202724MLBBOS11116326659397100%5.722.0%14.5%7.5%2.6%4.974.87-0.2
202825MLBBOS11116427061357100%5.822.5%13.1%9.4%2.6%4.774.66-0.0
202926MLBBOS11116427061357100%5.822.7%12.8%9.9%2.6%4.674.62+0.0
203027MLBBOS10106326660347100%6.322.7%12.8%9.9%2.7%4.664.65-0.0
203128MLBBOS10106125858337100%6.122.6%13.0%9.6%2.8%4.714.74-0.1
203229MLBBOS10105824655337100%5.822.4%13.2%9.2%2.9%4.804.87-0.2
202724MLBBOS552711425173100%5.422.0%14.5%7.5%2.6%4.984.88-0.1
202825MLBBOS774217740235100%6.022.5%13.1%9.4%2.6%4.784.67-0.1
202926MLBBOS885121549286100%6.422.7%12.8%9.9%2.6%4.684.63-0.0
203027MLBBOS995422852296100%6.022.7%12.8%9.9%2.7%4.674.66-0.1
203128MLBBOS995422852306100%6.022.6%13.0%9.6%2.8%4.724.75-0.1
203229MLBBOS995322450307100%5.922.4%13.2%9.2%2.9%4.814.88-0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—4747281118826815632100%6.022.5%13.1%9.4%2.7%4.754.35+3.4
/ 200 IP—343420084419011123100%5.922.5%13.1%9.4%2.7%4.754.35+2.4
Career—2915813447657152%2.822.1%16.6%5.6%0.4%3.003.53+1.4
/ 200 IP—7237200849188141352%2.822.1%16.6%5.6%0.4%3.003.53+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Austin Ehrlicher (OGILVIE) —— 5.20 21.2%16.6%2.6%— 4.72 22.4%8.9%191 -0.48 ———
Zach Linginfelter R 2027 · 5.72 FIP 24 SP- 5.72 19.1%16.0%4.0%.295 4.94 18.8%-0.6%46 -0.78 3.58 109 84
James McArthur R 2025 · 5.37 FIP 22 SP- 5.37 18.8%15.5%3.5%.304 4.20 20.0%10.7%131 -1.17 3.53 352 82
Ramsey David R 2027 · 5.23 FIP 24 SP- 5.23 18.6%17.4%2.7%.219 7.27 19.1%-0.7%30 +2.04 5.23 107 81
Wills Montgomerie R 2026 · 5.03 FIP 23 SP- 5.03 19.3%19.1%2.1%.275 4.55 20.1%6.0%105 -0.48 4.55 153 81
Cade Winquest R 2026 · 4.36 FIP 23 SP- 4.36 17.9%12.0%2.3%.299 3.91 20.0%9.6%158 -0.45 3.34 236 80
Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP 24 SP- 4.91 21.9%13.2%3.6%.314 4.49 18.6%4.7%123 -0.42 4.16 164 80
Grant Ford R 2026 · 5.34 FIP 23 SW 5.34 20.1%13.2%4.1%.300 4.57 19.0%4.5%112 -0.77 3.96 188 80
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.40 FIP 23 SW 4.40 18.8%11.6%2.6%.330 3.82 25.6%15.0%145 -0.58 2.52 275 79
Dean Deetz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 22.2%13.7%2.5%.298 4.84 29.1%10.7%68 +0.50 2.64 281 79
Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.78 FIP 23 SP- 4.78 22.0%17.9%2.3%.274 4.87 21.0%7.0%73 +0.09 4.09 196 79
Alex Vallecillo R 2024 · 4.68 FIP 21 SP- 4.68 18.6%16.3%2.0%.277 — ——— — 4.47 152 78
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 23 SP- 4.34 18.4%11.5%2.4%.306 4.68 16.2%5.7%316 +0.34 3.90 371 78
Adrian Chaidez R 2026 · 5.66 FIP 23 SP- 5.66 20.1%15.0%4.3%.281 4.68 19.4%3.1%45 -0.98 4.68 144 77
Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP 23 SW 4.85 17.1%12.2%3.0%.292 2.69 24.2%15.6%68 -2.16 2.69 145 77
Ike Buxton R 2026 · 4.93 FIP 23 SP- 4.93 16.8%15.2%2.4%.241 4.68 14.8%-0.6%123 -0.25 4.52 196 77
Jackson Finley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP 23 SP- 4.04 18.0%12.8%1.5%.361 3.85 20.7%11.4%49 -0.19 3.85 132 77
Yohan Ramírez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP 23 SW 4.76 18.2%14.6%2.5%.243 4.16 27.6%10.7%172 -0.60 3.19 652 76
Danny Cody R 2027 · 6.00 FIP 24 SW 6.00 20.5%15.0%5.0%.369 6.37 11.4%-6.9%37 +0.37 6.00 106 76
Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP 24 SP- 5.27 16.4%12.9%3.5%.321 4.42 23.3%12.6%51 -0.85 4.42 102 76
Ben Casparius R 2026 · 5.20 FIP 23 SP- 5.20 20.6%13.2%4.0%.306 4.44 21.7%10.6%274 -0.76 3.49 364 76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION76222.3%13.7%1.034.82
Miguel Castro ('23)75920.8%12.0%1.043.99
Greg Holland ('21)64525.4%12.3%0.874.03
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
Amir Garrett ('23)65125.8%13.4%1.505.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)74023.1%14.1%1.255.39
Daniel Bard ('23)45025.1%13.5%0.813.82