Carson Dorsey
P
Frederick Keys
+0.3
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.25
FIP4.25
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%14.0%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 108.00 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 12 | 11 | 44 | 184 | 58 | 20 | 1 | 24.5% | 11.5% | 0.8% | 4.06 | 2.94 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 2 | 2 | 9 | 44 | 8 | 6 | 3 | — | — | — | 8.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 45 | 196 | 44 | 21 | 7 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 3.40 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 24.1% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.07 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 39 | 14 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 38 | 14 | 4 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 37 | 14 | 4 | 24.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.7% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.42 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 15 | 13 | 54 | 233 | 53 | 30 | 6 | 22.8% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 5.37 | 4.12 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 48 | 200 | 868 | 198 | 112 | 22 | 22.8% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 5.37 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Dorsey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.10 | 24.4% | 15.4% | 112 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Brian Marconi L 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.91 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .265 | 5.03 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.12 | 3.91 | 101 | 88 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.70 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.05 | 2.51 | 119 | 87 |
| Robert Garcia L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.38 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 106 | -0.01 | 2.09 | 452 | 86 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.92 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .333 | 4.21 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.29 | 2.24 | 237 | 85 |
| Easton Lucas L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.09 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.17 | 3.48 | 311 | 84 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2028 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.62 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.99 | 3.63 | 206 | 84 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2028 · 3.29 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.29 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .379 | 4.39 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.10 | 3.29 | 142 | 84 |
| Austin Warner L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 18.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 284 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 491 | 83 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 83 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.56 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .294 | 2.75 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.81 | 2.15 | 310 | 83 |
| Hogan Harris L 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 82 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.29 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .368 | 4.12 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.17 | 3.52 | 175 | 82 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.55 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.34 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.21 | 3.13 | 220 | 82 |
| Darien Núñez L 2028 · 3.22 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.22 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.63 | 2.48 | 122 | 81 |
| Wyatt Short L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.83 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .262 | 3.96 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 91 | +0.13 | 2.73 | 288 | 81 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.43 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .283 | 4.34 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.09 | 4.34 | 110 | 81 |
| Jake Rice L 2027 · 3.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 2.4% | .294 | 4.77 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 130 | +1.63 | 3.14 | 199 | 81 |
| Garvin Alston L 2025 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.43 | 4.08 | 232 | 81 |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.9% | .298 | 4.50 | 16.9% | 7.4% | 231 | -0.05 | 3.50 | 300 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.0% | .320 | 5.44 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.47 | 3.97 | 158 | 81 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||