Carson Dorsey
P
Frederick Keys
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97106vR 115
ERA4.23
FIP4.23
K%25.0%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%14.6%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 155 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 60.0% | -60.0% | 20.0% | 108.00 | 21.68 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 60.0% | -60.0% | 20.0% | 108.00 | 69.10 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 44 | 184 | 58 | 20 | 1 | 92% | 3.7 | 24.5% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 0.9% | 4.06 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 11 | 44 | 184 | 58 | 20 | 1 | 92% | 3.7 | 31.5% | 10.9% | 20.7% | 0.5% | 4.06 | 2.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | 16 | 7 | 65 | 294 | 70 | 32 | 10 | 44% | 4.0 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 95 | 39 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.23 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.29 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 155 | 674 | 165 | 71 | 21 | — | — | 24.5% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.75 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 118 | 499 | 126 | 47 | 14 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 2.8% | 4.14 | 4.08 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 138 | 581 | 148 | 52 | 16 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.00 | +2.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 150 | 632 | 161 | 56 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.4% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.99 | +2.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 23 | 23 | 148 | 623 | 158 | 55 | 18 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.3% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.03 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 143 | 604 | 152 | 54 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.12 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 137 | 577 | 144 | 53 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.25 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 128 | 543 | 134 | 52 | 18 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 4.33 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 120 | 506 | 123 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.7 | 24.2% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.63 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 111 | 468 | 111 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.8% | 4.72 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | BAL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 54 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 91 | 384 | 98 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.4% | 8.9% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 119 | 502 | 128 | 44 | 15 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.4% | 8.8% | 16.6% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 126 | 532 | 135 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.6 | 25.3% | 8.8% | 16.5% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.09 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 127 | 536 | 135 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.7 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 16.2% | 3.1% | 4.14 | 4.18 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 124 | 524 | 131 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.24 | 4.31 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 118 | 498 | 123 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.6 | 24.6% | 9.5% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 112 | 473 | 115 | 47 | 17 | 100% | 6.6 | 24.2% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.58 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 104 | 439 | 104 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.80 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 150 | 149 | 973 | 4107 | 1023 | 381 | 133 | 99% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 3.95 | +16.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 210 | 78 | 27 | 100% | 6.5 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 18 | 109 | 483 | 99 | 61 | 15 | 62% | 3.8 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 4.69 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 53 | 33 | 200 | 884 | 181 | 111 | 28 | 62% | 3.8 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 5.19 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Dorsey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.23 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.02 | 25.4% | 16.4% | 406 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 91 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 87 |
| Ben Shields L 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.20 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 2.91 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.29 | 2.91 | 147 | 85 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.33 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 3.0% | .288 | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.7% | 150 | -0.32 | 3.72 | 239 | 84 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 83 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 81 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 81 |
| Josh Trentadue L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.63 | 23.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .249 | 4.99 | 21.5% | 9.2% | 48 | +1.36 | 3.10 | 196 | 81 |
| Brian Holmes L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 80 |
| Drew Parrish L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.53 | 24.1% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .261 | 6.22 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 354 | +2.69 | 3.53 | 522 | 80 |
| Will Dion L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.47 | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.03 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 264 | +0.56 | 2.44 | 496 | 80 |
| Robby Ahlstrom L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .349 | 4.18 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.31 | 3.65 | 308 | 79 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .284 | 4.47 | 17.1% | 5.8% | 213 | +0.07 | 3.67 | 288 | 78 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 77 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.35 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 119 | -0.28 | 3.54 | 186 | 76 |
| Nick Zwack L 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.10 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.5% | .299 | 5.99 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 143 | +2.89 | 3.10 | 271 | 76 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.83 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 160 | 76 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.74 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.62 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 24 | -1.12 | 3.62 | 125 | 76 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.06 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 6.60 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 51 | +2.54 | 4.06 | 248 | 76 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2028 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 128 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 1.19 | 4.21 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |