Carson Dorsey

P Frederick Keys

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#862ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	A+Aberdeen Iron…	1	0	0	108.00	69.10	0.0%	60.0%	—	K 0.0% · BB 60.0% · FIP 21.68
2025	22	MIX2 levels	12	11	44	4.06	2.13	31.5%	10.9%	—	K 24.5% · BB 11.5% · FIP 2.93
2026	23	A+BAL	24	11	96	4.80	4.24	22.8%	12.6%	—	K 17.6% · BB 14.5% · FIP 5.21
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	—	—	0	5.21	5.21	19.4%	13.7%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	6	6	39	5.04	4.94	20.7%	12.0%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBAL	9	9	60	4.90	4.84	21.5%	11.6%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control40Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDante Biasi (age 24) · Hayden Wynja (age 24) · Doug Davis (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116124vR 132

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%19.4%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	0	5	0	3	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	20.0%	108.00	21.68	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	0	5	0	3	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	20.0%	108.00	21.68	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	0	5	0	3	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	20.0%	108.00	69.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	44	184	58	20	1	92%	3.7	24.5%	11.5%	13.1%	0.8%	4.06	2.93	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	44	184	58	20	1	92%	3.7	24.5%	11.5%	13.1%	0.8%	4.06	2.93	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	44	184	58	20	1	92%	3.7	31.5%	10.9%	20.7%	0.5%	4.06	2.13	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	11	96	429	98	54	11	46%	4.0	17.6%	14.5%	3.1%	3.2%	4.80	5.21	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	11	96	429	98	54	11	46%	4.0	17.6%	14.5%	3.1%	3.2%	4.80	5.21	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	24	11	96	429	98	54	11	46%	4.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.3%	2.6%	4.80	4.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.4%	13.7%	5.7%	3.0%	5.21	5.21	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	90	380	79	46	11	100%	6.9	20.7%	12.0%	8.8%	3.0%	4.97	4.87	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	90	380	82	44	11	100%	6.9	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.83	4.77	+0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	83	350	75	40	11	100%	6.9	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.0%	4.79	4.78	+0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	78	331	71	38	10	100%	7.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	73	307	65	36	10	100%	7.3	21.1%	11.8%	9.4%	3.3%	4.92	4.98	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	66	277	58	34	10	100%	7.3	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.5%	5.06	5.16	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	6	6	39	165	34	20	5	100%	6.5	20.7%	12.0%	8.8%	3.1%	5.04	4.94	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	60	253	54	29	8	100%	6.7	21.5%	11.6%	9.9%	3.1%	4.90	4.84	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	64	270	58	31	9	100%	7.1	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.2%	4.86	4.85	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	66	279	60	32	9	100%	7.3	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.90	4.93	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	9	9	64	270	57	32	9	100%	7.1	21.1%	11.8%	9.4%	3.4%	5.00	5.06	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	59	249	52	30	9	100%	7.4	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	3.6%	5.15	5.25	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	351	1483	315	174	49	100%	7.0	21.2%	11.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.97	4.60	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	179	99	28	100%	7.0	21.2%	11.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.97	4.60	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		37	22	140	618	121	86	16	59%	3.8	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.66	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	881	172	123	23	59%	3.8	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.66	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Frederick Keys · 96 IPFIP 4.17 → 5.21 (+1.03)K% 22.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.84%	—	×0.770	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.59%	—	×1.150	14.48%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷1.000	×1.250	3.21%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.17 → 5.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 42 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.93 (+1.09)K% 33.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.14%	—	×0.740	24.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.71%	—	×1.180	11.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷0.899	×1.300	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Dorsey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	19.4%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.81	21.2%	9.5%	263	-0.40	—	—	—
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	84
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	83
Doug Davis L 2000 · 5.12 FIP	24	SW	5.12	14.7%	12.2%	3.1%	.302	4.41	13.0%	4.1%	355	-0.71	3.47	1,713	82
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	82
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	82
Brian Burres L 2007 · 4.50 FIP	26	SW	4.50	17.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.328	4.71	11.3%	3.1%	209	+0.21	4.50	344	81
Riley Cooper L 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SW	4.22	16.6%	12.0%	1.8%	.287	4.46	18.9%	7.7%	51	+0.24	4.14	139	81
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	80
Cody Reed L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	19.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.301	3.86	22.0%	13.8%	181	-0.44	2.90	572	80
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	79
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	79
Jaylen Nowlin L 2024 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP-	5.15	18.7%	12.6%	3.7%	.299	4.77	21.7%	3.2%	100	-0.38	3.45	372	78
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	78
Nate Peterson L 2024 · 5.51 FIP	24	SP-	5.51	19.2%	11.4%	4.7%	.296	4.75	16.0%	3.7%	148	-0.76	4.27	315	78
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.5%	4.7%	321	-1.03	3.35	506	78
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	77
Bryce Hubbart L 2024 · 5.45 FIP	23	SP-	5.45	15.5%	13.8%	3.5%	.313	5.14	19.9%	6.3%	82	-0.31	4.79	194	76
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	20.9%	12.1%	1.20	4.94
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64