Carson Dorsey — OGILVIE

Carson Dorsey P Frederick Keys

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%25.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$43M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$18M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	0	5	0	3	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	20.0%	108.00	21.68	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	0	5	0	3	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	20.0%	108.00	21.68	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	1	0	0	5	0	3	1	0%	0.3	0.0%	60.0%	-60.0%	20.0%	108.00	69.10	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	44	184	58	20	1	92%	3.7	24.5%	11.5%	13.1%	0.8%	4.06	2.93	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	11	44	184	58	20	1	92%	3.7	24.5%	11.5%	13.1%	0.8%	4.06	2.93	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	11	44	184	58	20	1	92%	3.7	31.5%	10.9%	20.7%	0.5%	4.06	2.13	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	11	96	429	98	54	11	46%	4.0	17.6%	14.5%	3.1%	3.2%	4.80	5.21	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	24	11	96	429	98	54	11	46%	4.0	17.6%	14.5%	3.1%	3.2%	4.80	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	BAL	24	11	96	429	98	54	11	46%	4.0	22.8%	12.6%	10.3%	2.6%	4.80	4.17	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	BAL	7	0	8	32	8	4	1	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.1%	13.9%	2.8%	4.31	4.31	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	103	461	106	58	12	—	—	23.0%	12.5%	10.5%	2.6%	4.76	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	122	515	130	51	14	100%	6.8	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	2.8%	4.20	4.14	+1.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	142	597	152	55	17	100%	6.7	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	2.8%	4.11	4.04	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	154	648	165	59	18	100%	6.7	25.4%	9.2%	16.3%	2.8%	4.07	4.03	+1.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	151	638	162	59	18	100%	6.9	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	2.9%	4.08	4.07	+1.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	22	22	147	619	156	58	18	100%	6.7	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.0%	4.13	4.16	+1.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	140	592	148	57	18	100%	6.7	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	3.1%	4.23	4.29	+1.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	132	556	137	55	18	100%	6.9	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.3%	4.37	4.47	+0.7
2034	31	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	123	518	126	53	18	100%	6.8	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	114	480	114	51	18	100%	6.7	23.8%	10.6%	13.1%	3.8%	4.76	4.90	0.0
2036	33	MLB MLE	BAL	15	15	104	440	102	49	18	100%	6.9	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	4.1%	4.99	5.15	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	52	220	55	22	6	100%	6.5	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.27	4.21	+0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	94	397	101	37	12	100%	6.7	25.4%	9.3%	16.1%	2.9%	4.18	4.11	+1.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	122	515	131	47	15	100%	6.8	25.4%	9.2%	16.3%	2.9%	4.14	4.10	+1.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	129	545	138	50	16	100%	6.8	25.3%	9.2%	16.1%	3.0%	4.15	4.14	+1.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	131	553	139	52	17	100%	6.9	25.2%	9.3%	15.9%	3.1%	4.20	4.23	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	127	536	134	51	17	100%	6.7	25.0%	9.6%	15.4%	3.2%	4.31	4.37	+0.9
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	121	511	126	50	18	100%	6.7	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.5%	4.45	4.55	+0.6
2034	31	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	114	481	117	49	18	100%	6.7	24.2%	10.2%	14.0%	3.7%	4.64	4.76	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	106	448	106	48	18	100%	6.6	23.8%	10.6%	13.1%	4.0%	4.85	4.99	0.0
2036	33	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	99	418	97	46	18	100%	6.6	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	4.2%	5.09	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	162	1096	4628	1146	453	155	100%	6.8	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.09	+10.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		29	29	200	844	209	83	28	100%	6.8	24.8%	9.8%	15.0%	3.3%	4.42	4.09	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		37	22	140	618	121	86	16	59%	3.8	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.66	+8.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	31	200	881	172	123	23	59%	3.8	19.5%	13.9%	5.6%	2.6%	4.81	4.66	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Dorsey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	25.0%	11.1%	2.8%	—	4.07	25.4%	15.9%	417	-0.24	—	—	—
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	87
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	83
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Trey Dombroski L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	22.3%	8.4%	4.0%	.280	4.93	19.0%	8.3%	302	+0.45	3.80	421	81
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	79
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	79
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	78
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	77
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	77
Will Dion L 2023 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP-	3.37	22.3%	8.4%	2.0%	.289	4.06	21.2%	13.2%	294	+0.69	3.09	526	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76
Seth Lonsway L 2022 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	21.2%	14.4%	2.3%	.304	4.16	15.9%	4.3%	319	-0.25	3.35	498	75
Joe Kemlage L 2022 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	19.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.278	5.35	17.6%	5.9%	65	+0.93	4.42	128	75
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	75
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	75
Trenton Wallace L 2022 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	25.8%	15.8%	1.3%	.224	4.62	22.4%	10.7%	206	+1.00	2.87	286	75
Ismael Guillón L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	24.9%	12.5%	3.3%	.206	4.43	20.1%	6.0%	100	+0.05	4.35	193	75
Nick Zwack L 2022 · 3.16 FIP	23	SP	3.16	23.9%	9.3%	1.6%	.299	5.73	18.2%	8.6%	143	+2.57	3.16	289	75
Carson Teel L 2019 · 3.43 FIP	23	SP-	3.43	17.2%	8.8%	1.2%	.292	4.86	16.9%	10.0%	144	+1.43	3.43	248	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	129	24.8%	9.8%	1.21	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68