Zach Royse — OGILVIE

Zach Royse P Rome Emperors

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%20.4%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	23	21	121	507	116	43	12	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	23	21	121	507	116	43	12	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	ATL	11	10	59	241	62	21	3	91%	5.4	25.7%	8.7%	17.0%	1.2%	4.42	2.71	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	ATL	12	11	62	266	54	22	9	92%	5.2	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.4%	3.77	4.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	123	519	111	46	15	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.50	4.44	+0.7
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	126	532	117	46	16	100%	5.7	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	22	22	128	539	120	45	16	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.26	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	128	539	121	45	16	100%	6.1	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	2.9%	4.27	4.24	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	21	21	126	531	120	45	16	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	20	20	122	515	115	44	16	100%	6.1	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	116	491	109	43	16	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.50	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	109	462	101	42	16	100%	6.1	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.67	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	102	431	92	41	16	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.7%	4.76	4.88	+0.0
2036	32	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	94	399	84	39	16	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.8%	11.1%	3.9%	4.96	5.10	-0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	61	258	55	23	8	100%	5.5	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.50	4.44	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	88	372	82	32	11	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+0.6
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	104	439	98	37	13	100%	5.8	22.4%	8.4%	14.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.26	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	112	473	107	39	14	100%	5.9	22.5%	8.3%	14.2%	2.9%	4.27	4.24	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	114	481	108	41	14	100%	6.0	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.0%	4.28	4.28	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	19	19	112	473	106	41	15	100%	5.9	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.33	4.36	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	18	18	108	456	101	40	15	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.50	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	17	17	102	431	94	39	15	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	3.4%	4.58	4.67	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	16	16	97	410	88	39	15	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.7%	4.76	4.88	+0.0
2036	32	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	90	380	80	37	15	100%	6.0	21.0%	9.8%	11.1%	3.9%	4.96	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		166	166	987	4168	917	367	133	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.11	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	186	74	27	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	21	121	507	87	50	15	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	838	145	83	25	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Royse (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.4%	9.6%	3.0%	—	4.34	21.9%	13.3%	376	-0.29	—	—	—
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	87
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	83
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	82
Kade McClure R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP	3.57	17.3%	9.2%	1.4%	.336	4.29	17.6%	10.2%	227	+0.72	3.57	388	82
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	80
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	80
Slade Cecconi R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	19.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.300	4.66	19.4%	13.6%	397	+0.61	4.05	717	80
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	79
Jimmy Joyce R 2021 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP	3.78	25.0%	9.0%	3.0%	.341	4.03	20.4%	9.7%	242	+0.25	3.39	259	79
Ricky DeVito R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	22	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.8%	3.2%	.309	4.65	21.5%	2.4%	151	+0.61	4.04	215	79
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	79
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	79
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	78
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	78
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	77
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	77
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	77
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.0	109	22.0%	8.8%	1.23	4.46
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73