Zach Royse

P Rome Emperors

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 208 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#478ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	21	121	4.09	3.54	22.9%	8.5%	—	K 17.3% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.53
2027PROJ	23	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.89	4.89	18.0%	9.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBATL	7	7	39	4.73	4.67	19.4%	9.2%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBATL	9	9	55	4.61	4.55	20.2%	8.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.6M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 3.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsBlake Beers (age 24) · Marcel Rentería (age 23) · Shelby Lackey (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP85

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$26M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	121	507	116	43	12	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	121	507	116	43	12	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	121	507	116	43	12	91%	5.3	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	2.4%	4.09	3.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.0%	9.8%	8.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.89	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	90	379	73	35	11	100%	5.6	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.67	+0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	82	347	70	31	10	100%	5.9	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.55	+0.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	81	341	70	30	10	100%	6.2	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	78	330	68	29	10	100%	6.0	20.6%	8.8%	11.9%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	74	314	64	28	10	100%	6.2	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	3.2%	4.58	4.61	+0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	69	291	59	27	10	100%	5.8	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.75	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	62	263	53	25	9	100%	6.2	19.9%	9.5%	10.5%	3.5%	4.83	4.92	+0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	56	236	46	23	9	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.7%	5.01	5.12	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	39	165	32	15	5	100%	5.6	19.4%	9.2%	10.2%	3.0%	4.73	4.67	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	55	232	47	21	7	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.55	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	64	270	56	24	8	100%	5.8	20.6%	8.7%	11.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.50	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	67	283	58	25	9	100%	6.1	20.6%	8.8%	11.9%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.7
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	66	279	57	25	9	100%	6.0	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	3.2%	4.58	4.61	+0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	63	266	54	24	9	100%	6.3	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.3%	4.68	4.75	+0.5
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	10	10	58	245	49	23	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.5%	10.5%	3.5%	4.83	4.92	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	52	220	43	22	8	100%	5.8	19.5%	9.8%	9.7%	3.7%	5.01	5.12	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	462	1952	394	177	63	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	3.2%	4.67	4.32	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	170	77	27	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	3.2%	4.67	4.32	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		23	21	121	507	87	50	15	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	35	200	838	145	83	25	91%	5.3	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.53	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 62 IPFIP 4.29 → 5.31 (+1.02)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.30%	—	×0.770	15.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.150	9.51%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 59 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.68 (+0.97)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.73%	—	×0.740	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.71%	—	×1.180	10.28%
HR / BF /BF	1.24%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.62%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Royse (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.0%	9.8%	3.1%	—	4.58	20.1%	11.1%	253	-0.31	—	—	—
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	91
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	90
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	89
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	89
Juan Grijalva R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP	4.45	14.2%	8.6%	2.7%	.271	5.91	11.9%	2.7%	24	+1.46	4.45	110	87
Erich Uelmen R 2019 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.3%	10.7%	2.7%	.299	4.57	19.8%	8.8%	159	-0.07	3.48	383	87
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	87
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	87
Jose Acevedo R 2001 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.3%	7.7%	4.1%	.280	4.83	16.9%	11.0%	208	-0.10	3.43	368	87
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	87
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	86
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	86
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.25	15.4%	5.9%	168	+0.82	4.43	239	86
Parker Bridwell R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP	3.77	18.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.318	4.84	14.5%	6.8%	236	+1.07	3.77	422	86
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	85
Wil Crowe R 2018 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.72	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.08	3.86	518	85
Levi Stoudt R 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP	4.58	19.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.257	5.56	15.9%	6.0%	289	+0.98	4.35	395	85
Micah Ottenbreit R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	21	SP	4.33	17.9%	11.8%	2.3%	.305	3.42	17.7%	8.4%	47	-0.91	3.04	141	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	75	19.9%	9.2%	1.23	4.70
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*
Pete Mikkelsen ('64-'72, 1 WAR*)	3.3	73	20.1%*	9.3%*	1.12*	4.15*
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92