Logan Tabeling — OGILVIE

Logan Tabeling P Great Lakes Loons

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 197 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%22.5%

BB%17.1%

K-BB%5.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	89	400	113	58	1	56%	3.3	21.1%	17.0%	4.1%	0.3%	4.06	3.64	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	89	400	113	58	1	56%	3.3	21.1%	17.0%	4.1%	0.3%	4.06	3.64	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	89	400	113	58	1	56%	3.3	28.2%	14.5%	13.7%	0.2%	4.06	2.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	6	5	24	100	32	10	1	83%	4.1	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	1.2%	2.22	3.16	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	6	5	24	100	32	10	1	83%	4.1	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	1.2%	2.22	3.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAD	6	5	24	100	32	10	1	83%	4.0	32.0%	10.0%	22.0%	1.0%	2.22	2.21	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAD	1	1	8	34	8	6	1	100%	8.2	22.5%	17.1%	5.3%	2.4%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	32	134	40	16	2	—	—	29.6%	11.8%	17.7%	1.4%	2.94	3.65	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	109	461	108	69	11	100%	5.7	23.4%	14.9%	8.5%	2.5%	4.86	4.76	+0.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	121	511	122	73	13	100%	6.1	23.9%	14.4%	9.6%	2.5%	4.72	4.66	+0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	119	504	120	71	13	100%	6.0	23.8%	14.1%	9.7%	2.6%	4.69	4.68	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	116	489	116	69	13	100%	6.1	23.7%	14.1%	9.6%	2.7%	4.72	4.75	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	110	467	109	67	13	100%	6.1	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.82	4.88	+0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	104	439	101	64	13	100%	6.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.1%	4.96	5.06	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	47	198	46	30	5	100%	5.9	23.4%	14.9%	8.5%	2.6%	4.92	4.82	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	80	338	81	49	9	100%	6.2	23.9%	14.4%	9.6%	2.6%	4.78	4.72	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	92	388	93	55	11	100%	6.1	23.8%	14.1%	9.7%	2.7%	4.75	4.74	+0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	97	410	97	58	12	100%	6.1	23.7%	14.1%	9.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.81	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	97	410	96	59	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	14.3%	9.1%	3.0%	4.89	4.95	+0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	91	57	13	100%	5.8	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.2%	5.03	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	507	2141	505	307	61	100%	6.0	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.49	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	199	121	24	100%	6.0	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.85	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		33	20	113	500	109	79	2	61%	3.4	21.8%	15.9%	5.9%	0.5%	3.66	3.54	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	885	193	140	4	61%	3.4	21.8%	15.9%	5.9%	0.5%	3.66	3.54	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Tabeling (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	22.5%	17.1%	2.4%	—	4.70	23.8%	9.3%	350	-0.39	—	—	—
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	80
Phillippe Aumont R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	19.6%	18.2%	1.6%	.262	5.01	22.3%	10.4%	64	+0.40	4.61	147	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	78
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	78
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	77
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	77
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	77
Deylen Miley R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP-	4.59	21.7%	18.4%	1.8%	.320	5.34	22.3%	4.8%	88	+0.75	2.07	185	76
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	76
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	75
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	75
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.23	18.9%	5.6%	114	-0.63	3.91	263	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	23.5%	14.7%	1.03	4.83
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25