Logan Tabeling

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 197 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1013ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	27	15	89	4.06	2.66	28.2%	14.5%	—	K 21.1% · BB 17.0% · FIP 3.64
2026	24	A+LAD	6	5	24	2.22	2.24	32.0%	10.0%	—	K 24.6% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	23.9%	15.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAD	5	5	32	4.81	4.79	24.3%	14.7%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	7	7	43	4.78	4.79	24.1%	14.2%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Ext$0.7M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 25) · Sean Mooney (age 24) · Deylen Miley (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%23.9%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	89	400	113	58	1	56%	3.3	21.1%	17.0%	4.1%	0.3%	4.06	3.64	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	89	400	113	58	1	56%	3.3	21.1%	17.0%	4.1%	0.3%	4.06	3.64	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	89	400	113	58	1	56%	3.3	28.2%	14.5%	13.7%	0.2%	4.06	2.66	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	6	5	24	100	32	10	1	83%	4.1	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	1.2%	2.22	3.16	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	6	5	24	100	32	10	1	83%	4.1	24.6%	11.5%	13.1%	1.2%	2.22	3.16	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Great Lakes Loons	6	5	24	100	32	10	1	83%	4.1	32.0%	10.0%	22.0%	1.0%	2.22	2.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.9%	15.3%	8.5%	2.6%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	75	318	77	47	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	14.7%	9.7%	2.6%	4.75	4.73	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	69	290	70	41	8	100%	6.2	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	2.7%	4.72	4.73	+0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	271	65	38	8	100%	5.8	23.9%	14.1%	9.9%	2.8%	4.75	4.79	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	59	250	59	35	7	100%	5.9	23.6%	14.1%	9.5%	3.0%	4.84	4.91	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	10	10	59	247	63	34	8	100%	5.9	25.3%	13.6%	11.7%	3.2%	4.82	4.81	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	52	219	54	31	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	14.0%	10.9%	3.4%	4.94	5.01	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	5	5	32	135	33	20	4	100%	6.4	24.3%	14.7%	9.7%	2.7%	4.81	4.79	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	7	7	43	182	44	26	5	100%	6.1	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	2.8%	4.78	4.79	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	48	203	48	28	6	100%	6.0	23.9%	14.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.82	4.86	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	48	203	48	29	6	100%	6.0	23.6%	14.1%	9.5%	3.1%	4.91	4.98	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	50	211	53	29	7	100%	6.2	25.3%	13.6%	11.7%	3.3%	4.89	4.88	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	46	194	48	27	7	100%	5.8	24.9%	14.0%	10.9%	3.5%	5.02	5.09	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	45	268	1132	276	159	35	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.1%	10.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.53	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	206	119	26	100%	6.0	24.4%	14.1%	10.3%	3.1%	4.88	4.53	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		33	20	113	500	109	79	2	61%	3.4	21.8%	15.9%	5.9%	0.5%	3.66	3.54	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	885	193	140	4	61%	3.4	21.8%	15.9%	5.9%	0.5%	3.66	3.54	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 24 IPFIP 2.21 → 3.16 (+0.95)K% 32.0% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.770	24.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.150	11.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.21 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 67 IPFIP 2.45 → 3.44 (+0.99)K% 29.5% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.53%	—	×0.740	21.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.09%	—	×1.180	15.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.34%	÷1.055	×1.300	0.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 2.45 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 21 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.22 (+0.83)K% 24.5% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.51%	—	×0.770	18.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.63%	—	×1.150	21.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.992	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Tabeling (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.75	24.1%	9.8%	208	-0.08	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	82
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	81
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	80
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	79
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	79
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	77
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	77
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	76
Matt Ruppenthal R 2021 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP-	4.76	18.5%	13.8%	2.7%	.308	4.28	22.7%	7.9%	102	-0.48	3.74	283	76
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	75
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	75
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	74
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	74
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	74
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	74
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	73
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	73
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	62	24.3%	14.3%	1.11	4.80
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*