Yeiber Cartaya

P Frederick Keys

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #272MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP45ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	17	12	65	2.92	3.01	30.6%	13.7%	—	K 21.4% · BB 16.9% · FIP 4.49
2025	22	MIX2 levels	24	16	98	3.75	3.10	26.8%	14.9%	—	K 20.0% · BB 17.5% · FIP 4.12
2026	23	A+BAL	18	14	72	3.38	3.63	26.2%	13.2%	—	K 20.2% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.63
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	16	16	90	5.35	5.35	22.0%	17.9%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	8	8	47	5.15	5.05	22.9%	15.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBBAL	13	13	80	5.00	4.94	23.3%	14.9%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$1M2033Arb-3$1.0M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff57Control25Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsZach Linginfelter (age 24) · Matt Ruppenthal (age 23) · Nolan DeVos (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.35

FIP5.35

K%22.0%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5060

CTRL2525

CMD3040

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	30%	1.6	14.4%	21.1%	-6.8%	2.4%	7.47	5.86	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	10	3	16	71	15	12	1	30%	1.6	21.1%	16.9%	4.2%	1.4%	7.47	4.31	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	16.4%	21.2%	-4.8%	1.8%	5.85	5.38	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	13	4	32	153	37	26	2	31%	2.5	24.2%	17.0%	7.2%	1.3%	5.85	4.03	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	21.4%	16.9%	4.5%	1.9%	2.92	4.49	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	21.4%	16.9%	4.5%	1.9%	2.92	4.49	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	65	291	89	40	4	71%	3.8	30.6%	13.7%	16.8%	1.4%	2.92	3.01	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	20.0%	17.5%	2.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	20.0%	17.5%	2.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.12	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	98	436	117	65	3	67%	4.1	26.8%	14.9%	11.9%	0.7%	3.75	3.10	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.63	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	20.2%	15.2%	4.9%	2.4%	3.38	4.63	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	18	14	72	317	83	42	6	78%	4.0	26.2%	13.2%	12.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	16	16	90	380	83	68	10	100%	5.6	22.0%	17.9%	4.1%	2.7%	5.35	5.35	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	109	461	105	71	12	100%	5.7	22.9%	15.5%	7.4%	2.7%	5.08	4.98	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	121	511	119	76	14	100%	6.1	23.3%	14.9%	8.5%	2.7%	4.93	4.87	+0.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	119	504	117	73	14	100%	6.0	23.2%	14.6%	8.7%	2.8%	4.89	4.88	+0.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	19	19	116	489	113	71	14	100%	6.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	2.9%	4.92	4.95	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	110	467	107	69	14	100%	6.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.02	5.08	-0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	17	17	104	439	99	66	14	100%	6.1	22.5%	15.1%	7.4%	3.2%	5.16	5.26	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	47	198	45	31	6	100%	5.9	22.9%	15.5%	7.4%	2.8%	5.15	5.05	-0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	13	13	80	338	79	50	10	100%	6.2	23.3%	14.9%	8.5%	2.8%	5.00	4.94	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	15	15	92	388	90	57	11	100%	6.1	23.2%	14.6%	8.7%	2.9%	4.96	4.95	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	97	410	95	60	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	14.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.99	5.02	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	97	410	94	61	13	100%	6.1	22.9%	14.8%	8.1%	3.2%	5.09	5.15	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	16	16	93	393	88	59	13	100%	5.8	22.5%	15.1%	7.4%	3.4%	5.24	5.34	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	507	2141	492	318	65	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.07	4.70	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	125	26	100%	6.0	23.0%	14.8%	8.1%	3.0%	5.07	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		82	49	283	1268	249	221	21	60%	3.5	19.6%	17.5%	2.2%	1.7%	3.91	4.58	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	35	200	896	176	156	15	60%	3.5	19.6%	17.5%	2.2%	1.7%	3.91	4.58	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yeiber Cartaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.35	22.0%	17.9%	2.7%	—	4.91	23.2%	8.2%	350	-0.44	—	—	—
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Matt Ruppenthal R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	19.1%	14.3%	2.2%	.290	4.32	21.4%	6.5%	143	-0.18	3.74	283	83
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	82
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	78
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	78
R.J. Freure R 2021 · 6.10 FIP	24	SP-	6.10	21.7%	16.2%	5.1%	.298	5.89	20.3%	0.1%	26	-0.21	5.13	196	78
Cole Percival R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.0%	14.3%	1.6%	.335	4.23	18.6%	8.6%	99	-0.10	3.58	327	77
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	77
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	77
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	77
Deylen Miley R 2022 · 4.59 FIP	24	SP-	4.59	21.7%	18.4%	1.8%	.320	5.34	22.3%	4.8%	88	+0.75	2.07	185	77
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	76
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	76
Carlos Tavera R 2023 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP-	5.86	19.6%	17.3%	4.0%	.267	5.20	19.2%	6.0%	114	-0.66	3.85	263	76
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	76
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	75
Andrew Lee R 2018 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	21.4%	22.6%	1.6%	.232	4.44	19.1%	7.3%	169	-0.58	2.43	364	75
Bryce Conley R 2019 · 5.40 FIP	24	SP-	5.40	17.0%	16.0%	3.1%	.227	4.28	17.4%	5.6%	142	-1.12	4.22	560	75
Kevin Abel R 2023 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	21.1%	17.2%	2.8%	.347	4.70	18.3%	4.6%	347	-0.31	4.50	450	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	110	22.9%	15.2%	1.10	5.04
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Tommy Byrne ('43-'57, 6 WAR*)	6.8	124	23.8%*	13.6%*	0.98*	4.39*
Emmett O'Neill ('43-'46, -2 WAR*)	1.8	119	19.1%*	15.5%*	0.99*	5.94*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44