Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 85 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.6% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 0.0% | 0.40 | 2.28 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 1 | 15 | 0 | 23 | 85 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 43.5% | 10.6% | 32.9% | 0.0% | 0.40 | 1.03 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.6% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 0.98 | 3.37 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 18 | 69 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.7 | 30.4% | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.98 | 2.12 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 47 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.3% | 17.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 3.92 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 47 | 25 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 3.92 | 2.66 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 58 | 254 | 88 | 37 | 3 | 3% | 1.9 | 25.9% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 4.37 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 58 | 254 | 88 | 37 | 3 | 3% | 1.9 | 34.6% | 14.6% | 20.1% | 1.2% | 4.37 | 2.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 27 | 1 | 33 | 139 | 53 | 23 | 2 | 4% | 1.2 | 29.4% | 19.0% | 10.3% | 1.8% | 3.58 | 4.02 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 97 | 60 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.6% | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 25.6% | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 4.80 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 123 | 519 | 150 | 83 | 12 | — | — | 28.9% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 4.48 | 4.59 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 25.6% | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.80 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 101 | 52 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.48 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 102 | 47 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.28 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 102 | 46 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 100 | 45 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 85 | 0 | 89 | 377 | 97 | 44 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | NYM | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 68 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.28 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 81 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.26 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 85 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 11.6% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 86 | 39 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 318 | 0 | 334 | 1410 | 365 | 168 | 39 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.95 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 219 | 101 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 111 | 2 | 175 | 733 | 181 | 124 | 7 | 2% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 16.9% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 3.24 | 3.70 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 2 | 200 | 838 | 207 | 142 | 8 | 2% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 16.9% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 3.24 | 3.70 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cristofer Gomez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 25.6% | 15.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.34 | 25.9% | 13.6% | 279 | -0.46 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 86 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 85 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 85 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 84 |
| Craig Schlitter R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.76 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 3.0% | .298 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 171 | -0.32 | 4.07 | 222 | 84 |
| Akeel Morris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.63 | 26.7% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .311 | 4.35 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 107 | +0.72 | 2.94 | 305 | 84 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.91 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 3.2% | .278 | 3.58 | 24.0% | 11.4% | 53 | -1.33 | 3.58 | 104 | 84 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.59 | 16.8% | -2.7% | 73 | +1.17 | 4.42 | 113 | 84 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 84 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 84 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 146 | 83 |
| Alfredo Zarraga R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 25.1% | 13.9% | 2.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 138 | 83 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 83 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 108 | +0.29 | 3.58 | 169 | 83 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.00 | 23.8% | 14.8% | 1.9% | .284 | 2.56 | 30.9% | 21.0% | 165 | -1.44 | 1.52 | 452 | 82 |
| Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 82 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2028 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 23.7% | 17.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 23.5% | 5.1% | 71 | -1.37 | 3.28 | 197 | 82 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.18 | 22.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.59 | 18.2% | 2.0% | 53 | +0.41 | 4.18 | 103 | 82 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 82 |
| Jesen Therrien R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.94 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 2.4% | .310 | 3.39 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 76 | -0.55 | 2.70 | 192 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 92 | 25.8% | 12.7% | 1.07 | 4.45 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |