Zebby Matthews

P Minnesota Twins

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.0 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX4 levels	27	26	135	3.74	2.91	28.5%	3.3%	3.4	K 24.6% · BB 3.4% · FIP 3.35
2025	25	MIX2 levels	24	24	116	4.34	3.08	26.9%	6.6%	2.6	K 25.6% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.15
2026	26	MIX2 levels	30	30	165	4.86	4.81	21.4%	7.2%	0.2	K 20.7% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.90
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	19	19	115	4.70	4.60	22.7%	6.6%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIN	18	18	109	4.70	4.69	22.6%	6.7%	0.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIN	17	17	104	4.79	4.85	22.0%	6.9%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$4M2029Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo60

K%44

xwOBA vs42

Whiff%32

CompsJames McDonald (age 27) · Claudio Vargas (age 27) · Jeff Niemann (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.70

FIP4.60

K%22.7%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%16.2%

Proj IP115

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p4421.3%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL+3.3 (25%)

SI (6%)

CU (6%)

CT-1.3 (13%)

CH-2.2 (11%)

FB-6.4 (45%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$4M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.5	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.97	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	3	10	6	0	0	0%	1.5	60.0%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	20.0%	4.1%	15.9%	3.7%	3.84	3.96	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	20	105	424	112	15	14	91%	4.8	26.4%	3.5%	22.9%	3.3%	3.84	3.13	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	24.6%	3.4%	21.2%	3.5%	3.74	3.35	+2.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	24.6%	3.4%	21.2%	3.5%	3.74	3.35	+2.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	26	135	551	157	18	18	96%	5.0	28.5%	3.3%	25.2%	3.3%	3.74	2.91	+3.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	25.6%	6.4%	19.2%	2.6%	4.34	3.15	+2.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	25.6%	6.4%	19.2%	2.6%	4.34	3.15	+2.5
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	116	502	135	33	13	100%	4.8	26.9%	6.6%	20.3%	2.6%	4.34	3.08	+2.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	165	696	149	50	33	100%	5.5	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	4.9%	4.86	4.90	-0.0
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	165	696	149	50	33	100%	5.5	20.7%	7.0%	13.7%	4.9%	4.86	4.90	-0.0
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	165	696	149	50	33	100%	5.5	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	4.7%	4.86	4.81	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			48	48	247	1076	247	74	47	100%	5.2	23.0%	6.9%	16.1%	4.4%	5.39	4.47	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	19	19	115	486	110	32	20	100%	6.1	22.7%	6.6%	16.2%	4.0%	4.70	4.60	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	19	19	115	484	109	32	20	100%	6.0	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	4.1%	4.69	4.68	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	110	462	102	32	20	100%	6.1	22.0%	6.9%	15.1%	4.3%	4.78	4.84	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	103	434	93	31	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	4.5%	4.94	5.05	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	18	18	109	460	104	31	19	100%	6.1	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	4.1%	4.70	4.69	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	17	17	104	439	97	30	19	100%	6.1	22.0%	6.9%	15.1%	4.3%	4.79	4.85	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	16	16	98	414	88	30	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	4.5%	4.95	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	100	558	2388	536	165	103	100%	5.6	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	4.3%	5.07	4.46	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	856	192	59	37	100%	5.6	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	4.3%	5.07	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		105	100	524	2183	499	117	81	95%	5.0	22.9%	5.4%	17.5%	3.7%	4.23	3.89	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	834	191	45	31	95%	5.0	22.9%	5.4%	17.5%	3.7%	4.23	3.89	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zebby Matthews (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.7%	6.6%	4.0%	—	4.85	22.0%	15.1%	327	+0.25	—	—	—
James McDonald R 2012 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	21.2%	8.8%	3.2%	.264	3.74	18.1%	4.3%	30	-0.44	2.99	506	74
Claudio Vargas R 2005 · 4.98 FIP	27	SP	4.98	16.2%	7.2%	4.3%	.285	4.61	16.6%	9.2%	339	-0.37	3.66	765	73
Jeff Niemann R 2010 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP	4.47	17.9%	7.5%	3.5%	.257	3.87	19.1%	12.5%	173	-0.60	2.96	544	72
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	1,014	69
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	69
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	68
Bud Norris R 2012 · 4.08 FIP	27	SP	4.08	22.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.295	3.91	19.4%	11.4%	425	-0.17	3.51	1,221	68
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	67
Ryne Nelson R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	26	SP	3.62	20.0%	5.1%	2.9%	.303	4.25	20.0%	13.5%	241	+0.63	3.62	828	67
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	67
Chad Patrick R 2024 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP	3.92	22.5%	6.3%	3.5%	.262	3.78	23.0%	14.2%	268	-0.14	3.69	570	67
Aaron Civale R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	27	SP	3.63	24.4%	5.4%	3.5%	.294	4.08	21.7%	14.5%	385	+0.45	3.33	1,207	67
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.40	13.9%	5.5%	286	+2.10	3.27	965	66
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	66
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	65
Griffin Canning R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	27	SP	3.95	25.9%	6.5%	4.0%	.291	4.64	19.8%	9.8%	352	+0.69	3.60	809	65
Max Scherzer R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	27	SP	4.17	20.9%	6.6%	3.6%	.310	2.90	28.6%	21.6%	622	-1.27	2.13	3,078	64
Jay Witasick R 2000 · 4.76 FIP	27	SP-	4.76	17.4%	9.8%	3.4%	.318	3.20	24.2%	16.1%	193	-1.56	2.76	731	64
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,260	64
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	720	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	98	22.5%	6.9%	1.65	4.99
Andrew Heaney ('25)	5.7	103	23.8%	7.0%	1.58	4.57
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.6	130	21.9%	7.3%	1.61	4.74
Dan Straily ('19)	4.0	115	19.8%	9.1%	1.60	4.56
Paul Mitchell ('75-'80, 1 WAR*)	3.1	104	16.7%*	7.1%*	1.59*	4.98*
Brent Strom ('72-'77, 0 WAR*)	2.5	125	19.3%*	8.2%*	1.53*	4.78*
Jack Armstrong ('88-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.9	131	19.2%*	9.2%*	1.59*	4.89*