Greg Farone — OGILVIE

Greg Farone P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 24 LHP 6'5" / 252 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111119vR 127

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

K%18.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 113 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	106	448	121	40	11	100%	4.6	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.00	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	106	448	121	40	11	100%	4.6	20.3%	10.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.00	4.31	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	106	448	121	40	11	100%	4.6	27.0%	8.9%	18.1%	2.5%	4.00	3.30	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	25	25	107	479	106	57	20	100%	4.3	17.9%	13.1%	4.8%	5.0%	5.64	5.99	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	25	25	107	479	106	57	20	100%	4.3	17.9%	13.1%	4.8%	5.0%	5.64	5.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	SF	25	25	107	479	106	57	20	100%	4.3	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	4.2%	5.64	5.03	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	6	26	5	3	1	100%	6.2	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.95	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	113	505	111	60	21	—	—	21.9%	11.8%	10.1%	4.1%	5.60	5.94	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	448	86	45	14	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	3.0%	4.83	4.80	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	18	18	106	448	88	44	14	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	3.0%	4.76	4.74	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	104	441	87	43	14	100%	6.1	19.8%	9.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.74	4.75	+0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	17	17	101	428	84	43	14	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.0%	9.8%	3.2%	4.78	4.82	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	16	16	97	409	80	42	14	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	3.3%	4.88	4.95	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	15	15	91	384	73	40	14	100%	6.1	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.5%	5.03	5.13	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	47	198	38	20	6	100%	5.9	19.3%	10.1%	9.2%	2.8%	4.70	4.67	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	12	12	71	300	59	30	8	100%	5.9	19.7%	9.9%	9.8%	2.8%	4.64	4.62	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	81	342	68	34	10	100%	5.8	19.8%	9.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.61	4.62	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	85	359	71	36	11	100%	6.1	19.7%	10.0%	9.8%	2.9%	4.65	4.69	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	85	359	70	37	11	100%	6.1	19.5%	10.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.74	4.81	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	82	346	66	36	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	75	451	1904	371	192	57	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.36	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	85	25	100%	6.0	19.5%	10.1%	9.4%	3.0%	4.71	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		48	48	213	927	177	109	37	100%	4.4	19.1%	11.8%	7.3%	4.0%	4.82	5.18	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	45	200	872	166	103	35	100%	4.4	19.1%	11.8%	7.3%	4.0%	4.82	5.18	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Greg Farone (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	18.6%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.76	19.6%	9.6%	317	-0.19	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	90
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	84
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	82
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	82
Tyler Schweitzer L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP	4.50	19.6%	11.3%	3.0%	.293	4.16	16.8%	8.8%	318	-0.34	3.98	425	81
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	81
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	81
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	80
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	80
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	80
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	80
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	80
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	79
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.18 FIP	24	SP	5.18	19.3%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.49	24.7%	15.9%	190	-1.69	2.88	532	79
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	79
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	78
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	78
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	78
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	77
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	97	19.4%	10.1%	1.23	4.84
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09