Elvis Soto prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Elvis Soto P Salem Red Sox

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 174 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%22.2%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP29

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Blue	15	0	24	95	31	9	2	0%	1.6	22.2%	11.8%	10.3%	3.3%	3.42	4.54	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Blue	15	0	24	95	31	9	2	0%	1.6	32.6%	9.5%	23.2%	2.1%	3.42	2.72	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	48	203	46	21	3	86%	3.5	16.1%	12.6%	3.6%	1.9%	4.28	4.39	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	48	203	46	21	3	86%	3.5	16.1%	12.6%	3.6%	1.9%	4.28	4.39	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	48	203	46	21	3	86%	3.5	22.7%	10.3%	12.3%	1.5%	4.28	3.31	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	28	0	30	126	29	12	4	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.39	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	14	0	15	63	15	6	2	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	62	14	6	2	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	82	27	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	2.9%	4.46	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		29	12	72	298	54	37	7	41%	2.5	18.1%	12.3%	5.7%	2.4%	4.00	4.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	33	200	828	150	102	20	41%	2.5	18.1%	12.3%	5.7%	2.4%	4.00	4.43	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elvis Soto (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.2%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.1%	13.3%	30	-0.20	—	—	—
Carson Rudd R 2021 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	25.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.351	5.24	21.6%	5.6%	193	+1.85	3.39	242	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	23	SW	3.74	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.55	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.81	2.08	276	83
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	80
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	80
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	80
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	79
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	79
Franco Aleman R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SW	3.95	21.3%	8.2%	2.9%	.391	2.98	28.9%	18.9%	114	-0.97	2.28	226	79
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	79
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	78
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	78
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	78
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	78
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	78
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	77
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	22.7%	10.2%	1.15	4.52
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10