Frank Camarillo

P St. Lucie Mets

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	14	14	56	5.11	4.09	17.8%	7.1%	—	K 13.4% · BB 8.2% · FIP 5.05
2027PROJ	23	MLBNYM	7	7	39	4.89	4.89	16.0%	8.4%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBNYM	4	4	22	4.74	4.68	18.1%	8.3%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBNYM	6	6	35	4.62	4.56	19.3%	8.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsBrandon White (age 23) · Marcelo Perez (age 23) · Cole Wiper (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%16.0%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	241	43	17	7	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	56	241	43	17	7	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	56	241	43	17	7	100%	4.0	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	2.9%	5.11	4.09	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	NYM	7	7	39	165	26	14	5	100%	5.6	16.0%	8.4%	7.6%	3.1%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	52	220	40	18	7	100%	5.8	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.74	4.68	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	53	222	43	18	7	100%	5.8	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.56	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	53	222	44	18	7	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	52	219	44	18	7	100%	5.8	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	22	93	17	8	3	100%	5.5	18.1%	8.3%	9.8%	3.0%	4.74	4.68	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	35	148	29	12	4	100%	5.8	19.3%	8.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.56	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	42	177	35	15	5	100%	6.0	20.0%	8.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.50	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	7	7	44	186	37	15	6	100%	6.3	20.0%	8.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.53	4.53	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		24	24	143	603	118	50	18	100%	6.0	19.5%	8.3%	11.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.17	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	165	70	25	100%	5.9	19.5%	8.3%	11.3%	3.0%	4.58	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		14	14	56	241	32	20	9	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	50	200	856	115	71	32	100%	4.0	13.4%	8.2%	5.1%	3.7%	5.11	5.05	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frank Camarillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	16.0%	8.4%	3.1%	—	4.58	19.1%	10.9%	157	-0.31	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	86
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	86
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	85
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	85
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	84
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	83
Octavio Acosta R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	15.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.337	4.39	16.3%	4.8%	184	-0.34	3.88	333	83
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	83
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	83
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	82
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	81
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	81
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.48	21.4%	12.8%	178	-0.58	2.48	298	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	50	18.8%	8.3%	1.18	4.65
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*