Cesar Espinal

P ACL Brewers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	5	19	3.72	4.34	24.7%	20.4%	—	K 16.8% · BB 25.5% · FIP 5.75
2025	19	ROKMIL	14	0	15	7.20	5.23	15.2%	12.7%	—	K 10.3% · BB 15.8% · FIP 6.24
2026	20	MIX2 levels	24	0	30	3.94	4.68	28.0%	20.8%	—	K 19.5% · BB 18.7% · FIP 6.47
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	10	0	11	5.44	5.44	21.0%	16.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	13	0	14	5.14	5.01	22.1%	13.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsMichael Perez (age 21) · Brandon Dufault (age 22) · Paul Gervase (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%21.0%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%4.7%

Proj IP11

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	11	0	20	92	16	14	1	0%	1.8	11.8%	19.0%	-7.2%	1.8%	5.49	5.51	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	11	0	20	92	16	14	1	0%	1.8	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	1.1%	5.49	4.27	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	9	8	34	136	34	11	2	89%	3.8	17.0%	10.1%	6.9%	2.4%	3.18	4.28	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	9	8	34	136	34	11	2	89%	3.8	25.0%	8.1%	16.9%	1.5%	3.18	2.84	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	5	19	93	23	19	1	45%	1.8	16.8%	25.5%	-8.7%	1.5%	3.72	5.75	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	5	19	93	23	19	1	45%	1.8	16.8%	25.5%	-8.7%	1.5%	3.72	5.75	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	5	19	93	23	19	1	45%	1.8	24.7%	20.4%	4.3%	1.1%	3.72	4.34	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	14	0	15	79	12	10	2	0%	1.1	10.3%	15.8%	-5.5%	3.7%	7.20	6.24	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	14	0	15	79	12	10	2	0%	1.1	10.3%	15.8%	-5.5%	3.7%	7.20	6.24	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	14	0	15	79	12	10	2	0%	1.1	15.2%	12.7%	2.5%	2.5%	7.20	5.23	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	30	125	35	26	3	0%	1.2	19.5%	18.7%	0.9%	4.8%	3.94	6.47	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	30	125	35	26	3	0%	1.2	19.5%	18.7%	0.9%	4.8%	3.94	6.47	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	30	125	35	26	3	0%	1.2	28.0%	20.8%	7.2%	2.4%	3.94	4.68	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	10	0	11	46	10	8	1	0%	1.1	21.0%	16.3%	4.7%	3.0%	5.44	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	27	0	28	118	26	16	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	3.0%	5.14	5.01	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	13	0	14	59	13	8	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	3.0%	5.14	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	13	8	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	3.0%	5.14	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	116	29	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	3.0%	5.14	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		69	13	118	525	82	91	15	19%	1.7	15.7%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.36	5.57	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	22	200	892	140	154	26	19%	1.7	15.7%	17.3%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.36	5.57	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cesar Espinal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	21.0%	16.3%	3.0%	—	5.01	22.1%	8.2%	28	-0.43	—	—	—
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	89
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	86
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	85
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Isaac Gallegos R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.9%	17.8%	1.8%	.267	3.09	19.9%	10.5%	106	-1.31	2.89	125	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	83
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	83
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	83
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	83
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83