Adrian Herrera — OGILVIE

Adrian Herrera P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.07

FIP5.07

K%21.4%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	6	60	267	72	26	10	32%	3.2	18.8%	11.9%	6.9%	4.8%	5.52	5.64	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	6	60	267	72	26	10	32%	3.2	18.8%	11.9%	6.9%	4.8%	5.52	5.64	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	6	60	267	72	26	10	32%	3.2	27.0%	9.7%	17.2%	3.7%	5.52	4.16	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	7	42	198	53	26	5	41%	2.5	19.8%	16.8%	3.0%	3.6%	5.83	5.52	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	7	42	198	53	26	5	41%	2.5	19.8%	16.8%	3.0%	3.6%	5.83	5.52	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	7	42	198	53	26	5	41%	2.5	26.8%	13.1%	13.6%	2.5%	5.83	3.99	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	24	0	25	106	23	14	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	13.6%	7.8%	3.1%	5.07	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	37	0	39	164	37	20	5	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	18	0	19	80	18	10	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	81	18	10	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.39	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	188	105	21	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.0%	10.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.39	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		36	13	102	465	89	65	20	36%	2.8	19.2%	14.0%	5.2%	4.3%	5.65	5.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	25	200	912	175	128	39	36%	2.8	19.2%	14.0%	5.2%	4.3%	5.65	5.59	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Herrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.07	21.4%	13.6%	3.1%	—	4.77	22.3%	10.3%	39	-0.30	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	88
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	80
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	79
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	79
Rafael Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	20	SW	4.11	21.8%	16.3%	1.4%	.303	5.08	15.7%	-4.4%	82	+0.97	3.42	162	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	78
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	78
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	78
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	78
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	78
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	78
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	77
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	77
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	21.9%	12.6%	1.17	4.94
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44