Manuel Rodriguez
P
Biloxi Shuckers
+0.8
WAR
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 3.0 · 2032
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%14.0%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
3.0peak
2032
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 153 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 10.7% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.54 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 10 | 5 | 41 | 175 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 13.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 4.35 | 7.28 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 18 | 18 | 95 | 373 | 77 | 10 | 11 | 15.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.23 | 4.09 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 19 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 19 | 19 | 90 | 352 | 88 | 15 | 13 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.01 | 4.22 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 2 | 2 | 10 | 43 | 11 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 1.74 | — | — |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 353 | 74 | 25 | 11 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 20 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 94 | 396 | 85 | 29 | 13 | 21.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.08 | 3.89 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 371 | 80 | 25 | 12 | 21.5% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.26 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 108 | 31 | 15 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 4.18 | 4.10 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 139 | 585 | 135 | 37 | 18 | 23.1% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 4.07 | 3.98 | +2.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 158 | 668 | 158 | 41 | 20 | 23.6% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 3.90 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 172 | 727 | 175 | 43 | 22 | 24.0% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.89 | 3.84 | +2.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 33 | 33 | 179 | 756 | 183 | 45 | 23 | 24.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +3.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 178 | 751 | 182 | 45 | 23 | 24.2% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.83 | +3.0 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 32 | 32 | 175 | 739 | 179 | 44 | 22 | 24.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.85 | 3.86 | +2.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 31 | 31 | 171 | 723 | 174 | 44 | 22 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 3.88 | 3.90 | +2.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 30 | 166 | 701 | 167 | 43 | 22 | 23.9% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +2.5 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 160 | 677 | 160 | 43 | 22 | 23.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.04 | +2.3 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 154 | 650 | 152 | 42 | 21 | 23.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 4.08 | 4.13 | +2.0 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 27 | 147 | 621 | 143 | 41 | 21 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.17 | 4.22 | +1.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 49 | 272 | 1096 | 177 | 58 | 46 | 16.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.45 | 4.72 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 36 | 200 | 807 | 130 | 43 | 34 | 16.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.45 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 21.0% | 7.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.09 | 22.5% | 16.0% | 341 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.38 | 19.8% | 5.0% | 2.4% | .287 | 5.84 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 107 | +2.46 | 3.38 | 203 | 90 |
| Blake Money R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | .281 | 4.05 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 121 | +0.52 | 3.53 | 224 | 87 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.32 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .330 | 4.96 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.64 | 4.32 | 292 | 87 |
| Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .259 | 3.72 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 93 | -0.13 | 2.77 | 186 | 86 |
| Aaron Phillips R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.95 | 20.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | .290 | 5.21 | 13.7% | 3.6% | 188 | +1.26 | 3.95 | 289 | 86 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.38 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | -0.13 | 4.28 | 433 | 86 |
| Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.82 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .273 | 4.78 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 83 | +0.96 | 3.82 | 182 | 85 |
| McCade Brown R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .349 | 4.62 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 117 | +0.57 | 4.05 | 207 | 85 |
| Taylor Dollard R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 3.7% | .361 | 3.43 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 144 | -0.63 | 3.43 | 318 | 85 |
| Braxton Bragg R 2029 · 3.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.78 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | .325 | 2.60 | 26.2% | 18.1% | 59 | -1.18 | 2.60 | 155 | 85 |
| Colin Peluse R 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .299 | 5.61 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.41 | 3.05 | 395 | 85 |
| Ryan Gallagher R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.34 | 20.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | .304 | 4.08 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 14 | -0.26 | 4.08 | 135 | 84 |
| Osmer Morales R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .319 | 4.56 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 345 | +0.26 | 3.14 | 429 | 84 |
| Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.38 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .327 | 4.25 | 21.5% | 2.2% | 65 | +0.87 | 3.38 | 151 | 84 |
| David Hill R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.56 | 17.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | .355 | 4.21 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 35 | +0.65 | 3.56 | 215 | 84 |
| Wil Jensen R 2029 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.37 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | -0.01 | 3.50 | 368 | 84 |
| Reid Johnston R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 2.7% | .297 | 5.02 | 19.5% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.28 | 3.74 | 204 | 83 |
| Ryan Lillie R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.14 | 16.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | .272 | 4.82 | 15.3% | 6.7% | 146 | +0.68 | 3.00 | 310 | 83 |
| David Perez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.20 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.21 | 3.99 | 151 | 83 |
| David Burkhalter R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.69 | 16.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.99 | 12.9% | 8.5% | 88 | +0.30 | 3.09 | 189 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +2.1 | $18M | +$18M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +2.5 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +2.8 | $26M | +$25M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +3.0 | $29M | +$22M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +3.0 | $30M | +$19M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $15M | +2.9 | $29M | +$15M |
| Totals | $34M | $154M | +$120M | ||