Manuel Rodriguez
P
Biloxi Shuckers
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 175 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.4 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 59 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 96
ERA4.20
FIP4.20
K%18.1%
BB%4.5%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 141 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 153 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 42% | 3.0 | 10.7% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.54 | 4.35 | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL Brewers 1 | 12 | 5 | 36 | 153 | 24 | 9 | 3 | 42% | 3.0 | 15.7% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 4.54 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 10 | 5 | 41 | 175 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 50% | 4.1 | 13.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 4.35 | 7.30 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 10 | 5 | 41 | 175 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 50% | 4.1 | 19.4% | 5.7% | 13.7% | 4.6% | 4.35 | 4.70 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 18 | 18 | 95 | 373 | 77 | 10 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.3% | 3.2% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.23 | 3.96 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 18 | 18 | 95 | 373 | 77 | 10 | 11 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.6% | 2.7% | 18.0% | 2.9% | 3.23 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 90 | 352 | 88 | 15 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 14.5% | 3.1% | 3.01 | 3.78 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 19 | 90 | 352 | 88 | 15 | 13 | 100% | 4.7 | 25.0% | 4.3% | 20.7% | 3.7% | 3.01 | 3.52 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 17 | 16 | 82 | 332 | 79 | 15 | 20 | 94% | 4.8 | 19.3% | 5.0% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 4.83 | 6.07 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 59 | 247 | 45 | 11 | 8 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.1% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 141 | 579 | 124 | 26 | 28 | — | — | 21.4% | 4.5% | 16.9% | 4.8% | 4.57 | 5.29 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 20 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.1% | 4.5% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.17 | 3.79 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 50 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.1 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.12 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 55 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 4.7% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 13 | 13 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.2% | 4.6% | 16.5% | 2.9% | 3.95 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 63 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 65 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 4.4% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.73 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 66 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 4.3% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.74 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 69 | 290 | 65 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.3% | 4.4% | 17.9% | 2.9% | 3.74 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 281 | 62 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 4.6% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 3.79 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 268 | 59 | 13 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.0% | 4.8% | 17.2% | 3.1% | 3.89 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 6 | 6 | 31 | 131 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 47 | 198 | 40 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.3% | 4.7% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 4.02 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 57 | 241 | 51 | 11 | 7 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.2% | 4.6% | 16.5% | 2.8% | 3.92 | 3.84 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 56 | 12 | 7 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.8% | 4.5% | 17.3% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 60 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 4.4% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 3.75 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 4.3% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 61 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.3% | 4.4% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.71 | 3.72 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.2% | 4.6% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.76 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 56 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 4.8% | 17.2% | 3.1% | 3.86 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 90 | 515 | 2174 | 471 | 99 | 62 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 4.6% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.42 | +11.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 38 | 24 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 4.6% | 17.1% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 76 | 63 | 343 | 1385 | 230 | 71 | 64 | 83% | 4.5 | 16.6% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 3.83 | 4.89 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 807 | 134 | 41 | 37 | 83% | 4.5 | 16.6% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 3.83 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 18.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | — | 3.98 | 20.2% | 15.5% | 193 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Hyun-il Choi R 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .293 | 4.37 | 19.1% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.40 | 3.97 | 455 | 92 |
| Matt Eckelman R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.30 | 15.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | .265 | 4.60 | 16.3% | 5.4% | 169 | +0.30 | 4.10 | 386 | 86 |
| Félix Paulino R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.33 | 15.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | .260 | 4.36 | 14.4% | 5.4% | 198 | +1.03 | 3.33 | 394 | 86 |
| Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.57 | 19.8% | 5.0% | 2.8% | .287 | 5.84 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 107 | +2.27 | 3.57 | 203 | 84 |
| Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | .277 | 3.55 | 28.6% | 22.7% | 66 | -0.25 | 3.55 | 276 | 80 |
| Geoffrey Bramblett R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.75 | 15.1% | 5.8% | 2.2% | .223 | 5.31 | 11.3% | 1.5% | 81 | +1.56 | 3.75 | 130 | 80 |
| Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.37 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .327 | 4.12 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 132 | +0.75 | 3.37 | 219 | 80 |
| Landon Marceaux R 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.01 | 16.1% | 4.9% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.97 | 13.3% | 5.3% | 61 | +0.96 | 4.01 | 146 | 80 |
| Kendry Chourio R 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.56 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 2.4% | .240 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.26 | 119 | 80 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 80 |
| Dylan Unsworth R 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.88 | 16.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.08 | 14.2% | 9.5% | 270 | +0.20 | 3.06 | 377 | 79 |
| Cody Bolton R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.87 | 18.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | .306 | 4.36 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 102 | +0.49 | 2.99 | 403 | 79 |
| Khal Stephen R 2028 · 3.05 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.05 | 20.6% | 5.7% | 1.8% | .284 | 4.72 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 55 | +1.67 | 3.05 | 158 | 79 |
| Pedro Barrios R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.31 | 14.7% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 159 | 79 |
| Manuel Olivares R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.06 | 18.7% | 4.9% | 1.7% | .359 | 3.91 | 14.5% | 4.5% | 126 | +0.85 | 3.06 | 318 | 79 |
| Aaron Phillips R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.85 | 20.7% | 4.4% | 3.5% | .290 | 5.27 | 13.7% | 3.6% | 188 | +1.42 | 3.85 | 289 | 78 |
| Peniel Otano R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.06 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .307 | 4.65 | 14.6% | -1.0% | 176 | +1.59 | 3.06 | 232 | 78 |
| Adam Mazur R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.48 | 18.0% | 4.9% | 2.3% | .326 | 5.15 | 18.4% | 11.0% | 264 | +1.67 | 3.48 | 360 | 78 |
| Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.19 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .333 | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 341 | +0.25 | 4.19 | 433 | 78 |
| Ryan Sloan R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.75 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 133 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 66 | 21.2% | 4.6% | 1.14 | 3.91 |
| Yusmeiro Petit ('21) | 7 | 72 | 20.4% | 4.6% | 1.27 | 3.28 |
| Tommy Hunter ('23) | 7 | 41 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 1.00 | 3.72 |
| Jesse Chavez ('24) | 9 | 82 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 1.26 | 3.94 |
| Jake McGee ('22) | 8 | 44 | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 4.27 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 8 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |