Manuel Rodriguez

Manuel Rodriguez P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 3.2 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%18.1%

BB%4.0%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP59

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$68M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$10M	+$9M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$11M	+$10M
2032	Arb-1	$6M	+2.0	$10M	+$7M
2033	Arb-2	$10M	+1.9	$9M	+$4M
2034	Arb-3	$14M	+1.8	$8M	+$2M
Totals		$33M		$58M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	5	36	153	24	9	3	42%	3.0	10.7%	7.4%	3.3%	2.5%	4.54	4.48	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	12	5	36	153	24	9	3	42%	3.0	15.7%	5.9%	9.8%	2.0%	4.54	3.60	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	13.2%	7.1%	6.1%	7.1%	4.35	6.80	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	13.2%	7.1%	6.1%	7.1%	4.35	6.80	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	19.4%	5.7%	13.7%	4.6%	4.35	4.70	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	15.3%	3.2%	12.1%	3.5%	3.23	4.12	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	15.3%	3.2%	12.1%	3.5%	3.23	4.12	—
2024	18	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	20.6%	2.7%	18.0%	2.9%	3.23	3.30	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	19.7%	5.3%	14.5%	3.7%	3.01	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	19.7%	5.3%	14.5%	3.7%	3.01	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	25.0%	4.3%	20.7%	3.7%	3.01	3.52	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	25	128	533	110	31	31	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.4%	10.3%	7.0%	4.92	6.33	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	26	25	128	533	110	31	31	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.4%	10.3%	7.0%	4.92	6.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	AA RAW	MIL	26	25	128	533	110	31	31	96%	4.9	20.6%	5.8%	14.8%	5.8%	4.92	5.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	132	556	105	23	17	100%	5.3	19.0%	4.2%	14.8%	3.1%	4.16	4.12	+1.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	138	584	117	24	18	100%	5.3	20.1%	4.1%	16.0%	3.0%	4.05	3.97	+1.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	144	606	127	24	18	100%	5.3	20.9%	3.9%	17.0%	3.0%	3.94	3.86	+1.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	26	26	147	621	133	24	18	100%	5.7	21.5%	3.8%	17.7%	3.0%	3.85	3.78	+2.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	149	629	137	23	19	100%	6.0	21.9%	3.7%	18.2%	3.0%	3.77	3.72	+2.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	149	629	139	23	19	100%	6.0	22.1%	3.6%	18.4%	3.0%	3.73	3.70	+2.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	147	619	137	23	19	100%	6.1	22.1%	3.7%	18.4%	3.0%	3.73	3.74	+2.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	24	24	142	601	132	23	19	100%	5.9	21.9%	3.9%	18.1%	3.1%	3.78	3.82	+1.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	23	23	136	574	124	23	19	100%	5.9	21.7%	4.1%	17.6%	3.3%	3.88	3.95	+1.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	21	21	128	539	115	24	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	4.4%	17.0%	3.5%	4.03	4.13	+1.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	119	503	105	24	19	100%	6.0	20.9%	4.7%	16.2%	3.7%	4.21	4.33	+0.8
2038	32	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	110	465	95	24	18	100%	6.1	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	3.9%	4.42	4.56	+0.4
2039	33	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	101	427	85	24	18	100%	5.9	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	4.2%	4.65	4.81	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	66	279	53	12	9	100%	5.1	19.0%	4.2%	14.8%	3.3%	4.25	4.21	+0.6
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	101	426	86	17	14	100%	5.3	20.1%	4.1%	16.0%	3.2%	4.13	4.05	+1.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	121	511	107	20	16	100%	5.3	20.9%	3.9%	17.0%	3.2%	4.02	3.94	+1.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	131	553	119	21	17	100%	5.7	21.5%	3.8%	17.7%	3.1%	3.93	3.86	+1.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	137	578	127	21	18	100%	6.0	21.9%	3.7%	18.2%	3.1%	3.85	3.80	+2.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	139	587	130	21	18	100%	6.0	22.1%	3.6%	18.4%	3.1%	3.81	3.78	+2.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	23	23	139	587	129	22	19	100%	6.0	22.1%	3.7%	18.4%	3.2%	3.81	3.82	+1.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	135	570	125	22	19	100%	6.1	21.9%	3.9%	18.1%	3.3%	3.87	3.91	+1.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	22	22	129	545	118	22	19	100%	5.9	21.7%	4.1%	17.6%	3.4%	3.97	4.04	+1.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	20	20	121	511	109	22	19	100%	6.0	21.3%	4.4%	17.0%	3.6%	4.12	4.22	+1.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	19	19	113	477	100	23	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	4.7%	16.2%	3.9%	4.31	4.43	+0.8
2038	32	MLB CTX	MIL	18	18	105	443	91	23	18	100%	5.8	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	4.1%	4.53	4.67	+0.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	96	405	81	23	18	100%	6.0	20.0%	5.6%	14.4%	4.4%	4.77	4.93	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	264	1535	6479	1375	269	221	100%	5.8	21.2%	4.2%	17.1%	3.4%	4.07	3.71	+22.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	179	35	29	100%	5.8	21.2%	4.2%	17.1%	3.4%	4.07	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		85	72	389	1586	255	88	79	85%	4.6	16.1%	5.6%	10.5%	5.0%	3.98	5.19	+18.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	815	131	45	41	85%	4.6	16.1%	5.6%	10.5%	5.0%	3.98	5.19	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	18.1%	4.0%	3.2%	—	3.98	20.0%	16.0%	414	-0.23	—	—	—
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	88
Félix Paulino R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	20	SP	3.33	15.6%	3.1%	2.1%	.260	4.30	14.4%	5.4%	198	+0.97	3.33	394	87
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	84
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	83
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	80
Manuel Olivares R 2022 · 3.23 FIP	20	SP	3.23	18.7%	4.9%	2.0%	.359	3.86	14.5%	4.5%	126	+0.63	3.23	354	80
Cody Bolton R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	18.6%	4.6%	3.7%	.306	3.89	19.7%	11.4%	102	-0.25	2.86	403	79
Davidxon Lara R 2023 · 3.49 FIP	17	SP	3.49	13.8%	3.7%	2.0%	.286	4.62	15.7%	7.4%	109	+1.13	2.26	149	79
Landon Marceaux R 2022 · 3.64 FIP	22	SP	3.64	16.1%	4.9%	2.3%	.245	4.81	13.3%	5.3%	61	+1.17	3.64	146	79
Dylan Unsworth R 2015 · 3.78 FIP	22	SP-	3.78	16.9%	4.2%	2.9%	.333	4.05	14.2%	9.5%	270	+0.27	3.05	377	78
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	78
Parker French R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	22	SP	3.77	12.4%	1.3%	2.8%	.297	4.64	11.0%	2.8%	366	+0.87	3.58	415	78
Jose Bravo R 2016 · 3.42 FIP	19	SP	3.42	13.1%	1.9%	2.1%	.347	3.69	15.5%	10.7%	128	+0.27	2.12	364	77
Geoffrey Bramblett R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	21	SP	3.75	15.1%	5.8%	2.2%	.223	5.35	11.3%	1.5%	81	+1.60	3.75	130	77
Logan Shore R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	22	SP-	3.09	18.3%	5.9%	1.4%	.350	4.17	13.2%	4.9%	188	+1.08	3.09	386	77
Ken Figueroa R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	20	SP	3.93	12.7%	3.0%	2.8%	.358	3.15	12.1%	3.6%	29	-0.78	3.15	152	77
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	77
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	77
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	77
Lazaro Estrada R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP	3.09	21.2%	5.4%	2.0%	.250	4.46	22.7%	11.7%	16	+1.37	1.92	415	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.0	129	21.0%	4.1%	1.25	3.99
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17