Manuel Rodriguez

P Biloxi Shuckers

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2032

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP40OGV rank#217ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ACarolina Mudc…	18	18	95	3.23	3.30	20.6%	2.7%	—	K 15.3% · BB 3.2% · FIP 4.12
2025	19	MIX2 levels	19	19	90	3.01	3.52	25.0%	4.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.12
2026	20	AAMIL	27	26	133	4.74	5.10	20.9%	5.6%	—	K 16.9% · BB 6.2% · FIP 6.16
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	1	1	2	5.14	5.14	16.9%	5.0%	0.0
2028PROJ50% MLB	22	MLBMIL	10	10	52	5.06	4.99	18.5%	4.9%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	14	14	77	4.89	4.81	19.5%	4.8%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$2M2034Arb-2$3M+1

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control60Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 77%

CompsMatt Eckelman (age 22) · Garrett Stallings (age 23) · Seth Shuman (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%16.9%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP82

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$36M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL6060

CMD5555

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M
Totals		$10M		$13M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	16	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	5	36	153	24	9	3	42%	3.0	10.7%	7.4%	3.3%	2.5%	4.54	4.48	—
2022	16	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	12	5	36	153	24	9	3	42%	3.0	15.7%	5.9%	9.8%	2.0%	4.54	3.60	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	13.2%	7.1%	6.1%	7.1%	4.35	6.80	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	10	5	41	175	34	10	8	50%	4.1	19.4%	5.7%	13.7%	4.6%	4.35	4.70	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	15.3%	3.2%	12.1%	3.5%	3.23	4.12	—
2024	18	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	15.3%	3.2%	12.1%	3.5%	3.23	4.12	—
2024	18	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	18	18	95	373	77	10	11	100%	5.3	20.6%	2.7%	18.0%	2.9%	3.23	3.30	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	19.7%	5.3%	14.5%	3.7%	3.01	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	19.7%	5.3%	14.5%	3.7%	3.01	4.12	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	90	352	88	15	13	100%	4.7	25.0%	4.3%	20.7%	3.7%	3.01	3.52	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	26	133	551	115	31	31	96%	4.9	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	6.8%	4.74	6.16	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	27	26	133	551	115	31	31	96%	4.9	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	6.8%	4.74	6.16	—
2026	20	AA RAW	Biloxi Shuckers	27	26	133	551	115	31	31	96%	4.9	20.9%	5.6%	15.2%	5.6%	4.74	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	1	1	2	8	1	0	0	100%	2.0	16.9%	5.0%	11.9%	4.5%	5.14	5.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	105	442	82	22	19	100%	5.2	18.5%	4.9%	13.7%	4.3%	4.94	4.87	+0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	20	20	105	442	86	21	18	100%	5.2	19.5%	4.8%	14.8%	4.1%	4.78	4.70	+0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	19	19	105	442	89	21	18	100%	5.5	20.2%	4.7%	15.5%	4.0%	4.65	4.58	+1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	98	413	85	19	17	100%	5.8	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	4.0%	4.57	4.52	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	98	415	86	19	17	100%	6.1	20.8%	4.6%	16.2%	4.0%	4.53	4.50	+1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	96	406	84	19	16	100%	6.0	20.8%	4.7%	16.1%	4.0%	4.53	4.54	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	92	388	80	19	16	100%	6.1	20.7%	4.8%	15.8%	4.1%	4.58	4.62	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	86	361	74	18	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	5.1%	15.4%	4.3%	4.68	4.75	+0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	78	327	66	18	15	100%	6.0	20.1%	5.3%	14.7%	4.5%	4.83	4.93	+0.4
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	69	292	57	17	14	100%	5.8	19.7%	5.7%	14.0%	4.7%	5.01	5.13	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	52	220	41	11	10	100%	5.2	18.5%	4.9%	13.7%	4.5%	5.06	4.99	+0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	77	325	63	16	14	100%	5.5	19.5%	4.8%	14.8%	4.3%	4.89	4.81	+0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	87	367	74	17	16	100%	5.4	20.2%	4.7%	15.5%	4.2%	4.76	4.69	+0.8
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	87	367	76	17	15	100%	5.8	20.6%	4.6%	16.0%	4.2%	4.68	4.63	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	90	380	79	17	16	100%	6.0	20.8%	4.6%	16.2%	4.2%	4.64	4.61	+0.9
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	89	376	78	18	16	100%	5.9	20.8%	4.7%	16.1%	4.2%	4.64	4.65	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	86	363	75	18	16	100%	6.1	20.7%	4.8%	15.8%	4.4%	4.69	4.73	+0.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	81	342	70	17	15	100%	5.8	20.4%	5.1%	15.4%	4.5%	4.80	4.87	+0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	74	312	63	17	15	100%	6.2	20.1%	5.3%	14.7%	4.7%	4.95	5.05	+0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	66	279	55	16	14	100%	6.0	19.7%	5.7%	14.0%	5.0%	5.14	5.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	788	3328	673	163	146	100%	5.8	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	4.4%	4.80	4.43	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	171	41	37	100%	5.8	20.2%	4.9%	15.3%	4.4%	4.80	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		86	73	394	1604	259	88	79	85%	4.6	16.1%	5.5%	10.6%	4.9%	3.93	5.15	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	37	200	814	131	45	40	85%	4.6	16.1%	5.5%	10.6%	4.9%	3.93	5.15	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABiloxi Shuckers · 133 IPFIP 5.14 → 6.16 (+1.02)K% 20.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.87%	—	×0.810	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.63%	—	×1.100	6.19%
HR / BF /BF	5.63%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.14 → 6.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 84 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.12 (+0.59)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.61%	—	×0.770	19.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.57%	—	×1.150	5.26%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.246	×1.250	3.67%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 149).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 6 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.30 (+0.33)K% 16.7% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.67%	—	×0.810	13.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.170	×1.200	4.27%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ACarolina Mudcats · 95 IPFIP 3.32 → 4.12 (+0.81)K% 20.6% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.64%	—	×0.740	15.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.68%	—	×1.180	3.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷1.101	×1.300	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 120).

Result: FIP 3.32 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKACL Brewers · 41 IPFIP 4.69 → 6.80 (+2.11)K% 19.4% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.43%	—	×0.680	13.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.71%	—	×1.250	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	4.57%	÷0.898	×1.400	7.12%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 4.69 → 6.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Brewers 1 · 36 IPFIP 3.60 → 4.48 (+0.88)K% 15.7% → 10.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.69%	—	×0.680	10.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷1.116	×1.400	2.46%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	16.9%	5.0%	4.5%	—	4.72	19.4%	14.6%	314	-0.42	—	—	—
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	88
Garrett Stallings R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	17.1%	5.2%	4.9%	.305	4.83	19.0%	11.4%	326	-0.16	3.19	627	86
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	84
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	84
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	84
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	82
Tanner Gordon R 2021 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	18.5%	5.5%	3.8%	.290	4.67	18.5%	11.9%	349	+0.32	4.10	715	82
Kevin Slowey R 2007 · 5.19 FIP	23	SP	5.19	15.8%	3.7%	5.4%	.296	3.89	18.3%	14.5%	407	-1.30	3.53	662	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	82
J.D. Busfield R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	22	SP	4.62	12.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.293	4.82	11.5%	6.4%	68	+0.20	4.62	177	81
Brandon McCarthy R 2005 · 4.99 FIP	22	SP	4.99	17.3%	6.1%	4.7%	.246	4.70	15.4%	6.6%	208	-0.29	3.00	1,238	81
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	81
Rafael Soriano R 2002 · 4.88 FIP	22	SP-	4.88	15.8%	7.4%	4.0%	.252	1.48	33.8%	28.3%	53	-3.40	1.48	620	80
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	80
Nick Gardewine R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	21	SP-	4.24	14.4%	6.3%	2.8%	.334	3.18	24.5%	16.4%	104	-1.06	2.62	200	80
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	80
Ryan Lillie R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.83	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.70	3.00	310	80
Kirk Saarloos R 2002 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	14.5%	5.9%	3.2%	.310	4.14	10.4%	3.4%	233	-0.25	3.25	509	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80
Will Ethridge R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.54	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.40	3.57	227	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	92	19.9%	4.9%	1.63	4.74
Josh Tomlin ('21)	5.3	97	16.5%	3.4%	1.66	4.77
Doug Bird ('73-'83, 10 WAR*)	6.1	110	20.3%*	5.8%*	1.41*	4.43*
Tommy Milone ('23)	4.8	95	17.4%	5.7%	1.53	4.58
Phil Hughes ('18)	6.5	108	18.9%	5.7%	1.33	4.52
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*
George Stone ('67-'75, 5 WAR*)	5.1	128	17.8%*	6.0%*	1.58*	4.42*