Brandon Decker

P Hudson Valley Renegades

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	25	17	85	3.61	2.84	24.3%	10.8%	—	K 18.3% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.79
2026	24	A+NYY	34	3	51	2.82	3.20	26.6%	10.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.17
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYY	67	0	70	5.23	5.23	18.2%	14.1%	-0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBNYY	31	0	33	5.12	5.12	18.9%	13.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBNYY	45	0	47	5.08	5.09	19.2%	13.4%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Stephen Johnson (age 25) · Nick Hull (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%18.2%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%4.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	85	379	92	41	3	68%	3.4	18.3%	12.6%	5.6%	1.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	85	379	92	41	3	68%	3.4	18.3%	12.6%	5.6%	1.2%	3.61	3.79	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	85	379	92	41	3	68%	3.4	24.3%	10.8%	13.5%	0.8%	3.61	2.84	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	3	51	218	58	23	4	9%	1.5	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	2.3%	2.82	4.17	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	3	51	218	58	23	4	9%	1.5	20.5%	12.1%	8.4%	2.3%	2.82	4.17	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	34	3	51	218	58	23	4	9%	1.5	26.6%	10.6%	16.1%	1.8%	2.82	3.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYY	67	0	70	296	54	42	8	0%	1.0	18.2%	14.1%	4.0%	2.7%	5.23	5.23	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYY	73	0	76	322	61	44	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	13.6%	5.3%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYY	72	0	75	317	61	42	9	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.4%	5.9%	2.8%	5.08	5.09	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYY	69	0	73	307	59	41	9	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.9%	5.10	5.14	-0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYY	66	0	70	293	56	39	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.4%	5.8%	3.1%	5.18	5.25	-0.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYY	62	0	65	276	52	38	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.7%	5.1%	3.3%	5.33	5.43	-0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYY	31	0	33	139	26	19	4	0%	1.1	18.9%	13.6%	5.3%	2.7%	5.12	5.12	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYY	45	0	47	198	38	26	6	0%	1.0	19.2%	13.4%	5.9%	2.8%	5.08	5.09	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYY	52	0	55	232	45	31	7	0%	1.1	19.3%	13.3%	6.0%	2.9%	5.10	5.14	-0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYY	54	0	57	241	46	32	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	13.4%	5.8%	3.1%	5.18	5.25	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYY	53	0	56	236	44	32	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.7%	5.1%	3.3%	5.33	5.43	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	0	247	1044	199	141	31	0%	1.0	19.1%	13.5%	5.6%	3.0%	5.17	4.84	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	114	25	0%	1.0	19.1%	13.5%	5.6%	3.0%	5.17	4.84	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		59	20	136	597	114	74	9	34%	2.3	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	1.6%	3.32	3.93	-2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	29	200	880	168	110	14	34%	2.3	19.1%	12.5%	6.6%	1.6%	3.32	3.93	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Decker (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	18.2%	14.1%	2.7%	—	5.12	19.1%	5.7%	224	-0.11	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	88
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	85
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	83
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	83
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Jimmy Joyce R 2024 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	17.8%	14.2%	1.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	259	82
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	81
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	81
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	81
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	80
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	80
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	80
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	80
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	80
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	80
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.49	14.0%	6.3%	162	+0.26	3.81	291	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	71	18.9%	13.6%	1.13	5.17
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*