Dominic Fritton — OGILVIE

Dominic Fritton P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%22.4%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	113	502	142	54	14	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	113	502	142	54	14	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TB	20	20	89	386	111	42	8	100%	4.5	28.8%	10.9%	17.9%	2.1%	4.74	3.19	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TB	5	5	24	116	31	12	6	100%	4.8	26.7%	10.3%	16.4%	5.2%	7.88	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	114	480	110	50	14	100%	5.7	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.57	4.51	+0.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	115	486	113	47	15	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.0%	4.45	4.39	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	115	486	114	47	15	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	114	479	112	46	15	100%	6.0	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.0%	4.40	4.40	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	110	465	108	45	15	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	3.1%	4.45	4.48	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	105	444	102	44	15	100%	5.8	22.9%	10.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.55	4.61	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	99	417	94	43	15	100%	6.2	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	92	389	86	41	14	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.7%	4.88	4.99	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	49	207	47	21	6	100%	5.4	22.9%	10.3%	12.6%	3.1%	4.62	4.56	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	76	321	75	31	10	100%	5.8	23.2%	9.7%	13.5%	3.1%	4.50	4.44	+0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	90	37	12	100%	6.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.45	4.41	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	97	410	95	39	13	100%	6.1	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.1%	4.45	4.45	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	98	414	96	40	13	100%	6.1	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	3.2%	4.50	4.53	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	96	405	93	40	14	100%	6.0	22.9%	10.0%	13.0%	3.4%	4.60	4.66	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	91	384	87	40	14	100%	6.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.6%	4.76	4.85	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	86	363	81	39	14	100%	6.1	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.8%	4.94	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		115	115	683	2885	663	287	96	100%	5.9	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.60	4.24	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	194	84	28	100%	6.0	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	3.3%	4.60	4.24	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		25	25	113	502	106	63	18	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	44	200	886	187	112	32	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominic Fritton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	22.4%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.42	23.2%	13.3%	344	-0.28	—	—	—
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	82
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	81
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	80
Michel Gelabert L 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	18.7%	12.1%	2.4%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	107	78
Brent Headrick L 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP	4.36	22.9%	14.0%	2.6%	.383	4.58	23.7%	16.7%	227	+0.22	2.21	409	77
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	77
Brent Killam L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP	4.29	29.1%	14.5%	3.3%	.284	6.64	18.4%	9.6%	80	+2.35	4.29	121	76
Samy Natera Jr. L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	22.9%	13.3%	4.2%	.294	3.29	30.4%	16.9%	124	-1.85	1.94	208	76
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	76
Russell Smith L 2022 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	16.0%	10.4%	3.8%	.272	4.64	21.2%	7.8%	107	-0.50	4.00	175	75
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	74
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	74
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	73
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	72
Ryan Webb L 2022 · 3.92 FIP	23	SP	3.92	22.0%	15.4%	1.3%	.398	3.71	19.6%	9.4%	345	-0.21	3.26	448	72
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	72
Brandon Knarr L 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	22.6%	13.6%	3.5%	.299	4.15	19.9%	10.8%	158	-0.71	4.08	256	71
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	70
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	70
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	98	23.0%	10.0%	1.23	4.54
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45