Dominic Fritton

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#654ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	113	5.40	3.63	28.3%	10.8%	—	K 21.1% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.87
2027PROJ	24	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.98	4.98	22.2%	12.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTB	7	7	42	4.78	4.72	22.8%	11.6%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTB	11	11	66	4.68	4.65	23.0%	11.3%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.2, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsShane Drohan (age 24) · Joe Whitman (age 22) · Christian MacLeod (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%22.2%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP96

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	502	142	54	14	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	113	502	142	54	14	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	113	502	142	54	14	100%	4.5	28.3%	10.8%	17.5%	2.8%	5.40	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	12.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.98	4.98	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	98	415	95	48	13	100%	5.8	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.77	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	100	420	97	47	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.73	4.70	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	95	400	92	45	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.71	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	90	379	86	43	12	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.75	4.79	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	83	351	79	40	12	100%	5.9	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.85	4.92	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	75	318	71	37	12	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.8%	10.5%	3.6%	5.00	5.10	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	42	177	40	21	5	100%	6.0	22.8%	11.6%	11.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.72	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	66	279	64	31	9	100%	6.0	23.0%	11.3%	11.8%	3.1%	4.68	4.65	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	73	308	71	34	10	100%	6.1	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	75	317	72	36	10	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	3.2%	4.70	4.74	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	73	308	70	35	10	100%	6.1	22.6%	11.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.80	4.87	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	68	287	64	34	10	100%	6.2	22.2%	11.8%	10.5%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	397	1676	381	191	54	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	3.2%	4.76	4.40	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	192	96	27	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	3.2%	4.76	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		25	25	113	502	106	63	18	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	44	200	886	187	112	32	100%	4.5	21.1%	12.6%	8.5%	3.6%	5.40	4.87	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 89 IPFIP 3.19 → 4.41 (+1.22)K% 28.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.76%	—	×0.740	21.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.88%	—	×1.180	12.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.19 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 24 IPFIP 4.99 → 6.42 (+1.43)K% 26.7% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.72%	—	×0.770	20.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×1.150	11.90%
HR / BF /BF	5.17%	÷1.000	×1.250	6.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.99 → 6.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dominic Fritton (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.73	22.9%	11.6%	292	-0.25	—	—	—
Shane Drohan L 2023 · 5.13 FIP	24	SP	5.13	19.8%	12.1%	4.0%	.308	3.44	25.0%	16.1%	197	-1.69	2.79	538	83
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	82
Christian MacLeod L 2024 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP	4.77	21.5%	13.6%	3.2%	.269	4.50	18.0%	3.0%	128	-0.27	3.88	280	82
Dylan Carmouche L 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	19.0%	11.6%	2.5%	.332	5.21	16.7%	6.8%	116	+0.86	4.35	239	82
Tate Kuehner L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	20.5%	13.9%	1.7%	.275	3.85	20.3%	7.9%	164	-0.23	3.83	268	82
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	81
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	81
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	80
Scott Moss L 2019 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	23.7%	13.9%	2.0%	.291	4.14	26.3%	10.1%	20	+0.20	3.83	457	80
Tommy Henry L 2021 · 5.25 FIP	24	SP	5.25	22.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.327	4.52	18.7%	9.1%	417	-0.73	4.36	676	80
Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP	5.09	17.2%	12.3%	3.4%	.287	6.36	14.3%	-6.0%	32	+1.27	5.09	136	79
Nick Bierbrodt L 2001 · 5.15 FIP	23	SP	5.15	18.8%	9.8%	4.4%	.318	6.19	12.8%	-1.6%	60	+1.04	5.15	145	79
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	79
Erik Bedard L 2004 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP	4.01	19.1%	11.1%	2.1%	.317	3.28	23.8%	15.5%	520	-0.73	2.96	1,317	79
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	79
Bryan Sammons L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	24	SP	4.28	21.1%	11.0%	2.9%	.287	6.30	18.5%	6.7%	158	+2.02	3.58	688	78
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	78
Keegan Akin L 2019 · 4.13 FIP	24	SP	4.13	22.9%	12.7%	2.5%	.329	3.98	22.3%	14.5%	202	-0.15	2.62	743	78
Adam Scott L 2019 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP	4.17	20.7%	8.2%	3.3%	.318	4.94	21.9%	9.2%	136	+0.77	4.17	315	78
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	91	22.7%	11.6%	1.27	4.83
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64