Peyton Olejnik — OGILVIE

Peyton Olejnik P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'11" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 116

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%18.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 138 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$18M	+$14M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	21	A	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.05	—
2025	22	A	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.5%	4.20	4.16	—
2025	22	A	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	1.2%	4.20	3.26	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	15	15	73	329	79	28	3	100%	4.9	18.5%	9.8%	8.7%	1.1%	4.30	3.40	+1.2
ROS	23	MLB	LAA	12	12	65	274	50	37	7	100%	5.4	18.1%	13.6%	4.5%	2.6%	5.12	5.12	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.1%	13.6%	4.5%	2.6%	5.09	5.09	—
2026 TOT	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	138	603	129	65	10	—	—	21.3%	10.8%	10.5%	1.7%	4.68	4.21	+1.9
2026 FULL	23	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	18.1%	13.6%	4.5%	2.6%	5.09	4.72	-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	LAA	27	27	152	643	127	79	17	100%	5.6	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	2.6%	4.91	4.82	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	LAA	26	26	154	651	134	75	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.5%	9.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.65	+1.4
2029	26	MLB	LAA	26	26	154	651	138	73	17	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.7%	4.63	4.59	+1.5
2030	27	MLB	LAA	25	25	152	642	136	72	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.7%	4.62	4.61	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	LAA	25	25	147	622	131	71	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.67	4.70	+1.2
2032	29	MLB	LAA	23	23	141	594	123	69	18	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	3.0%	4.77	4.83	+0.9
2033	30	MLB	LAA	22	22	132	559	114	66	18	100%	6.0	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	3.2%	4.91	5.01	+0.6
2034	31	MLB	LAA	21	21	124	521	104	64	18	100%	5.9	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	3.4%	5.09	5.21	+0.3
2035	32	MLB	LAA	19	19	114	482	94	61	18	100%	6.0	19.6%	12.6%	6.9%	3.7%	5.30	5.44	-0.1
2027	24	MLB	LAA	12	12	66	279	55	34	7	100%	5.5	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	2.6%	4.88	4.79	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	LAA	17	17	102	431	89	49	11	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.5%	9.2%	2.6%	4.70	4.62	+0.9
2029	26	MLB	LAA	20	20	122	515	109	58	14	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.6%	4.60	4.56	+1.2
2030	27	MLB	LAA	22	22	130	549	116	62	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	2.7%	4.59	4.58	+1.2
2031	28	MLB	LAA	22	22	131	553	116	63	15	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.4%	9.6%	2.8%	4.64	4.67	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	LAA	21	21	128	540	112	63	16	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.6%	9.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.80	+0.9
2033	30	MLB	LAA	20	20	122	515	105	61	16	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.9%	8.5%	3.1%	4.88	4.98	+0.6
2034	31	MLB	LAA	19	19	115	486	97	59	16	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	3.3%	5.06	5.18	+0.3
2035	32	MLB	LAA	18	18	107	452	88	57	16	100%	5.9	19.6%	12.6%	6.9%	3.6%	5.26	5.40	-0.0
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			172	172	1023	4321	888	506	127	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.46	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	174	99	25	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.81	4.46	+2.2
Career	—			44	44	208	916	168	110	12	100%	4.7	18.3%	12.0%	6.4%	1.3%	4.19	3.80	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—			42	42	200	879	161	105	12	100%	4.7	18.3%	12.0%	6.4%	1.3%	4.19	3.80	+3.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Olejnik (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	18.1%	13.6%	2.6%	—	4.69	20.5%	8.8%	461	-0.43	—	—	—
Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	18.5%	13.7%	2.5%	.295	3.68	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.96	3.30	542	90
Tony Dibrell R 2026 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.79	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.20	4.21	347	88
Keyvius Sampson R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.66	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.55	4.11	316	87
Carlos Pimentel R 2028 · 4.56 FIP	25	SP	4.56	17.1%	11.6%	2.6%	.266	4.17	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.39	4.14	301	86
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	23	SP	5.09	18.4%	11.6%	3.8%	.280	4.70	16.1%	3.0%	202	-0.39	4.44	326	86
Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.3%	10.7%	2.6%	.315	3.90	18.1%	9.4%	296	-0.34	3.74	459	85
Tyler Woessner R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.57	18.0%	3.0%	76	+1.50	4.07	197	85
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2027 · 4.98 FIP	24	SP	4.98	14.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.299	5.07	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.09	4.27	270	85
Adam Hill R 2025 · 4.96 FIP	22	SP	4.96	15.6%	12.6%	2.9%	.297	6.36	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.40	4.96	213	85
Jeff Thompson R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	23	SP	4.57	15.2%	10.9%	2.5%	.306	4.28	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.29	3.46	321	85
Will Schomberg R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP	5.00	21.4%	15.6%	3.2%	.266	3.84	23.3%	11.7%	90	-1.16	3.84	206	84
Chris Anderson R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	23	SP	4.63	14.4%	11.2%	2.4%	.288	5.43	12.5%	-3.1%	77	+0.80	4.63	204	83
Chris Ellis R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	16.8%	14.5%	0.9%	.278	4.19	18.7%	9.7%	343	+0.19	3.85	780	83
Reid Anderson R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP	4.38	15.4%	13.5%	1.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	332	83
Miller Díaz R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	23	SP	4.25	14.4%	12.0%	1.5%	.302	4.09	17.8%	5.8%	100	-0.16	4.09	236	83
Wil Crowe R 2026 · 4.68 FIP	23	SP	4.68	15.0%	10.9%	2.7%	.278	4.61	18.9%	9.7%	266	-0.07	3.91	518	82
Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	16.0%	13.9%	1.7%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	115	82
Linder Castro R 2027 · 4.52 FIP	24	SP	4.52	15.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.14	4.27	279	82
Alex Royalty R 2025 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	14.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.302	4.74	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.40	4.34	151	82
Jaime Schultz R 2027 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP	4.56	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.80	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.76	2.14	391	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10	142	20.3%	11.9%	1.13	4.86
Kyle Gibson ('24)	10	164	19.6%	8.3%	1.14	4.46
Chad Kuhl ('24)	8	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Wade Miley ('23)	8	136	18.2%	8.5%	1.07	4.20
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	7	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Julio Teheran ('23)	7	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	9	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36