Peyton Olejnik
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
+0.9
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'11" / 210 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.9 · 2029
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%9.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.84 | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 25 | 25 | 129 | 562 | 130 | 63 | 7 | 17.1% | 13.2% | 1.6% | 4.20 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 105 | 56 | 13 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 124 | 523 | 110 | 59 | 14 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.44 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAA | 25 | 25 | 139 | 587 | 126 | 59 | 16 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 28 | 28 | 153 | 645 | 141 | 61 | 17 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 29 | 160 | 674 | 149 | 63 | 18 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +1.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 30 | 30 | 162 | 686 | 151 | 64 | 19 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +1.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 29 | 162 | 684 | 151 | 64 | 19 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.31 | +1.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 29 | 29 | 158 | 669 | 147 | 63 | 19 | 21.9% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.36 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 28 | 28 | 154 | 649 | 141 | 62 | 18 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.42 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 134 | 61 | 18 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 26 | 26 | 142 | 601 | 127 | 59 | 18 | 21.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 25 | 25 | 136 | 574 | 120 | 58 | 18 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 23 | 23 | 129 | 546 | 112 | 56 | 17 | 20.5% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 22 | 22 | 122 | 514 | 104 | 54 | 17 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 95 | 52 | 16 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 139 | 603 | 112 | 80 | 10 | 18.6% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 4.22 | 4.10 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 870 | 162 | 115 | 14 | 18.6% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 4.22 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Peyton Olejnik (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.6% | — | 4.32 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 451 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Roman Angelo R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 93 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.17 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .315 | 4.02 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 296 | -0.15 | 3.77 | 420 | 93 |
| Dinelson Lamet R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 13.1% | 293 | -0.59 | 1.92 | 778 | 91 |
| Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.80 | 18.4% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.97 | 16.1% | 3.0% | 202 | +0.17 | 4.68 | 326 | 90 |
| Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .326 | 3.92 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 38 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 139 | 90 |
| Brody Hopkins R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 1.9% | .275 | 5.49 | 23.1% | 0.8% | 18 | +1.63 | 3.46 | 249 | 90 |
| Austin Love R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 89 |
| Nick Nastrini R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.05 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .288 | 6.14 | 19.4% | 1.6% | 168 | +2.09 | 4.05 | 412 | 89 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2025 · 4.55 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.55 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 2.7% | .309 | 3.87 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 238 | -0.68 | 2.16 | 615 | 89 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 89 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.72 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .285 | 5.74 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 160 | +2.02 | 3.72 | 256 | 89 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 89 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 89 |
| Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 17.9% | 10.9% | 2.5% | .285 | 4.64 | 14.8% | 4.8% | 153 | +0.30 | 3.44 | 393 | 89 |
| Jimmy Endersby R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.24 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 2.0% | .310 | 5.78 | 16.4% | 3.7% | 225 | +1.54 | 2.86 | 357 | 88 |
| Brandon Bielak R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.36 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .267 | 4.04 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 200 | -0.32 | 3.21 | 670 | 88 |
| Nolan DeVos R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.17 | 21.1% | 14.0% | 2.0% | .302 | 5.82 | 12.3% | -1.5% | 12 | +1.65 | 4.17 | 110 | 88 |
| Josh Grosz R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.75 | 19.4% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 243 | 88 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.78 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.3% | .266 | 5.31 | 14.0% | 1.0% | 106 | +0.53 | 3.85 | 291 | 87 |
| Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.6% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .257 | 4.02 | 10.6% | 4.0% | 101 | -0.21 | 4.02 | 199 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.5 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +1.4 | $14M | +$10M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.2 | $13M | +$8M |
| Totals | $14M | $92M | +$77M | ||