Peyton Olejnik — OGILVIE

Peyton Olejnik P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 23 RHP 6'11" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%18.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%4.1%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF5050

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.05	—
2025	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.6%	4.20	4.19	—
2025	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.6%	4.20	4.19	—
2025	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	1.2%	4.20	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.47	4.44	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.47	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	LAA	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.9	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	1.9%	4.47	3.52	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	LAA	2	2	13	55	10	8	1	100%	6.6	18.1%	14.1%	4.1%	2.7%	5.18	5.18	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	120	532	121	59	10	—	—	22.7%	11.0%	11.7%	2.0%	4.55	4.52	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAA	27	27	152	643	127	81	17	100%	5.6	19.7%	12.6%	7.1%	2.7%	4.96	4.87	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	154	651	134	76	17	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.7%	8.9%	2.7%	4.77	4.68	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	26	26	154	651	138	75	17	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.5%	9.7%	2.7%	4.67	4.62	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	152	642	136	73	18	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.4%	9.7%	2.7%	4.65	4.65	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	25	25	147	622	131	72	18	100%	5.9	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	2.8%	4.70	4.73	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	23	23	141	594	123	70	18	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	3.0%	4.80	4.86	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	22	22	132	559	114	68	18	100%	6.0	20.4%	12.1%	8.3%	3.2%	4.95	5.04	-0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	LAA	21	21	124	521	104	65	18	100%	5.9	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	3.4%	5.13	5.24	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	66	279	55	35	8	100%	5.5	19.7%	12.6%	7.1%	2.7%	4.99	4.90	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	17	17	102	431	89	50	12	100%	6.0	20.6%	11.7%	8.9%	2.7%	4.80	4.71	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	122	515	109	59	14	100%	6.1	21.1%	11.5%	9.7%	2.7%	4.70	4.65	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	22	22	130	549	116	63	15	100%	5.9	21.1%	11.4%	9.7%	2.8%	4.68	4.68	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	22	22	131	553	116	64	16	100%	6.0	21.0%	11.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.73	4.76	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	21	21	128	540	112	64	16	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.8%	9.0%	3.1%	4.83	4.89	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	20	20	122	515	105	62	17	100%	6.1	20.4%	12.1%	8.3%	3.3%	4.99	5.08	-0.2
2034	31	MLB CTX	LAA	19	19	115	486	97	61	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%	3.5%	5.17	5.28	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	154	916	3869	799	458	115	100%	5.9	20.7%	11.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.49	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	100	25	100%	6.0	20.7%	11.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.85	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		51	51	242	1064	193	136	20	100%	4.7	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	1.9%	4.28	4.22	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	881	159	113	17	100%	4.7	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	1.9%	4.28	4.22	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Olejnik (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	18.1%	14.1%	2.7%	—	4.72	20.5%	8.6%	461	-0.46	—	—	—
Austin Brice R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	23	SP	4.61	18.5%	13.7%	2.4%	.295	3.72	19.0%	12.0%	222	-0.89	3.42	542	90
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	87
Jamison Hill R 2022 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP	4.83	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	5.02	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.19	4.72	326	86
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	86
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	85
Adam Hill R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SP	5.00	15.6%	12.6%	3.0%	.297	6.06	19.6%	8.9%	91	+1.06	5.00	213	85
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	85
Tyler Woessner R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP	4.10	16.4%	11.8%	1.6%	.307	5.29	17.6%	4.0%	76	+1.19	4.10	197	85
Jeff Thompson R 2015 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP	4.51	15.2%	10.9%	2.4%	.306	4.40	15.8%	1.0%	202	-0.11	3.67	321	84
Trent Baker R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	19.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.315	4.07	17.9%	9.5%	296	+0.02	3.88	490	84
Chris Ellis R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	23	SP	4.05	16.8%	14.5%	1.0%	.278	4.22	18.7%	9.7%	343	+0.17	3.84	780	84
Reid Anderson R 2019 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP	4.49	15.4%	13.5%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	332	83
Chris Anderson R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SP	4.68	14.4%	11.2%	2.5%	.288	5.43	12.5%	-3.1%	77	+0.75	4.68	204	83
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	82
Miller Díaz R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP	4.22	14.4%	12.0%	1.5%	.302	4.17	17.8%	5.8%	100	-0.05	4.09	236	82
Edgar Gonzalez R 2019 · 4.36 FIP	22	SP	4.36	16.0%	13.9%	1.6%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	115	82
Wil Crowe R 2018 · 4.64 FIP	23	SP	4.64	15.0%	10.9%	2.6%	.278	4.72	18.9%	9.7%	266	+0.08	3.92	518	81
Carlos Hernandez R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	17.4%	15.7%	1.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	123	81
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	81
Alex Royalty R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	14.9%	11.6%	1.8%	.302	4.50	17.7%	8.6%	40	+0.17	4.33	151	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	145	20.3%	12.1%	1.10	4.86
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67