Peyton Olejnik

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 24 RHP 6'11" / 210 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#814ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ASEA	25	25	129	4.20	3.26	23.1%	11.2%	—	K 17.1% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.19
2026	23	A+LAA	22	22	107	4.47	3.55	23.3%	10.7%	—	K 17.9% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.44
2027PROJ	24	MLBLAA	1	1	1	5.11	5.11	18.4%	13.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	25	MLBLAA	6	6	36	4.95	4.88	19.7%	12.3%	0.2
2029PROJ51% MLB	26	MLBLAA	9	9	54	4.84	4.79	20.5%	11.9%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Arb-2$0.7M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 91%

CompsCarlos Pimentel (age 25) · Keyvius Sampson (age 24) · Ian Mejia (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%18.4%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%4.9%

Proj IP149

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	0.90	—
2024	21	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	4	4	6	25	11	3	0	100%	1.6	44.0%	12.0%	32.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.05	—
2025	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.6%	4.20	4.19	—
2025	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	1.6%	4.20	4.19	—
2025	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	25	25	129	562	130	63	7	100%	5.1	23.1%	11.2%	11.9%	1.2%	4.20	3.26	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.47	4.44	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	17.9%	12.3%	5.6%	2.4%	4.47	4.44	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	Tri-City Dust Devils	22	22	107	477	111	51	9	100%	4.8	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	1.9%	4.47	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAA	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	18.4%	13.6%	4.9%	2.7%	5.11	5.11	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAA	20	20	116	488	96	60	13	100%	5.8	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	2.7%	4.92	4.85	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	105	442	90	53	12	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.9%	8.5%	2.7%	4.81	4.76	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	99	417	86	49	12	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.77	4.77	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	93	394	80	47	11	100%	5.8	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	2.9%	4.81	4.84	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAA	14	14	86	365	74	44	11	100%	6.2	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.0%	4.91	4.97	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAA	13	13	78	331	66	41	11	100%	6.0	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	3.2%	5.05	5.15	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	36	152	30	19	4	100%	6.0	19.7%	12.3%	7.4%	2.8%	4.95	4.88	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAA	9	9	54	228	47	27	6	100%	6.0	20.5%	11.9%	8.5%	2.8%	4.84	4.79	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	54	31	7	100%	6.2	20.5%	11.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.80	4.80	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	67	283	58	33	8	100%	6.1	20.4%	11.8%	8.6%	3.0%	4.84	4.87	+0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	67	283	57	34	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.1%	4.94	5.00	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	54	33	9	100%	5.8	19.9%	12.4%	7.5%	3.3%	5.09	5.19	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	58	349	1472	298	177	44	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.55	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	102	25	100%	6.0	20.2%	12.0%	8.2%	3.0%	4.91	4.55	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		51	51	242	1064	193	136	20	100%	4.7	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	1.9%	4.28	4.22	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	42	200	881	159	113	17	100%	4.7	18.1%	12.8%	5.3%	1.9%	4.28	4.22	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 107 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.44 (+0.91)K% 23.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.27%	—	×0.770	17.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.69%	—	×1.150	12.30%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.36%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AInland Empire 66ers · 129 IPFIP 3.25 → 4.19 (+0.94)K% 23.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.13%	—	×0.740	17.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.21%	—	×1.180	13.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.036	×1.300	1.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.25 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 6 IPFIP 0.90 → 2.14 (+1.24)K% 44.0% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.740	32.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.180	14.16%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.882	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.90 → 2.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Peyton Olejnik (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.80	20.2%	8.2%	319	-0.31	—	—	—
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	88
Keyvius Sampson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	24	SP	4.10	16.9%	12.2%	1.6%	.314	4.55	21.2%	7.9%	181	+0.45	4.10	316	88
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	87
Tony Dibrell R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.0%	11.7%	2.5%	.302	5.67	20.5%	6.2%	58	+1.05	4.18	347	85
Shaddon Peavyhouse R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	24	SP	4.78	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.299	5.21	14.8%	2.5%	137	+0.43	4.43	270	85
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	85
Jesse Foppert R 2003 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.2%	13.0%	3.2%	.274	7.32	11.3%	-13.2%	10	+2.52	4.80	121	84
Tyler Herb R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	17.2%	10.1%	2.5%	.298	4.67	15.7%	7.0%	378	+0.38	3.79	867	84
Jaime Schultz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	23.2%	16.9%	2.3%	.297	3.87	27.5%	14.7%	209	-0.67	2.19	391	82
Blayne Weller R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP	4.15	16.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.326	5.65	17.6%	8.4%	103	+1.50	4.15	254	82
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP	4.41	17.7%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.25	21.0%	10.6%	135	+0.84	1.49	373	82
Linder Castro R 2015 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP	4.64	15.3%	11.5%	2.5%	.327	4.38	16.4%	6.5%	111	-0.26	4.23	279	82
Jamison Hill R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.2%	15.6%	1.8%	.248	5.44	16.0%	6.4%	84	+0.72	4.72	326	82
Ty Cummings R 2024 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	19.0%	10.5%	2.8%	.329	5.36	14.4%	6.0%	178	+1.02	4.34	295	81
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	81
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	81
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	81
Carter Spivey R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	24	SP	4.02	14.2%	10.6%	1.4%	.264	6.14	14.9%	3.5%	30	+2.12	4.02	155	80
Josh Grosz R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	21	SP	4.83	19.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.271	5.07	21.5%	8.5%	183	+0.24	4.75	301	80
Trace Bright R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	23	SP	4.53	19.9%	13.5%	2.5%	.314	5.03	19.2%	6.3%	210	+0.50	4.26	422	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	104	19.8%	12.4%	1.10	4.92
Charlie Puleo ('81-'89, 1 WAR*)	3.2	90	18.5%*	11.5%*	1.22*	4.73*
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64
Gerry Arrigo ('61-'70, 1 WAR*)	3.1	103	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.17*	4.98*
Steve Mura ('78-'85, 1 WAR*)	3.2	127	19.2%*	10.8%*	1.06*	4.84*
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64