Alvaro Pineda

P DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	19	ROKDSL Royals Bl…	11	6	32	5.01	3.72	17.8%	7.5%	—	K 12.1% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.02
2024	20	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	12	9	39	4.35	3.30	16.6%	10.1%	—	K 11.3% · BB 12.6% · FIP 4.09
2027PROJ	23	MLBKC	4	4	23	4.57	4.57	22.2%	10.4%	0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBKC	2	2	10	4.46	4.41	22.8%	9.8%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsCasey Legumina (age 24) · Ray Gaither (age 24) · Hunter Gregory (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%22.2%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Stewart	11	6	25	114	14	5	2	55%	2.3	8.4%	5.5%	2.9%	2.1%	6.39	4.25	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Stewart	11	6	25	114	14	5	2	55%	2.3	12.3%	4.4%	7.9%	1.8%	6.39	3.61	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	6	32	146	26	11	3	55%	2.9	12.1%	9.4%	2.7%	3.2%	5.01	5.02	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	11	6	32	146	26	11	3	55%	2.9	17.8%	7.5%	10.3%	2.1%	5.01	3.72	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	9	39	169	28	17	1	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.6%	-1.3%	0.6%	4.35	4.09	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	9	39	169	28	17	1	75%	3.3	11.3%	12.6%	-1.3%	0.6%	4.35	4.09	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	9	39	169	28	17	1	75%	3.3	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	0.6%	4.35	3.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	KC	4	4	23	97	22	10	3	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.4%	11.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	4	4	24	101	23	10	3	100%	6.0	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.46	4.41	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.46	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	43	10	4	1	100%	5.1	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.46	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	195	78	19	100%	5.6	22.8%	9.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.46	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		34	21	97	429	46	41	8	62%	2.9	10.8%	9.6%	1.2%	1.9%	5.10	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	43	200	885	95	85	17	62%	2.9	10.8%	9.6%	1.2%	1.9%	5.10	4.45	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alvaro Pineda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.2%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.41	22.8%	13.1%	24	-0.16	—	—	—
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	87
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	85
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	85
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	81
Nathanael Santiago R 2015 · 3.44 FIP	25	SP-	3.44	20.3%	11.4%	1.1%	.286	3.58	23.2%	10.9%	71	+0.14	2.49	138	80
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	80
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	80
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	80
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.31	22.9%	10.2%	109	+0.88	3.43	142	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	78
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	78
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	78
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	77
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	77
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77