Ovis Portes — OGILVIE

Ovis Portes P Dayton Dragons

Age 21 RHP 6'4" / 167 lbs A+ peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156148vR 140

ERA6.48

FIP6.48

K%17.1%

BB%22.7%

K-BB%-5.6%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	11	1	22	93	28	11	0	9%	2.0	20.5%	14.8%	5.7%	0.0%	1.21	3.24	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	11	1	22	93	28	11	0	9%	2.0	30.1%	11.8%	18.3%	0.0%	1.21	2.07	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	4	4	4	24	9	6	0	100%	1.1	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	12.46	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	4	4	4	24	9	6	0	100%	1.1	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	12.46	3.10	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	4	4	4	24	9	6	0	100%	1.1	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	12.46	3.10	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	39	176	50	29	0	47%	2.6	19.4%	22.7%	-3.3%	0.0%	3.69	4.34	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	39	176	50	29	0	47%	2.6	19.4%	22.7%	-3.3%	0.0%	3.69	4.34	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	39	176	50	29	0	47%	2.6	28.4%	16.5%	11.9%	0.0%	3.69	2.77	—
2025	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	15	61	287	67	49	6	65%	2.7	17.3%	20.1%	-2.9%	2.6%	5.87	5.64	—
2025	20	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	23	15	61	287	67	49	6	65%	2.7	17.3%	20.1%	-2.9%	2.6%	5.87	5.64	—
2025	20	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	23	15	61	287	67	49	6	65%	2.7	23.3%	17.1%	6.3%	2.1%	5.87	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	18	70	335	92	44	8	90%	3.5	20.8%	15.2%	5.7%	3.0%	7.20	4.92	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	20	18	70	335	92	44	8	90%	3.5	20.8%	15.2%	5.7%	3.0%	7.20	4.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	CIN	5	5	23	95	34	8	2	100%	4.5	35.8%	8.4%	27.4%	2.1%	3.18	2.30	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	CIN	15	13	47	240	58	36	6	87%	3.2	24.2%	15.0%	9.2%	2.5%	9.13	4.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	72	304	57	58	9	100%	5.1	18.7%	19.2%	-0.5%	2.8%	6.03	5.87	-0.8
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	75	315	62	53	9	100%	5.3	19.8%	16.9%	2.9%	2.8%	5.65	5.47	-0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	77	323	66	50	9	100%	5.5	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.8%	5.37	5.21	-0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	328	69	47	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	14.4%	6.5%	2.8%	5.17	5.05	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	328	69	47	9	100%	6.0	21.1%	14.4%	6.8%	2.8%	5.08	5.03	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	76	323	68	47	9	100%	5.9	21.1%	14.5%	6.7%	2.8%	5.07	5.06	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	74	313	66	46	9	100%	6.2	21.0%	14.6%	6.4%	2.9%	5.12	5.15	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	71	299	62	44	9	100%	5.9	20.8%	14.8%	5.9%	3.1%	5.22	5.28	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	67	281	57	43	9	100%	6.1	20.4%	15.1%	5.3%	3.3%	5.36	5.46	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	36	152	28	29	4	100%	5.1	18.7%	19.2%	-0.5%	2.8%	6.03	5.87	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	55	232	46	39	6	100%	5.5	19.8%	16.9%	2.9%	2.8%	5.65	5.47	-0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	64	270	55	42	7	100%	5.8	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.8%	5.37	5.21	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	61	42	8	100%	5.8	20.9%	14.4%	6.5%	2.8%	5.17	5.05	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	63	43	8	100%	5.9	21.1%	14.4%	6.8%	2.8%	5.08	5.03	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	71	300	63	43	8	100%	5.9	21.1%	14.5%	6.7%	2.8%	5.07	5.06	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	61	43	8	100%	5.8	21.0%	14.6%	6.4%	2.9%	5.12	5.15	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	67	283	59	42	9	100%	6.1	20.8%	14.8%	5.9%	3.1%	5.22	5.28	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	63	266	54	40	9	100%	6.3	20.4%	15.1%	5.3%	3.3%	5.36	5.46	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		97	97	564	2380	491	362	68	100%	5.8	20.6%	15.2%	5.4%	2.9%	5.29	4.87	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	174	128	24	100%	5.8	20.6%	15.2%	5.4%	2.9%	5.29	4.87	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		73	45	197	915	182	168	18	62%	2.7	19.8%	18.4%	1.4%	1.9%	5.53	4.81	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	46	200	929	184	171	18	62%	2.7	19.8%	18.4%	1.4%	1.9%	5.53	4.81	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ovis Portes (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.48	17.1%	22.7%	2.9%	—	5.51	19.7%	2.6%	223	-0.97	—	—	—
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	88
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	86
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	86
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	82
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	81
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	81
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	80
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	80
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.16	333	79
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	78
Felix Cepeda R 2021 · 5.96 FIP	21	SP	5.96	17.0%	21.6%	2.8%	.276	4.78	17.6%	0.9%	144	-1.18	3.58	204	78
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	77
Kendeglys Virguez R 2023 · 5.44 FIP	19	SP-	5.44	14.4%	18.5%	2.2%	.342	4.27	23.2%	10.2%	81	-1.17	4.10	142	77
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	77
Bryan Sanchez R 2023 · 6.58 FIP	20	SP-	6.58	15.7%	19.3%	4.3%	.296	5.63	14.6%	-3.0%	65	-0.95	2.99	142	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	71	20.3%	15.9%	1.11	5.40
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77