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Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Red | 17 | 0 | 22 | 115 | 30 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.7% | 20.7% | -2.9% | 1.8% | 8.06 | 5.19 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL CLE Red | 17 | 0 | 22 | 115 | 30 | 19 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 16.5% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 8.06 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 7 | 39 | 189 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 64% | 3.5 | 14.4% | 18.5% | -4.1% | 1.7% | 7.68 | 5.19 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 11 | 7 | 39 | 189 | 40 | 28 | 4 | 64% | 3.5 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 7.68 | 4.55 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 54 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.57 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 54 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 32.0% | 8.9% | 23.1% | 2.4% | 3.57 | 2.83 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 7 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 15.8% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 2.21 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | ACL Guardians | 7 | 0 | 8 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.2% | 15.8% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 2.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | 22 | 0 | 25 | 111 | 37 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 4.74 | 3.26 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 91 | 45 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.9% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 115 | 491 | 128 | 58 | 12 | — | — | 26.0% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 2.5% | 4.62 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.9% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.21 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 96 | 43 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 91 | 0 | 96 | 404 | 100 | 41 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 103 | 41 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 92 | 0 | 97 | 409 | 103 | 40 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 91 | 0 | 95 | 403 | 102 | 40 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 88 | 0 | 92 | 391 | 98 | 39 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +1.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | CLE | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 48 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 10.8% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | CLE | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 70 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.9% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | CLE | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 84 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.22 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | CLE | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 91 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.20 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | CLE | 82 | 0 | 86 | 363 | 92 | 36 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 81 | 0 | 85 | 359 | 90 | 36 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 427 | 0 | 448 | 1893 | 474 | 191 | 56 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.89 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 85 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.0% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 7 | 134 | 622 | 127 | 98 | 13 | 9% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 15.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 5.86 | 4.50 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 123 | 10 | 200 | 931 | 190 | 146 | 19 | 9% | 1.6 | 20.4% | 15.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 5.86 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kendeglys Virguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.9% | 11.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.30 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 286 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Alex Cook R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.93 | 26.1% | 10.8% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.69 | 22.1% | 13.7% | 83 | -0.24 | 3.04 | 149 | 87 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 86 |
| Shane Broyles R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.90 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 14.5% | 159 | -0.31 | 3.10 | 218 | 85 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.96 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 4.2% | .310 | 5.37 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.41 | 4.77 | 126 | 85 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2028 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 85 |
| Tyler Vogel R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.21 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 4.2% | .305 | 4.40 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 116 | -0.81 | 3.83 | 182 | 84 |
| Carlos Espinosa R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.44 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .331 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 103 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 247 | 84 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.21 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 139 | 84 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.50 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.98 | 2.65 | 304 | 84 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 84 |
| William Kempner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 84 |
| Chay Yeager R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.47 | 22.8% | 10.3% | 3.6% | .237 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 110 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2028 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 83 |
| Jacob Wallace R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.50 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 3.6% | .316 | 4.85 | 23.8% | 7.0% | 167 | +0.35 | 4.00 | 271 | 83 |
| Tanner Jacobson R 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 4.97 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.89 | 4.08 | 168 | 83 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 83 |
| Austin Smith R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .274 | 5.05 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.05 | 4.00 | 134 | 83 |
| Matt Keating R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.24 | 23.3% | 14.8% | 2.3% | .346 | 4.58 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 142 | +0.34 | 3.39 | 208 | 83 |
| Lucas Wepf R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.8% | .323 | 3.88 | 26.5% | 15.2% | 118 | +0.20 | 2.90 | 176 | 82 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.58 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.62 | 22.3% | 11.4% | 86 | +0.04 | 4.36 | 152 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 94 | 24.8% | 10.4% | 1.15 | 4.34 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |