Marc Church
P
Round Rock Express
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 189 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION15 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%23.0%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL+1.4 (49%)
CH (3%)
FB-2.3 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 19 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.8% | 8.3% | 23.5% | 4.6% | 4.28 | 3.99 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 19 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 49 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.4 | 43.0% | 7.0% | 36.0% | 3.5% | 4.28 | 2.30 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 78 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.6% | 7.6% | 21.9% | 6.2% | 4.22 | 4.98 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 78 | 14 | 11 | 0% | 1.3 | 37.9% | 6.8% | 31.1% | 5.3% | 4.22 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 2 | 62 | 268 | 79 | 38 | 7 | 5% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 3.63 | 4.46 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 2 | 62 | 268 | 79 | 38 | 7 | 5% | 1.4 | 29.5% | 14.2% | 15.3% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.86 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 1.4% | 4.05 | 2.94 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 3.44 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 0 | 12 | 67 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 7.50 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 13 | 0 | 12 | 67 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 7.50 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 16 | 0 | 15 | 78 | 20 | 11 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.7% | 16.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.28 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 75 | 329 | 78 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 23.6% | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 6 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.13 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 59 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 58 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 0 | 79 | 337 | 78 | 40 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.10 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 192 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 197 | 101 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 2 | 192 | 848 | 223 | 103 | 31 | 1% | 1.3 | 26.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 2 | 200 | 882 | 231 | 107 | 32 | 1% | 1.3 | 26.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Marc Church (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 23.3% | 12.4% | 118 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 84 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 84 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 83 |
| Logan Boyer R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.65 | 25.0% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .267 | 4.98 | 17.9% | 1.6% | 54 | +1.33 | 3.65 | 121 | 82 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.75 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .340 | 4.62 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.87 | 3.75 | 223 | 82 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 82 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 82 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 81 |
| Zac Leigh R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.72 | 28.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .282 | 4.81 | 20.3% | 2.9% | 127 | +1.09 | 3.72 | 197 | 81 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.95 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.0% | .323 | 4.34 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.39 | 3.95 | 142 | 81 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 81 |
| Brooks Kriske R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.52 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .245 | 5.01 | 28.6% | 16.5% | 41 | +1.49 | 3.00 | 246 | 81 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.42 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .150 | 5.65 | 21.4% | 5.1% | 124 | +1.23 | 3.88 | 205 | 80 |
| Hagen Danner R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.27 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 89 | +0.03 | 3.59 | 187 | 80 |
| José Cisnero R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.40 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .367 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 80 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 80 |
| Kelly Austin R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 80 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 59 | 23.2% | 11.0% | 1.12 | 4.49 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |