Marc Church — OGILVIE

Marc Church P Round Rock Express

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 189 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%22.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3545

K†5555

SL+1.4 (49%)

CH (3%)

FB-2.3 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	19	0	27	114	49	8	4	0%	1.4	31.8%	8.3%	23.5%	4.6%	4.28	3.98	—
2021	20	A RAW	Down East Wood Ducks	19	0	27	114	49	8	4	0%	1.4	43.0%	7.0%	36.0%	3.5%	4.28	2.30	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	49	206	78	14	11	0%	1.3	29.6%	7.6%	21.9%	6.3%	4.22	5.05	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	49	206	78	14	11	0%	1.3	37.9%	6.8%	31.1%	5.3%	4.22	3.69	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	62	268	79	38	7	5%	1.4	24.2%	13.5%	10.7%	2.9%	3.63	4.36	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	2	62	268	79	38	7	5%	1.4	24.2%	13.5%	10.7%	2.9%	3.63	4.36	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	2	62	268	79	38	7	5%	1.4	29.5%	14.2%	15.3%	2.6%	3.63	3.86	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	27	115	30	10	3	0%	1.3	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	1.3%	4.05	2.85	+0.5
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	27	115	30	10	3	0%	1.3	21.4%	6.8%	14.6%	1.3%	4.05	2.85	+0.5
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	27	115	30	10	3	0%	1.3	26.1%	8.7%	17.4%	2.6%	4.05	3.44	+0.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	0	12	67	15	15	1	0%	0.9	22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	1.5%	7.50	4.86	-0.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	0	12	67	15	15	1	0%	0.9	22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	1.5%	7.50	4.86	-0.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	0	12	67	15	15	1	0%	0.9	22.4%	22.4%	0.0%	1.5%	7.50	5.43	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	6	27	6	6	0	0%	0.9	22.2%	22.2%	0.0%	0.0%	3.18	4.16	+0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	31	0	33	161	42	22	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.0%	8.3%	2.2%	6.34	4.14	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	31	0	33	161	42	22	3	0%	1.1	21.3%	13.0%	8.3%	2.2%	6.34	4.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	ROK RAW	TEX	2	0	2	9	3	0	0	0%	1.1	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	TEX	29	0	30	152	39	22	3	0%	1.0	25.7%	14.5%	11.2%	2.0%	6.82	3.85	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	TEX	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.3%	11.8%	2.9%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	38	182	47	24	4	—	—	25.6%	13.3%	12.4%	2.0%	6.09	4.19	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TEX	57	0	60	251	57	26	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.44	4.43	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TEX	56	0	59	247	56	25	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.46	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	TEX	28	0	29	122	28	12	4	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.44	4.43	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TEX	37	0	39	165	37	17	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	0	74	314	71	35	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.07	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	853	193	95	22	0%	1.0	22.6%	11.2%	11.4%	2.7%	4.35	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		164	2	210	931	236	105	32	1%	1.3	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	2	200	888	225	100	31	1%	1.3	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.28	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marc Church (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	22.1%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.44	22.7%	12.5%	118	-0.04	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	84
Blake Goldsberry R 2022 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	23.6%	8.3%	2.3%	.257	5.26	23.6%	12.0%	44	+1.83	3.43	117	84
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	83
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	82
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	82
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	82
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	82
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	82
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	82
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	81
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	81
Dakota Donovan R 2022 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	21.9%	10.3%	1.6%	.291	3.65	18.9%	6.4%	50	+0.21	3.15	153	81
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	80
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	80
Will Vest R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	.282	3.65	20.9%	11.9%	124	-0.06	2.56	448	79
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	22.5%	10.2%	1.12	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58