Will Vest
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 31
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.8 · 2026
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9080vR 71
ERA3.08
FIP3.03
K%24.7%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%17.5%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p6427.5%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p550.307
SL+1.2 (29%)
FB+0.6 (60%)
SI (15%)
CH-0.6 (11%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 49 | 221 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 0.4% | 5.18 | 2.58 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 49 | 221 | 56 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.3% | 5.9% | 19.5% | 0.5% | 5.18 | 1.87 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 55 | 226 | 58 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 3.54 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 0 | 55 | 226 | 58 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.1% | 2.7% | 3.27 | 3.34 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 52 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 1.9% | 5.64 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 0 | 61 | 265 | 52 | 26 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 5.64 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 64 | 276 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 3.94 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 64 | 276 | 64 | 22 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 3.94 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 5 | 61 | 258 | 76 | 21 | 8 | 8% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 8.3% | 20.2% | 3.9% | 4.11 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 5 | 61 | 258 | 76 | 21 | 8 | 8% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 8.1% | 21.3% | 3.1% | 4.11 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 69 | 0 | 70 | 289 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 1.1% | 2.82 | 2.58 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 69 | 0 | 70 | 289 | 63 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 5.5% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 2.82 | 2.55 | +1.8 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 64 | 0 | 69 | 284 | 75 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 3.01 | 2.65 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 64 | 0 | 69 | 284 | 75 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 19.0% | 1.4% | 3.01 | 2.59 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 28 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 5.86 | 3.17 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | DET | 29 | 0 | 31 | 129 | 32 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 17.5% | 2.0% | 3.08 | 3.03 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | DET | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 32 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 17.5% | 1.9% | 3.04 | 2.99 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | DET | — | — | 58 | 248 | 60 | 19 | 5 | — | — | 24.2% | 7.8% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 4.40 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | DET | — | — | 57 | 242 | 60 | 19 | 4 | — | — | 24.8% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 1.9% | 4.45 | 3.04 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | DET | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 59 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 16.5% | 2.3% | 3.57 | 3.65 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | DET | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 2.5% | 3.79 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | DET | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | DET | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 16.5% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.60 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | DET | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 49 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 15.2% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 3.87 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | DET | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 4.17 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 470 | 6 | 491 | 2073 | 489 | 159 | 38 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.72 | 3.08 | +13.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 2 | 200 | 844 | 199 | 65 | 15 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.72 | 3.08 | +5.4 | ||
| Career | — | 402 | 7 | 456 | 1938 | 443 | 152 | 37 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 3.22 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 3 | 200 | 849 | 194 | 67 | 16 | 2% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 4.04 | 3.22 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Vest (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.32 | 25.6% | 6.8% | 2.1% | — | 3.92 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 159 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 75 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 74 |
| Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.66 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% | .325 | 3.46 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 58 | +0.80 | 2.02 | 102 | 74 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 74 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 72 |
| Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 71 |
| Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.21 | 22.1% | 5.2% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 333 | 71 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 71 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 71 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Carlos Torres R 2027 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 70 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2028 · 2.35 FIP | 33 | SU | 2.35 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 0.4% | .340 | 3.55 | 16.5% | 10.6% | 91 | +1.20 | 2.35 | 140 | 70 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 70 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.08 | 25.0% | 8.3% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.20 | 22.5% | 13.9% | 113 | +1.12 | 2.40 | 617 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 0.93 | 3.68 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Trevor Gott ('23) | 4 | 51 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 0.79 | 3.97 |
| Sam Hentges ('24) | 4 | 52 | 25.4% | 8.4% | 0.78 | 4.18 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Derek Law ('24) | 5 | 60 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 0.88 | 3.47 |