Will Vest — OGILVIE

Will Vest P Detroit Tigers

+0.6 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.1 · 2027

ERA3.20

FIP3.37

xFIP3.27

SIERA3.13

K%24.8%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%17.5%

IP62

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2027

K†6060

SL+1.2 (28%)

FB+0.6 (59%)

SI (14%)

CH-0.6 (13%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2018	23	A+	Lakeland Flying Tigers	30	0	49	221	56	13	1	18.9%	6.9%	0.5%	5.18	2.63	+1.3
2019	24	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	37	0	55	226	58	17	6	21.8%	8.5%	2.5%	3.27	3.71	+0.8
2021	26	MLB	Seattle Mariners	55	0	61	265	52	26	5	18.5%	10.0%	2.0%	5.64	3.88	+0.7
2022	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	60	2	64	276	64	22	6	23.2%	8.1%	2.3%	3.94	3.45	+1.1
2023	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	59	5	61	258	76	21	8	28.5%	8.3%	3.5%	4.11	3.67	+0.9
2024	29	MLB	Detroit Tigers	69	0	70	289	63	16	3	21.8%	5.5%	1.0%	2.82	2.53	+2.0
2025	30	MLB	Detroit Tigers	64	0	69	284	75	21	4	26.4%	7.4%	1.3%	3.01	2.54	+1.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	Detroit Tigers	8	0	7	29	9	3	0	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
ROS	31	MLB	DET	25	—	25	104	27	8	2	25.9%	7.3%	2.0%	3.12	3.30	+0.5
2026 Total	31	MLB	DET	—	—	31	133	36	11	2	27.0%	8.0%	1.5%	3.90	2.59	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	DET	60	—	60	253	66	19	5	25.9%	7.7%	1.9%	3.21	3.33	+1.1
2028	33	MLB	DET	57	—	57	242	61	19	5	25.3%	7.9%	2.0%	3.36	3.46	+1.0
2029	34	MLB	DET	54	—	54	229	56	19	5	24.6%	8.1%	2.1%	3.50	3.60	+0.8
2030	35	MLB	DET	51	—	51	216	52	18	5	23.8%	8.3%	2.2%	3.65	3.75	+0.7
2031	36	MLB	DET	48	—	48	202	47	17	5	23.1%	8.6%	2.4%	3.81	3.91	+0.6
2032	37	MLB	DET	44	—	44	187	42	17	5	22.2%	8.8%	2.5%	3.98	4.09	+0.4
2033	38	MLB	DET	41	—	41	172	37	16	5	21.4%	9.1%	2.6%	4.16	4.27	+0.3
2034	39	MLB	DET	38	—	38	158	33	15	4	20.5%	9.4%	2.8%	4.34	4.46	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			382	7	435	1848	425	145	34	23.0%	7.8%	1.9%	3.97	3.17	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—			175	3	200	849	195	67	16	23.0%	7.8%	1.9%	3.97	3.17	+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Vest (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.30	25.9%	7.3%	2.0%	—	3.46	25.3%	17.4%	171	+0.16	—	—	—
Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	31	SW	3.21	25.2%	6.0%	2.7%	.286	3.66	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.45	2.80	284	75
Chad Gaudin R 2028 · 2.66 FIP	33	SU	2.66	22.8%	6.8%	1.1%	.325	3.16	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.50	2.02	102	73
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	73
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	73
Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.94 FIP	34	SW	2.94	23.4%	5.2%	2.1%	.244	2.97	23.9%	18.7%	176	+0.03	1.43	240	72
Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP	31	SW	3.35	25.3%	9.3%	2.2%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.91	210	72
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP	31	SW	3.38	26.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.241	3.98	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.60	3.38	212	71
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	70
Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	21.9%	6.4%	2.9%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.62	3.10	120	70
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	69
Luis García R 2026 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.21	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.17	2.26	602	69
Mark Lowe R 2027 · 2.30 FIP	32	SW	2.30	28.4%	5.1%	1.7%	.302	5.15	19.2%	9.9%	98	+2.85	2.30	153	69
Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	31	SW	3.39	25.5%	9.1%	2.4%	.254	3.70	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.31	2.80	410	69
Ramon E Ramirez R 2028 · 2.37 FIP	33	SU	2.37	20.4%	5.8%	0.4%	.340	3.57	16.5%	10.6%	91	+1.20	2.37	140	68
Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.27 FIP	31	SW	3.27	22.1%	5.2%	2.5%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	333	68
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	31	SW	3.85	25.1%	10.8%	2.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	102	68
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	31	SW	3.69	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.20	3.46	295	67
Oliver Drake R 2026 · 2.91 FIP	31	SU	2.91	24.4%	7.7%	1.6%	.348	3.26	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.35	2.26	317	67
Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.05 FIP	32	SW	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.28	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.23	2.56	144	67
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP	31	SW	4.09	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.53	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	403	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2021

Service 4.581 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Arb-3	$8M	+1.1	$9M	+$1M
Totals		$10M		$11M	+$1M