Will Vest — OGILVIE

Will Vest P Detroit Tigers

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9183vR 75

ERA3.09

FIP3.03

K%24.7%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%17.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

SL+1.2 (29%)

FB+0.6 (60%)

SI (15%)

CH-0.6 (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	49	221	56	13	1	0%	1.6	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	0.4%	5.18	2.62	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	49	221	56	13	1	0%	1.6	25.3%	5.9%	19.5%	0.5%	5.18	1.87	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	0	55	226	58	17	6	0%	1.5	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	2.5%	3.27	3.71	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	0	55	226	58	17	6	0%	1.5	25.7%	7.5%	18.1%	2.7%	3.27	3.34	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	265	52	26	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	10.0%	8.5%	2.0%	5.64	3.88	+0.5
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	61	265	52	26	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	1.9%	5.64	3.74	+0.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	2	64	276	64	22	6	3%	1.1	23.2%	8.1%	15.1%	2.3%	3.94	3.43	+0.9
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	2	64	276	64	22	6	3%	1.1	23.2%	8.0%	15.2%	2.2%	3.94	3.35	+0.9
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	5	61	258	76	21	8	8%	1.0	28.1%	7.8%	20.3%	3.6%	4.11	3.68	+0.6
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	5	61	258	76	21	8	8%	1.0	28.1%	7.8%	20.3%	3.6%	4.11	3.68	+0.6
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	5	61	258	76	21	8	8%	1.0	29.5%	8.1%	21.3%	3.1%	4.11	3.34	+0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	69	0	70	289	63	16	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	5.5%	16.3%	1.1%	2.82	2.56	+1.7
2024	29	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	69	0	70	289	63	16	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	5.5%	16.3%	1.1%	2.82	2.56	+1.7
2024	29	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	69	0	70	289	63	16	3	0%	1.0	21.8%	5.5%	16.3%	1.0%	2.82	2.55	+1.7
2025	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	64	0	69	284	75	21	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	7.4%	19.0%	1.5%	3.01	2.61	+1.6
2025	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	64	0	69	284	75	21	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	7.4%	19.0%	1.5%	3.01	2.61	+1.6
2025	30	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	64	0	69	284	75	21	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	7.4%	19.0%	1.4%	3.01	2.59	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			299	6	312	1316	311	99	20	2%	1.0	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	1.5%	3.78	2.89	+6.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	28	0	28	119	28	10	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	1.8%	5.86	3.21	+0.4
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	28	0	28	119	28	10	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	1.8%	5.86	3.21	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	DET	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	DET	27	0	27	116	27	10	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	1.7%	6.07	3.17	+0.4
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	DET	27	0	27	116	27	10	2	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.6%	14.7%	1.7%	6.07	3.17	+0.4
ROS	31	MLB MLE	DET	5	0	5	22	6	2	0	0%	1.1	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	2.0%	3.09	3.03	+0.1
ROS	31	MLB CTX	DET	5	0	5	21	5	2	0	0%	1.0	24.7%	7.2%	17.5%	2.0%	3.09	3.03	+0.1
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	DET	—	—	33	141	34	12	2	—	—	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	1.7%	5.41	3.19	+0.6
FULL	31	MLB A+C	DET	—	—	32	135	34	12	2	—	—	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	1.8%	5.58	3.09	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	244	59	19	5	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.2%	3.55	3.63	+0.6
2028	33	MLB MLE	DET	50	0	53	223	52	18	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	2.5%	3.77	3.91	+0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	DET	52	0	55	232	56	18	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.2%	3.55	3.63	+0.6
2028	33	MLB CTX	DET	48	0	50	211	49	17	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	2.5%	3.77	3.91	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		404	6	422	1782	422	136	31	1%	1.0	23.7%	7.6%	16.1%	1.7%	3.74	3.02	+7.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	3	200	844	200	64	15	1%	1.0	23.7%	7.6%	16.1%	1.7%	3.74	3.02	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		402	7	456	1938	442	150	37	2%	1.1	22.8%	7.8%	15.1%	1.9%	4.04	3.20	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		176	3	200	849	194	66	16	2%	1.1	22.8%	7.8%	15.1%	1.9%	4.04	3.20	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Vest (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.29	25.6%	6.8%	2.0%	—	3.76	23.7%	15.8%	111	+0.47	—	—	—
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	81
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	80
Sam Dyson R 2019 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	22.1%	5.2%	2.4%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	2.66	333	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	76
Luis García R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	25.0%	8.3%	1.8%	.341	4.16	22.5%	13.9%	113	+1.11	2.33	617	76
Ryan Madson R 2015 · 2.99 FIP	34	SU	2.99	23.4%	5.2%	2.2%	.244	2.96	23.9%	18.7%	176	-0.03	1.42	240	74
Chad Gaudin R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	33	SU	2.67	22.8%	6.8%	1.2%	.325	3.15	21.8%	13.9%	58	+0.48	2.02	102	74
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	74
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	74
Rob Scahill R 2018 · 3.06 FIP	31	SU	3.06	22.6%	9.5%	1.2%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	201	73
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	73
Oliver Drake R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	24.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.348	3.25	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.20	2.26	317	72
Matt Bush R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	31	SU	3.60	24.2%	7.9%	2.8%	.321	4.72	17.6%	4.6%	23	+1.12	2.87	249	72
Pedro Báez R 2019 · 3.14 FIP	31	SU	3.14	25.0%	8.0%	2.1%	.207	4.30	18.6%	8.6%	17	+1.16	2.29	332	72
Al Alburquerque R 2017 · 2.84 FIP	31	SU	2.84	22.8%	7.7%	1.3%	.253	3.75	17.3%	13.3%	81	+0.91	2.84	228	72
Josh Fields R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	26.9%	6.3%	4.3%	.216	5.01	20.5%	12.9%	66	+1.03	1.90	238	72
Jake Petricka R 2019 · 3.04 FIP	31	SU	3.04	23.4%	7.7%	1.7%	.323	4.07	18.8%	10.8%	60	+1.03	3.04	252	72
Tommy Hunter R 2017 · 2.99 FIP	31	SU	2.99	28.1%	6.1%	2.7%	.257	3.16	20.5%	15.1%	89	+0.17	2.78	316	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	24.3%	7.5%	0.87	3.55
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47
Cory Gearrin ('19)	1.1	57	21.5%	9.8%	0.79	3.42
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Diego Castillo ('22)	1.3	52	28.1%	8.9%	1.07	3.12
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78