Aaron Loup — OGILVIE

Aaron Loup P Los Angeles Angels

Age 38 LHP 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 115

ERA4.41

FIP4.37

K%21.5%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%12.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL-0.5

CT-3.5

FB-5.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	48	216	51	11	6	0%	0.7	24.7%	3.8%	21.0%	3.2%	4.47	3.26	+0.7
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	48	216	51	11	6	0%	0.7	23.6%	5.1%	18.5%	2.8%	4.47	3.29	+0.7
2016	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	36	156	43	11	2	0%	0.8	26.5%	5.0%	21.5%	1.4%	4.00	2.26	+1.0
2016	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	36	156	43	11	2	0%	0.8	27.6%	7.1%	20.5%	1.3%	4.00	2.35	+0.9
2017	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	70	0	58	265	64	24	4	0%	0.8	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	1.5%	3.75	3.04	+1.0
2017	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	70	0	58	265	64	24	4	0%	0.8	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	1.5%	3.75	3.03	+1.0
2018	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	59	0	40	183	44	14	4	0%	0.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.4%	2.0%	4.54	3.16	+0.7
2018	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	59	0	40	183	44	14	4	0%	0.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.4%	2.2%	4.54	3.25	+0.6
2019	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	4	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	0.8	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	+0.1
2019	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	4	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	0.8	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.00	+0.1
2020	32	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	24	0	25	96	22	4	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	4.2%	18.8%	3.2%	2.52	3.46	+0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	24	0	25	96	22	4	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	4.2%	18.8%	3.1%	2.52	3.38	+0.3
2021	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	65	2	57	218	57	16	1	3%	0.9	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	0.5%	0.95	2.07	+1.7
2021	33	MLB RAW	New York Mets	65	2	57	218	57	16	1	3%	0.9	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	0.5%	0.95	2.16	+1.6
2022	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	65	0	59	260	52	19	4	0%	0.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	1.5%	3.84	3.16	+1.0
2022	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	65	0	59	260	52	19	4	0%	0.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	1.5%	3.84	3.19	+1.0
2023	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	55	0	49	231	45	16	6	0%	0.9	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.5%	6.10	3.73	+0.5
2023	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	55	0	49	231	45	16	6	0%	0.9	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.5%	6.10	3.73	+0.5
2023	35	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	55	0	49	231	45	16	6	0%	0.9	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.6%	6.10	3.84	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			423	2	346	1515	350	105	30	0%	0.8	23.1%	6.9%	16.2%	2.0%	3.74	3.11	+5.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	LAA	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	2.9%	4.41	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	190	39	18	6	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.80	-0.1
2028	40	MLB MLE	LAA	37	0	39	164	32	17	6	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	3.8%	5.00	5.23	-0.3
2027	39	MLB CTX	LAA	37	0	39	165	34	15	6	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.4%	11.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.80	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	LAA	27	0	28	118	23	12	5	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.1%	9.1%	3.8%	5.00	5.23	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		487	2	413	1797	406	132	40	0%	0.8	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	2.2%	3.91	3.35	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		236	1	200	870	197	64	19	0%	0.8	22.6%	7.4%	15.2%	2.2%	3.91	3.35	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		451	2	374	1639	384	110	31	0%	0.8	23.4%	6.7%	16.7%	1.9%	3.73	3.00	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		241	1	200	876	205	59	16	0%	0.8	23.4%	6.7%	16.7%	1.9%	3.73	3.00	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Loup (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	21.5%	8.7%	2.9%	—	5.00	19.9%	10.1%	84	+0.63	—	—	—
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	84
Wilfredo Ledezma L 2017 · 3.35 FIP	36	SU	3.35	26.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	109	70
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	68
Craig Breslow L 2018 · 5.13 FIP	37	SU	5.13	17.8%	15.1%	2.9%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	159	62
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	41
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	40
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	39
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	38
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	37
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	37
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	36
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	35
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	35
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	35
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	34
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	33
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	33
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	31
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	30
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	30

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	20.5%	9.3%	1.29	4.65
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21