Geury Rodriguez — OGILVIE

Geury Rodriguez P Hickory Crawdads

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 155 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 11 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%23.2%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL TEX Red	15	1	19	94	29	14	1	7%	1.3	21.0%	18.6%	2.4%	1.4%	8.84	4.46	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL TEX Red	15	1	19	94	29	14	1	7%	1.3	30.9%	14.9%	16.0%	1.1%	8.84	2.94	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	10	1	20	92	32	12	0	10%	2.0	23.7%	16.3%	7.3%	0.0%	2.66	3.17	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	10	1	20	92	32	12	0	10%	2.0	23.7%	16.3%	7.3%	0.0%	2.66	3.17	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	10	1	20	92	32	12	0	10%	2.0	34.8%	13.0%	21.7%	0.0%	2.66	1.72	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	7	3	19	76	26	6	0	43%	2.8	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	0.0%	2.79	2.39	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	7	3	19	76	26	6	0	43%	2.8	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	0.0%	2.79	2.39	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	7	3	19	76	26	6	0	43%	2.8	34.2%	7.9%	26.3%	0.0%	2.79	1.34	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	26	112	37	17	3	0%	1.7	22.7%	17.6%	5.0%	2.8%	4.15	4.93	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	26	112	37	17	3	0%	1.7	22.7%	17.6%	5.0%	2.8%	4.15	4.93	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	26	112	37	17	3	0%	1.7	33.0%	15.2%	17.9%	2.7%	4.15	3.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	29	0	48	202	59	31	4	0%	1.7	21.6%	18.1%	3.5%	2.6%	2.62	4.98	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	29	0	48	202	59	31	4	0%	1.7	21.6%	18.1%	3.5%	2.6%	2.62	4.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	TEX	29	0	48	202	59	31	4	0%	1.7	29.2%	15.3%	13.9%	2.0%	2.62	3.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TEX	47	0	49	209	50	25	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	11.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.54	+0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	TEX	49	0	51	217	54	23	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.33	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	TEX	50	0	53	222	56	22	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.18	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	53	225	58	22	6	0%	1.0	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	53	225	58	22	6	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.07	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	TEX	50	0	52	222	57	22	6	0%	1.1	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	TEX	23	0	24	101	24	12	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	11.9%	12.2%	2.9%	4.65	4.54	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	TEX	35	0	37	156	39	17	4	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.45	4.33	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	TEX	42	0	44	186	47	19	5	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	2.8%	4.29	4.18	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	TEX	45	0	47	198	51	19	6	0%	1.0	25.7%	9.7%	16.0%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	TEX	47	0	49	207	53	20	6	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.7%	16.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.07	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	TEX	47	0	49	207	53	20	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.7%	16.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.11	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	0	250	1054	268	107	30	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.26	3.81	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	215	86	24	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.2%	15.2%	2.8%	4.26	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		76	5	133	576	128	96	10	7%	1.8	22.3%	16.7%	5.5%	1.7%	3.86	4.25	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	8	200	866	193	145	14	7%	1.8	22.3%	16.7%	5.5%	1.7%	3.86	4.25	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Geury Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	23.2%	13.6%	3.0%	—	4.35	24.8%	13.8%	153	-0.51	—	—	—
Destin Dotson L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	21	SU	3.90	22.3%	12.2%	2.1%	.288	5.84	23.0%	3.1%	48	+1.94	2.90	113	86
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	84
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	83
Evan Taylor L 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	28.1%	16.5%	2.7%	.304	3.19	21.9%	10.0%	150	-1.12	3.01	223	83
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	82
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	81
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	80
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	80
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	80
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	80
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	79
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	79
James Ziemba L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	22	SU	3.73	18.3%	12.5%	1.1%	.309	5.16	11.7%	-0.7%	78	+1.43	3.73	110	78
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	77
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	77
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	77
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	46	25.2%	10.4%	1.11	4.31
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84