Alex McCoy

OF Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 25 R/R 6'5" / 260 lbs A+ HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A/ROKSD	247	.315/.399/.521	7	14	85	—	.237/.313/.393
2026	24	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	592	.276/.357/.480	23	29	87	—	.226/.292/.365
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBSD	1	.207/.270/.343	0	0	74	-0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB	26	MLBSD	56	.211/.275/.358	2	1	79	-0.0
2029PROJ32% MLB	27	MLBSD	91	.212/.276/.358	3	1	79	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

wRC+77

wOBA75

ISO53

K%35

BB%18

Speed14

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsDrew Ellis (age 25) · Ruben Cardenas (age 26) · Brandon Meredith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .270 / .343

PA1

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP279

ISO146

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	226	195	62	12	4	6	20	53	7	14	2	318	401	513	914	195	400	23	9	397	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK	ACL Padres	—	21	18	5	3	0	1	0	7	3	0	1	278	381	611	992	333	400	33	0	431	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	114	105	33	4	0	4	8	31	0	3	3	314	363	467	829	152	408	27	7	365	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	427	370	99	27	1	15	42	111	10	21	6	268	358	468	825	200	337	26	10	363	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	51	44	11	4	0	4	5	19	1	5	1	250	340	614	954	364	318	37	10	400	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	226	201	48	8	3	5	14	75	7	14	2	239	311	383	694	144	333	33	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	21	18	4	2	0	1	0	10	3	0	1	222	333	500	833	278	271	48	0	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	—	114	107	29	3	0	3	6	38	0	3	3	271	310	383	693	112	380	33	5	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	427	383	82	21	1	11	29	141	10	21	6	214	287	360	647	146	293	33	7	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	247	219	51	10	3	5	14	85	10	14	3	233	309	374	683	142	346	34	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	2 teams	—	247	213	67	15	4	7	20	60	10	14	3	315	399	521	920	207	400	24	8	400	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	592	536	123	27	1	16	38	196	11	29	10	229	294	373	667	144	323	33	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	592	519	143	35	1	23	55	161	11	29	10	276	357	480	837	204	351	27	9	366	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	247	221	51	10	3	5	14	85	10	14	3	231	309	371	680	140	328	34	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	592	538	123	27	1	16	38	196	11	29	10	229	294	372	666	143	311	33	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A MLE	2 teams	—	247	221	51	10	3	5	14	85	10	14	3	231	309	371	680	140	328	34	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	592	538	123	27	1	16	38	196	11	29	10	229	294	372	666	143	311	33	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	0%	380	347	73	15	1	10	24	119	6	9	3	210	273	347	620	137	285	31	6	277	74	-12	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	SD	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	207	270	343	613	136	279	0	0	274	74	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	22%	254	232	50	10	1	8	16	79	4	5	2	214	278	362	639	147	286	31	6	285	79	-6	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	32%	281	256	55	11	1	8	19	86	4	4	2	215	279	362	640	147	285	31	7	286	79	-7	+0	-1	-2	+6	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	SD	39%	297	271	59	12	1	9	20	90	4	4	1	215	279	359	638	145	285	30	7	285	79	-7	+0	-2	-2	+6	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	22%	56	51	11	2	0	2	4	17	1	1	0	211	275	358	633	147	280	30	7	282	79	-1	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	32%	91	84	17	3	0	3	6	28	1	1	1	212	276	358	634	146	280	31	7	283	79	-2	-0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	SD	39%	115	104	21	4	0	3	8	35	2	1	1	212	276	356	631	144	279	30	7	282	79	-3	-0	-1	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	262	239	49	9	0	8	18	80	4	3	2	205	272	343	615	138	270	31	7	282	80	-6	-0	-1	-2	+6	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	121	22	0	20	45	198	10	7	5	204	272	342	614	138	268	30	7	282	80	-16	-0	-3	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1881	1706	379	78	8	52	120	602	36	61	20	222	287	369	656	147	306	32	6	286	80	-27	+1	-4	-6	+23	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	590	131	27	3	18	41	208	12	21	7	222	286	369	655	147	306	32	6	286	80	-17	+0	-3	-4	+14	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 427 PAwOBA .356 → .283 (−73)K% 26.0% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.00%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	33.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.60%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.988	6.74%
HBP% /PA	2.34%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	1.83%
Singles /BIP	21.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.008	×0.988	19.81%
Doubles /BIP	10.42%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.008	×0.988	8.41%
Triples /BIP	0.39%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.008	×0.988	0.33%
Home runs /BIP	5.79%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.988	4.58%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .356 → .283; ISO .200 → .154; BABIP .337 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 114 PAwOBA .359 → .302 (−56)K% 27.2% → 33.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.19%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	33.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.02%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.012	4.97%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	33.78%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.023	×1.012	32.17%
Doubles /BIP	5.41%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.023	×1.012	4.70%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.023	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.41%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	4.38%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .359 → .302; ISO .152 → .120; BABIP .408 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALake Elsinore Storm · 226 PAwOBA .393 → .298 (−95)K% 23.5% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.45%	÷0.956	×1.360	—	—	33.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.85%	÷0.952	×0.690	—	×0.990	6.35%
HBP% /PA	3.10%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	2.39%
Singles /BIP	28.17%	÷0.989	×0.920	×0.956	×0.990	24.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.45%	÷1.062	×0.830	×0.956	×0.990	6.25%
Triples /BIP	2.82%	÷1.150	×0.910	×0.956	×0.990	2.11%
Home runs /BIP	4.23%	÷0.936	×0.800	—	×0.990	3.58%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 98, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .393 → .298; ISO .195 → .142; BABIP .400 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Padres · 21 PAwOBA .418 → .254 (−164)K% 33.3% → 46.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.023	×1.440	—	—	46.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷0.990	×0.620	—	×0.965	0.00%
HBP% /PA	14.29%	—	×0.720	—	×0.965	9.93%
Singles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.010	×0.820	—	×0.965	7.12%
Doubles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.045	×0.720	—	×0.965	18.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.018	×0.720	—	×0.965	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.09%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×0.965	6.72%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 104, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .418 → .254; ISO .333 → .193; BABIP .400 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Eric Anthony'89-'97 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,243 PA	3.4	2,243	78	24	225*	300*	410*	-22	-22	0.1	0.6
/162	664	23	7	-6.7	-6.6	0.0	pk7: 1
#4Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	264	8	4	216	276	362	-2	-3	-0.0	-0.0
/162	664	19	10	-4.0	-8.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#5Jolbert Cabrera'98-'08 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	18	38	247*	295*	354*	-3	-9	-1.1	-0.7
/162	664	8	16	-1.4	-4.0	-0.5	pk7: -0
#6Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alex McCoy (OGILVIE)	25	—	—	—	—	208/270/344	136	285	6	5	31%	6%	74	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	40→38	47→55	37→40	47	206/278/343	137	265	15	3	28%	8%	76	-0.4	202/292/370	168	265	18	5	29%	10%	88	+0.4	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Ruben Cardenas 2024 · AAA	26	41→43	50→55	41→50	42	212/273/363	152	285	19	8	32%	7%	78	-0.3	229/289/397	168	278	20	13	25%	6%	92	+0.7	230/284/427	197	249	27	16	20%	4%	95	+0.5
✕Brandon Meredith 2015 · AA	25	40→39	50	43→45	47	210/290/365	155	269	18	7	28%	9%	86	+0.3	213/280/334	121	286	13	8	29%	8%	74	-0.5	194/257/282	89	260	10	5	28%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Brian McFall 2009 · AA	25	40→44	51→55	44→50	40	210/271/367	157	280	19	8	32%	6%	79	-0.2	217/282/353	136	294	15	9	30%	6%	80	-0.2	201/271/327	126	271	14	6	30%	6%	67	-0.4
✕Kiel Roling 2012 · AA	25	40→37	50→55	41→30	38	210/260/361	151	290	19	3	34%	6%	73	-0.6	209/256/362	153	281	19	3	32%	6%	72	-0.7	202/247/358	157	260	20	1	31%	5%	66	-0.7
✕Jamie Romak 2011 · AA	25	42→48	45→55	38→45	40	210/268/333	123	282	13	3	30%	6%	70	-0.9	208/268/344	136	255	16	6	25%	6%	72	-0.7	202/257/379	177	268	21	5	33%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Logan Hill 2019 · AA	26	40	50	40→45	39	206/270/354	148	291	18	5	35%	7%	76	-0.4	211/271/351	140	299	15	4	33%	6%	75	-0.5	200/261/340	140	279	15	1	33%	6%	66	-1.0
✕Quincy Latimore 2014 · AA	25	42	45→50	43→50	41	210/264/333	123	276	13	9	28%	6%	68	-1.0	218/269/346	128	285	14	10	28%	6%	73	-0.6	207/260/336	129	270	15	8	28%	6%	64	-0.9
✕Johermyn Chavez 2014 · AA	25	41→49	44→50	40→45	43	207/276/325	118	274	12	6	28%	7%	71	-0.8	218/279/329	111	303	12	7	30%	6%	73	-0.6	197/258/282	85	277	12	0	32%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Mike Bianucci 2011 · A	25	40	52→60	41→40	36	213/257/374	160	277	21	4	32%	4%	75	-0.5	212/258/369	157	268	20	4	29%	5%	74	-0.5	225/268/403	178	265	25	2	26%	4%	83	+0.1
✕Travis Taijeron 2015 · AA	26	41	51→55	40	42	208/283/374	166	296	18	3	34%	8%	85	+0.2	200/287/355	155	313	17	3	38%	9%	82	+0.0	187/281/337	150	300	16	2	40%	9%	74	-0.5
✕Devin Mann 2022 · AA	25	41→45	50	43→45	44	212/287/367	154	275	17	7	29%	7%	85	+0.2	220/300/368	148	290	16	5	28%	9%	90	+0.6	215/299/360	144	285	15	3	28%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Jacob Butler 2008 · A	25	39→40	50	38→30	45	207/276/358	151	272	18	3	31%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/352	139	282	15	3	28%	8%	79	-0.2	199/272/335	137	259	15	0	28%	8%	68	-0.8
✕Carter Aldrete 2023 · AA	25	41	49→50	42→45	39	213/264/359	145	291	18	7	33%	6%	74	-0.5	204/250/332	128	280	15	5	32%	6%	62	-1.4	182/224/297	114	246	14	1	32%	5%	42	-1.5
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	36→41	51→55	46→45	47	194/276/357	163	259	19	7	32%	9%	78	-0.3	192/259/327	135	269	16	6	33%	7%	65	-1.2	167/233/291	124	223	18	2	34%	6%	45	-1.8
✕Zach Green 2019 · AAA	25	43→44	49→55	40	35	213/271/366	153	322	17	3	38%	6%	79	-0.2	208/280/388	180	331	22	4	41%	8%	87	+0.4	179/250/352	173	276	22	1	42%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Davis Wendzel 2022 · AAA	25	43→32	45→50	43→40	43	215/289/338	123	285	13	5	28%	7%	79	-0.2	194/269/332	138	249	18	5	29%	8%	71	-0.8	194/271/323	128	229	14	4	22%	7%	67	-0.6
✕Brett Carroll 2008 · MLB	25	42→46	51→55	41→50	39	217/268/380	163	270	18	6	27%	5%	81	-0.1	217/276/375	158	273	18	6	27%	6%	82	+0.0	197/266/344	147	247	17	6	27%	6%	70	-0.4
✕Allan Cerda 2024 · AA	24	33→25	51→55	41→45	45	174/279/330	156	276	19	7	41%	11%	75	-0.5	187/266/327	140	306	16	8	41%	9%	68	-1.0	141/217/302	161	189	23	4	40%	8%	41	-0.6
✕Matt Macri 2007 · AA	25	43→40	44→55	44→45	42	216/274/335	119	281	12	6	27%	6%	72	-0.7	224/272/372	148	283	16	6	26%	5%	80	-0.2	217/265/372	156	270	16	6	26%	5%	74	-0.4

Alex McCoy

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps