Johermyn Chavez
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | AATennessee Smo… | 72 | .206/.306/.270 | 0 | 0 | 38 | — | .182/.250/.242 |
| 2014 | 25 | A+WSH | 145 | .224/.317/.320 | 3 | 0 | 54 | — | .208/.275/.300 |
| 2015 | 26 | INTLAguilas del Z… | 41 | .103/.146/.154 | 0 | 0 | -19 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 17 | ROK | Pulaski Blue Jays | — | 124 | 105 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 276 | 377 | 362 | 739 | 86 | 345 | 19 | 7 | 337 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | — | 203 | 176 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 50 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 301 | 391 | 494 | 885 | 193 | 388 | 25 | 10 | 391 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 439 | 402 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 128 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 211 | 273 | 323 | 596 | 112 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 569 | 508 | 144 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 40 | 137 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 283 | 351 | 474 | 826 | 191 | 344 | 24 | 7 | 360 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 605 | 534 | 168 | 30 | 7 | 32 | 52 | 131 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 315 | 389 | 577 | 966 | 262 | 364 | 22 | 9 | 416 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 118 | 101 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 267 | 373 | 396 | 769 | 129 | 342 | 22 | 14 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 510 | 439 | 95 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 124 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 216 | 315 | 360 | 675 | 144 | 268 | 24 | 10 | 303 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 192 | 222 | 192 | 415 | 278 | 30 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 288 | 246 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 232 | 339 | 386 | 725 | 154 | 278 | 22 | 12 | 328 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | ROK | AZL Mariners | — | 24 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 368 | 455 | 895 | 1.349 | 526 | 333 | 17 | 8 | 514 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | INTL | Caribes de Anzoategui | — | 101 | 85 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 212 | 337 | 341 | 678 | 129 | 273 | 27 | 10 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 72 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 306 | 270 | 575 | 63 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 273 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 145 | 125 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 317 | 320 | 637 | 96 | 275 | 23 | 8 | 290 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 41 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 146 | 154 | 300 | 51 | 167 | 37 | 5 | 141 | -19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 17 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Blue Jays | — | 124 | 108 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 311 | 287 | 599 | 65 | 288 | 27 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 203 | 183 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 72 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 277 | 322 | 600 | 120 | 295 | 35 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 439 | 409 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 174 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 166 | 218 | 249 | 467 | 83 | 263 | 40 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 569 | 520 | 120 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 186 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 231 | 287 | 375 | 662 | 144 | 309 | 33 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 605 | 553 | 141 | 24 | 5 | 25 | 33 | 179 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 255 | 312 | 452 | 764 | 197 | 321 | 30 | 5 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 510 | 457 | 85 | 14 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 147 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 186 | 259 | 295 | 554 | 109 | 240 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 288 | 257 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 78 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 206 | 287 | 331 | 617 | 125 | 264 | 27 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | ROK MLE | AZL Mariners | — | 24 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 750 | 1.114 | 450 | 233 | 25 | 4 | 416 | 168 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 72 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 242 | 492 | 61 | 269 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 145 | 130 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 275 | 300 | 575 | 92 | 267 | 32 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 17 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Blue Jays | — | 124 | 108 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 311 | 287 | 599 | 65 | 312 | 27 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 17 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Blue Jays | — | 124 | 105 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 276 | 377 | 362 | 739 | 86 | 345 | 19 | 7 | 337 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 203 | 183 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 72 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 202 | 277 | 322 | 600 | 120 | 306 | 35 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Blue Jays | — | 203 | 176 | 53 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 50 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 301 | 391 | 494 | 885 | 193 | 388 | 25 | 10 | 391 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 439 | 409 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 174 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 166 | 218 | 249 | 467 | 83 | 272 | 40 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 439 | 402 | 85 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 128 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 211 | 273 | 323 | 596 | 112 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 269 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 569 | 520 | 120 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 186 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 231 | 287 | 375 | 662 | 144 | 319 | 33 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 569 | 508 | 144 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 40 | 137 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 283 | 351 | 474 | 826 | 191 | 344 | 24 | 7 | 360 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 723 | 665 | 168 | 29 | 6 | 29 | 39 | 214 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 253 | 307 | 445 | 752 | 192 | 327 | 30 | 5 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 723 | 635 | 195 | 35 | 8 | 34 | 69 | 157 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 307 | 386 | 548 | 934 | 241 | 360 | 22 | 10 | 405 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 482 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 155 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 185 | 257 | 290 | 548 | 106 | 246 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 537 | 465 | 100 | 16 | 4 | 13 | 50 | 132 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 215 | 310 | 351 | 661 | 135 | 269 | 25 | 9 | 298 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 413 | 363 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 111 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 212 | 301 | 353 | 653 | 140 | 272 | 27 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 413 | 350 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 13 | 47 | 93 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 234 | 345 | 403 | 748 | 169 | 280 | 23 | 11 | 336 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 72 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 242 | 492 | 61 | 267 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | Tennessee Smokies | — | 72 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 306 | 270 | 575 | 63 | 283 | 24 | 10 | 273 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 145 | 130 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 208 | 275 | 300 | 575 | 92 | 286 | 32 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ RAW | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 145 | 125 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 317 | 320 | 637 | 96 | 275 | 23 | 8 | 290 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL MLE | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 41 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 146 | 154 | 300 | 51 | 167 | 37 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | INTL RAW | Aguilas del Zulia | — | 41 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 146 | 154 | 300 | 51 | 167 | 37 | 5 | 141 | -19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2006 | 17 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Blue Jays | — | 124 | 109 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 220 | 311 | 284 | 596 | 64 | 288 | 27 | 5 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2007 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Blue Jays | — | 203 | 182 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 72 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 203 | 277 | 324 | 601 | 121 | 295 | 35 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 19 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 439 | 409 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 174 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 166 | 218 | 249 | 467 | 83 | 263 | 40 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 569 | 523 | 120 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 186 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 229 | 287 | 373 | 660 | 143 | 309 | 33 | 5 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 723 | 665 | 168 | 29 | 6 | 29 | 39 | 214 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 253 | 307 | 445 | 752 | 192 | 321 | 30 | 5 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 537 | 485 | 89 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 155 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 184 | 257 | 289 | 546 | 105 | 240 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 413 | 364 | 77 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 111 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 212 | 301 | 352 | 652 | 140 | 262 | 27 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 72 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 250 | 242 | 492 | 61 | 269 | 29 | 6 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Wilmington Blue Rocks | — | 145 | 132 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 275 | 295 | 570 | 91 | 267 | 32 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3266 | 2965 | 626 | 116 | 18 | 78 | 184 | 1027 | 82 | 44 | 40 | 211 | 276 | 341 | 617 | 130 | 291 | 31 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -129 | -7 | +0 | -35 | +71 | -10.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 125 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 204 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 212 | 277 | 346 | 623 | 134 | 291 | 31 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -26 | -1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2014 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 145 PAwOBA .289 → .248 (−41)K% 23.4% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.45% | ÷1.047 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷1.091 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.45% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 2.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.18% | ÷0.956 | ×0.940 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.30% | ÷0.884 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.800 | ×1.019 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷0.889 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 3.26% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 91, 2B 77, 3B 106, K 109, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .289 → .248; ISO .096 → .091; BABIP .275 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AATennessee Smokies · 72 PAwOBA .260 → .224 (−36)K% 23.6% → 29.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.61% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.060 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.78% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 18.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.970 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 8.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.880 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 98, 2B 94, 3B 87, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .260 → .224; ISO .063 → .059; BABIP .283 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAJackson Generals · 288 PAwOBA .319 → .271 (−48)K% 21.5% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.53% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.15% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.74% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷0.943 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 19.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.228 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.017 | ×1.027 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.73% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 89, 2B 146, 3B 130, K 95, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .319 → .271; ISO .154 → .126; BABIP .278 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKAZL Mariners · 24 PAwOBA .544 → .416 (−128)K% 16.7% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 5.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 18.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 10.04% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .544 → .416; ISO .526 → .418; BABIP .333 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AAJackson Generals · 510 PAwOBA .296 → .245 (−51)K% 24.3% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.31% | ÷1.031 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.22% | ÷1.063 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 6.14% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.75% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 2.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.68% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 18.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷1.028 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 4.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.13% | ÷1.130 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 3.05% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 106, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .296 → .245; ISO .144 → .113; BABIP .268 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+High Desert Mavericks · 605 PAwOBA .406 → .323 (−83)K% 21.7% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.65% | ÷0.981 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.26% | ÷1.116 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.15% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.57% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 22.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.44% | ÷1.020 | ×0.820 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 6.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷1.090 | ×0.760 | ×1.016 | ×1.027 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.164 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 6.45% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 118, K 96, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .406 → .323; ISO .262 → .202; BABIP .364 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 ALansing Lugnuts · 569 PAwOBA .355 → .286 (−69)K% 24.1% → 32.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.08% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×1.030 | 23.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.030 | 4.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×1.030 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 4.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .355 → .286; ISO .191 → .149; BABIP .344 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2008 ALansing Lugnuts · 439 PAwOBA .263 → .204 (−59)K% 29.2% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.05% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.045 | 19.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.972 | ×1.045 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.045 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .263 → .204; ISO .112 → .083; BABIP .290 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .