Matthew Dalquist

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 24 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1360ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	AMIN	18	11	68	4.39	2.21	22.4%	6.6%	—	K 16.6% · BB 7.7% · FIP 2.92
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.36	4.36	18.6%	7.9%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	4	4	23	4.31	4.28	19.8%	7.9%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	6	6	35	4.27	4.25	20.5%	8.0%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Noah Gotsis (age 25) · Andrew Quezada (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%18.6%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.7%

Proj IP47

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	11	68	290	65	19	1	61%	3.8	16.6%	7.7%	8.9%	0.4%	4.39	2.92	—
2026	23	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	11	68	290	65	19	1	61%	3.8	16.6%	7.7%	8.9%	0.4%	4.39	2.92	—
2026	23	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	18	11	68	290	65	19	1	61%	3.8	22.4%	6.6%	15.9%	0.3%	4.39	2.21	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	2.6%	4.36	4.36	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	54	226	45	18	6	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.27	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	52	220	45	18	6	100%	6.5	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	2.7%	4.26	4.24	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	50	213	44	17	6	100%	6.3	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	2.8%	4.27	4.28	+0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	23	97	19	8	3	100%	5.8	19.8%	7.9%	11.9%	2.7%	4.31	4.28	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	35	148	30	12	4	100%	5.8	20.5%	8.0%	12.5%	2.7%	4.27	4.25	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	39	165	34	13	5	100%	6.5	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	2.8%	4.28	4.29	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	16	96	407	83	33	11	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.28	3.89	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	172	69	23	100%	6.2	20.4%	8.0%	12.3%	2.7%	4.28	3.89	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		18	11	68	290	48	22	1	61%	3.8	16.6%	7.7%	8.9%	0.4%	4.39	2.92	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	33	200	857	142	66	4	61%	3.8	16.6%	7.7%	8.9%	0.4%	4.39	2.92	+2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 68 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.92 (+0.70)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.41%	—	×0.740	16.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.55%	—	×1.180	7.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.34%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.45%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matthew Dalquist (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	18.6%	7.9%	2.6%	—	4.26	20.3%	12.3%	156	-0.10	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	91
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	89
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	88
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	83
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	82
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	82
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	81
Ryan Drese R 2001 · 3.58 FIP	25	SW	3.58	16.1%	8.7%	1.3%	.273	4.20	12.8%	5.2%	391	+0.62	3.58	557	81
Kyle Smith R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	24	SP-	3.31	15.2%	5.7%	1.4%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	81
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	81
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	81
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	81
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	81
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	81
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	81
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	80
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	19.9%	8.0%	1.04	4.30
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*