Carlos Sanchez
C Beloit Sky Carp| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKMIA | 130 | .193/.318/.284 | 1 | 1 | 19 | — | .139/.233/.209 |
| 2025 | 20 | AMIA | 204 | .260/.358/.356 | 2 | 1 | 55 | — | .205/.279/.276 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/AMIA | 240 | .187/.321/.369 | 10 | 2 | 50 | — | .152/.249/.291 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBMIA | 1 | .194/.277/.303 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBMIA | 60 | .198/.281/.313 | 1 | 1 | 75 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBMIA | 119 | .202/.284/.320 | 3 | 2 | 78 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Marlins | — | 174 | 151 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 329 | 371 | 700 | 126 | 277 | 18 | 10 | 311 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 149 | 128 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 315 | 266 | 581 | 47 | 248 | 14 | 12 | 270 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Marlins | — | 130 | 109 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 318 | 284 | 602 | 92 | 253 | 23 | 12 | 284 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 204 | 177 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 260 | 358 | 356 | 714 | 96 | 352 | 25 | 13 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 138 | 116 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 155 | 274 | 319 | 593 | 164 | 176 | 29 | 14 | 268 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 102 | 82 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 382 | 439 | 821 | 207 | 230 | 16 | 19 | 371 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 174 | 157 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 159 | 224 | 229 | 453 | 70 | 179 | 22 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 149 | 135 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 233 | 207 | 440 | 37 | 205 | 20 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 130 | 115 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 233 | 209 | 441 | 70 | 200 | 34 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 204 | 185 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 279 | 276 | 555 | 70 | 308 | 33 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 138 | 121 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 124 | 215 | 248 | 463 | 124 | 151 | 37 | 10 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 102 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 294 | 348 | 642 | 157 | 206 | 22 | 12 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 174 | 157 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 159 | 224 | 229 | 453 | 70 | 190 | 22 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Marlins | — | 174 | 151 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 32 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 329 | 371 | 700 | 126 | 277 | 18 | 10 | 311 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 149 | 135 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 170 | 233 | 207 | 440 | 37 | 206 | 20 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Marlins | — | 149 | 128 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 219 | 315 | 266 | 581 | 47 | 248 | 14 | 12 | 270 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 130 | 115 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 233 | 209 | 441 | 70 | 211 | 34 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Marlins | — | 130 | 109 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 318 | 284 | 602 | 92 | 253 | 23 | 12 | 284 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 204 | 185 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 205 | 279 | 276 | 555 | 70 | 316 | 33 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 204 | 177 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 260 | 358 | 356 | 714 | 96 | 352 | 25 | 13 | 328 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 210 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 249 | 290 | 539 | 138 | 182 | 30 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 240 | 198 | 37 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 187 | 321 | 369 | 689 | 182 | 200 | 23 | 16 | 312 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Marlins | — | 174 | 159 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 157 | 224 | 226 | 450 | 69 | 179 | 22 | 7 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 149 | 137 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 233 | 204 | 437 | 36 | 205 | 20 | 7 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 130 | 115 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 233 | 209 | 441 | 70 | 200 | 34 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 204 | 183 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 279 | 279 | 558 | 71 | 308 | 33 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 211 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 249 | 289 | 538 | 137 | 174 | 30 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Marlins | — | 130 | 115 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 44 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 139 | 233 | 209 | 441 | 70 | 200 | 34 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 204 | 183 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 208 | 279 | 279 | 558 | 71 | 308 | 33 | 9 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 211 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 152 | 249 | 289 | 538 | 137 | 174 | 30 | 11 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIA | 0% | 350 | 311 | 63 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 100 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 283 | 317 | 600 | 116 | 267 | 29 | 10 | 273 | 71 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | MIA | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 277 | 303 | 580 | 109 | 258 | 0 | 0 | 265 | 71 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIA | 35% | 175 | 155 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 287 | 327 | 615 | 122 | 269 | 28 | 10 | 279 | 75 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIA | 46% | 258 | 229 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 71 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 209 | 291 | 335 | 626 | 127 | 271 | 28 | 10 | 283 | 78 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 317 | 282 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 86 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 293 | 340 | 633 | 129 | 272 | 27 | 9 | 286 | 80 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 356 | 317 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 96 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 212 | 294 | 343 | 638 | 131 | 273 | 27 | 10 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 370 | 329 | 70 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 35 | 99 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 213 | 294 | 344 | 638 | 131 | 273 | 27 | 9 | 288 | 81 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 374 | 332 | 71 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 101 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 211 | 292 | 339 | 632 | 128 | 272 | 27 | 10 | 285 | 79 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 53% | 368 | 328 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 100 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 124 | 271 | 27 | 10 | 282 | 77 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +8 | 0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 359 | 320 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 99 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 206 | 286 | 325 | 611 | 119 | 269 | 28 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -11 | -0 | -2 | +6 | +8 | 0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIA | 35% | 60 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 281 | 313 | 594 | 115 | 260 | 28 | 10 | 271 | 75 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIA | 46% | 119 | 106 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 284 | 320 | 605 | 119 | 262 | 28 | 9 | 275 | 78 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 164 | 146 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 286 | 325 | 612 | 121 | 263 | 27 | 10 | 278 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 193 | 172 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 52 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 205 | 288 | 328 | 616 | 123 | 264 | 27 | 9 | 279 | 81 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 201 | 179 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 206 | 288 | 329 | 617 | 123 | 264 | 27 | 9 | 280 | 81 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 203 | 181 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 286 | 324 | 610 | 120 | 263 | 27 | 9 | 277 | 79 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 53% | 195 | 173 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 53 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 283 | 318 | 601 | 116 | 262 | 27 | 10 | 273 | 77 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 188 | 167 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 280 | 311 | 590 | 112 | 260 | 28 | 10 | 269 | 74 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1323 | 1178 | 241 | 43 | 7 | 29 | 126 | 360 | 7 | 15 | 4 | 205 | 285 | 327 | 612 | 122 | 266 | 27 | 10 | 276 | 68 | -34 | +1 | -2 | +24 | +29 | 1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 118 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 62 | 177 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 204 | 284 | 323 | 607 | 119 | 266 | 27 | 10 | 276 | 68 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3614 | 3219 | 640 | 116 | 15 | 76 | 336 | 993 | 25 | 41 | 12 | 199 | 280 | 315 | 595 | 116 | 259 | 27 | 9 | 268 | 68 | -72 | +2 | -4 | +49 | +59 | 3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 179 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 280 | 320 | 599 | 119 | 261 | 28 | 9 | 268 | 68 | -17 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 138 PAwOBA .267 → .208 (−59)K% 29.0% → 36.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.99% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 9.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 11.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 10.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.973 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.33% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .267 → .208; ISO .164 → .128; BABIP .176 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 102 PAwOBA .359 → .290 (−68)K% 15.7% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 12.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | — | 16.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | — | 2.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 6.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .359 → .290; ISO .207 → .169; BABIP .230 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 204 PAwOBA .320 → .249 (−71)K% 24.5% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.51% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷1.018 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.56% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×1.015 | 24.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.957 | ×1.015 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.57% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×1.015 | 1.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.57% | ÷1.035 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.24% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .320 → .249; ISO .096 → .077; BABIP .352 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Marlins · 130 PAwOBA .280 → .197 (−83)K% 23.1% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.08% | ÷0.987 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.54% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.46% | ÷0.985 | ×0.820 | ×1.009 | ×0.995 | 13.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.86% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | ×1.009 | ×0.995 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | ×1.009 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.898 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 1.09% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 101, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .280 → .197; ISO .092 → .064; BABIP .253 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Marlins · 149 PAwOBA .266 → .205 (−61)K% 14.1% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.09% | ÷0.995 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.41% | ÷0.958 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.43% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 18.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.80% | ÷1.098 | ×0.720 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 1.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.023 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.995 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.74% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 100, 2B 120, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .266 → .205; ISO .047 → .035; BABIP .248 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Marlins · 174 PAwOBA .308 → .202 (−106)K% 18.4% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.39% | ÷1.019 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.77% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.07% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.69% | ÷1.010 | ×0.680 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 15.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.20% | ÷0.991 | ×0.600 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 2.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.84% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.36% | ÷1.016 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.57% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 102, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .308 → .202; ISO .126 → .068; BABIP .277 → .179. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).