Kevin Novoa — OGILVIE

Kevin NovoaC DSL Miami

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .290 / .280

PA5

HR0

K%26

BB%8

ISO71

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	36	35	7	1	0	1	0	9	1	0	0	200	222	314	537	114	240	25	0	240	48	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	66	52	15	1	0	0	11	8	3	1	0	288	439	308	747	19	341	12	17	361	131	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2024	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	134	100	25	6	0	0	24	22	8	6	2	250	432	310	742	60	312	16	18	355	126	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	36	35	5	1	0	1	0	13	1	0	0	143	167	257	424	114	188	36	0	149	-13	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	66	56	13	1	0	0	7	11	3	1	0	232	348	250	598	18	286	17	11	273	71	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	134	109	20	4	0	0	15	31	8	6	2	183	326	220	546	37	236	23	11	252	57	-7	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	36	35	5	1	0	1	0	13	1	0	0	143	167	257	424	114	190	36	0	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	36	35	7	1	0	1	0	9	1	0	0	200	222	314	537	114	240	25	0	240	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	66	56	13	1	0	0	7	11	3	1	0	232	348	250	598	18	289	17	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	66	52	15	1	0	0	11	8	3	1	0	288	439	308	747	19	341	12	17	361	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	134	109	20	4	0	0	15	31	8	6	2	183	326	220	546	37	250	23	11	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	134	100	25	6	0	0	24	22	8	6	2	250	432	310	742	60	312	16	18	355	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	36	35	5	1	0	1	0	13	1	0	0	143	167	257	424	114	188	36	0	149	-13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	66	56	13	1	0	0	7	11	3	1	0	232	348	250	598	18	286	17	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	134	110	20	4	0	0	15	31	8	6	2	182	326	218	544	36	236	23	11	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	66	56	13	1	0	0	7	11	3	1	0	232	348	250	598	18	286	17	11	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	134	110	20	4	0	0	15	31	8	6	2	182	326	218	544	36	236	23	11	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		288	20	0	266	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	117	104	23	4	1	1	10	30	2	2	0	221	302	308	609	87	289	26	9	276	73	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	253	225	50	8	1	4	21	65	5	4	1	222	303	320	623	98	291	26	8	283	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+5	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	351	312	71	12	2	6	30	89	6	5	1	228	307	337	644	109	292	25	9	288	81	-8	+1	+0	+6	+8	0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	412	367	83	14	2	7	35	104	7	6	1	226	306	332	638	106	292	25	8	291	83	-8	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	449	400	90	15	2	8	38	113	8	6	2	225	305	333	637	108	292	25	8	293	84	-8	+0	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	467	416	93	15	2	9	40	118	8	7	2	224	304	334	638	111	292	25	9	293	84	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	475	423	95	16	2	9	41	120	8	6	2	225	305	336	641	111	291	25	9	292	84	-9	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	473	421	93	15	2	8	41	121	8	6	2	221	302	323	625	102	290	26	9	290	82	-10	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	467	415	92	15	2	8	41	121	8	5	1	222	304	325	629	104	289	26	9	287	80	-11	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	442	392	86	14	2	7	39	115	8	4	1	219	303	319	622	99	287	26	9	283	78	-12	+0	-3	+8	+10	0.3
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	414	368	78	12	2	6	36	110	7	3	1	212	294	304	599	92	283	27	9	278	74	-13	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.0
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	374	333	70	11	2	5	32	101	6	2	1	210	291	300	591	90	279	27	9	271	70	-14	+0	-4	+7	+8	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	40	36	7	1	0	0	3	10	1	1	0	194	275	222	497	28	282	25	8	256	73	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	123	110	25	4	1	2	10	31	2	2	0	227	303	336	640	109	283	25	8	264	78	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	185	164	36	6	1	3	16	47	3	3	1	220	301	323	624	104	284	25	9	269	81	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	225	200	44	7	1	4	19	57	4	3	1	220	300	325	625	105	284	25	8	272	83	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	250	223	49	8	1	4	21	63	4	4	1	220	298	318	617	99	284	25	8	273	84	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	257	228	51	8	1	5	22	65	5	4	1	224	306	333	639	110	284	25	9	273	84	-5	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	260	230	51	8	1	5	23	66	5	4	1	222	306	330	637	109	284	25	9	272	84	-5	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	252	224	49	8	1	4	22	64	4	3	1	219	300	317	617	98	283	25	9	270	82	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	245	218	46	7	1	4	21	63	4	3	1	211	292	307	600	96	282	26	9	268	80	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	230	204	44	7	1	4	20	60	4	2	1	216	298	319	617	103	279	26	9	264	78	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.2
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	215	190	40	6	1	3	19	57	4	2	0	211	296	300	596	89	276	27	9	259	74	-7	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.0
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	193	171	35	5	1	3	17	52	3	1	0	205	288	298	586	94	272	27	9	253	70	-7	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2475	2198	477	75	11	41	213	635	43	32	8	217	299	317	616	100	284	26	9	267	79	-58	+3	-8	+44	+54	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	126	20	3	11	56	167	11	8	2	218	300	321	620	102	286	26	9	267	79	-15	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4935	4381	963	157	22	79	426	1263	93	63	17	220	302	320	622	100	289	26	9	284	79	-112	+5	-15	+84	+102	6.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	127	21	3	10	56	166	12	8	2	220	302	319	621	99	290	26	9	284	79	-15	+1	-2	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.8	2,544	43	31	222	300	326	+45	+28	5.5	5.0
/162	664	11	8	+11.9	+7.3	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Novoa (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	209/290/280	71	288	1	1	26%	8%	66	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Javier Valdes 2021 · A	22	40	37→50	50→30	45	190/266/263	73	266	4	7	28%	8%	53	-2.1	211/295/322	111	281	11	5	27%	8%	78	-0.3	208/306/343	135	260	16	3	25%	9%	85	+0.1
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44→43	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	61	-1.5	230/261/332	102	302	9	2	26%	4%	65	-1.2	238/272/346	108	283	9	0	19%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2017 · A	22	36	38→45	46→50	45	179/245/253	75	239	5	10	26%	7%	42	-2.9	198/277/298	100	282	8	10	30%	8%	65	-1.2	201/298/325	124	262	10	12	25%	10%	77	-0.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→45	49→55	47	200/278/275	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	60	-1.6	192/289/299	107	272	9	9	30%	11%	70	-0.8	219/309/345	126	268	10	25	21%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Jose Sibrian 2021 · A	22	43	38→50	49→30	39	204/261/283	79	291	5	6	30%	6%	55	-2.0	204/258/283	79	271	6	3	26%	5%	54	-2.0	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7
✕Devin Mann 2019 · A	22	44	38→50	46→45	48	208/284/291	83	279	5	9	26%	9%	65	-1.2	218/288/366	148	285	17	7	28%	8%	84	+0.2	210/294/364	154	277	16	4	29%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→43	39→45	46→40	43	214/262/293	80	273	7	6	24%	6%	57	-1.8	225/298/328	103	300	8	4	26%	8%	80	-0.2	218/296/319	101	289	9	2	26%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	205/264/287	82	287	5	8	29%	5%	57	-1.8	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	33	-3.6	143/191/216	73	246	8	0	44%	5%	11	-1.5
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→48	39→45	48→50	45	182/274/268	86	264	6	10	31%	8%	58	-1.7	206/278/301	95	283	7	11	28%	7%	66	-1.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Ramon Mendoza 2023 · A	22	40→49	37→45	48→45	44	187/265/261	75	278	4	7	32%	8%	52	-2.2	212/285/310	98	296	8	5	29%	8%	70	-0.8	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Jakson Reetz 2017 · A	21	44→33	39→55	47→45	44	205/289/298	94	298	5	6	31%	8%	70	-0.8	198/275/298	100	292	9	5	33%	7%	65	-1.2	193/274/380	187	243	23	4	31%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2021 · A	21	44	37→50	45→40	42	208/272/281	73	279	3	5	26%	6%	59	-1.7	212/288/322	110	284	11	5	28%	7%	75	-0.5	180/260/332	152	234	22	0	33%	7%	72	-0.3
✕David Bote 2014 · A	21	39→49	39→50	47→45	48	188/267/275	87	259	6	7	28%	9%	56	-1.9	205/271/295	90	278	6	6	27%	6%	62	-1.4	237/312/394	157	303	18	6	26%	8%	96	+0.8
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Aramis Garcia 2015 · A	22	44→41	38→50	49→45	45	208/269/290	82	284	4	6	27%	7%	59	-1.6	212/265/333	121	287	14	3	30%	6%	68	-1.0	213/254/350	137	283	17	0	31%	4%	65	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→50	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	52	-2.2	204/247/318	114	284	10	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps