Kevin Novoa — OGILVIE

Kevin NovoaC DSL Miami

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 175 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .290 / .279

PA68

HR1

K%26

BB%8

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$18M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	36	35	4	1	0	0	0	13	1	0	0	114	139	143	282	29	182	36	0	142	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	36	35	7	1	0	1	0	9	1	0	0	200	222	314	537	114	240	25	0	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	66	56	14	1	0	0	7	11	3	1	0	250	364	268	631	18	311	17	11	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	66	52	15	1	0	0	11	8	3	1	0	288	439	308	747	19	341	12	17	361	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	134	109	19	3	0	0	15	31	8	6	2	174	318	202	520	28	237	23	11	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	134	100	25	6	0	0	24	22	8	6	2	250	432	310	742	60	312	16	18	355	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	MIA	—	68	61	13	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	213	294	295	589	82	288	26	9	266	62	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIA	34%	117	104	23	4	1	1	10	30	2	2	0	221	302	308	609	87	290	26	9	276	69	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2028	23	MLB	MIA	48%	253	225	50	8	1	4	21	64	5	4	1	222	303	320	623	98	291	25	8	283	75	-7	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.5
2029	24	MLB	MIA	53%	351	312	70	11	2	6	30	89	6	5	1	224	305	330	635	106	292	25	9	288	79	-8	+1	+0	+6	+10	0.9
2030	25	MLB	MIA	55%	412	367	82	13	2	7	35	104	7	6	1	223	303	327	630	104	292	25	8	291	81	-9	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.1
2031	26	MLB	MIA	56%	449	400	90	15	2	8	38	113	8	6	2	225	305	333	637	108	292	25	8	293	82	-9	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.2
2032	27	MLB	MIA	55%	467	416	94	15	2	9	40	118	8	7	2	226	306	337	643	111	292	25	9	293	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2033	28	MLB	MIA	55%	475	423	95	15	2	9	41	120	8	6	2	225	305	333	638	109	291	25	9	292	81	-10	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.2
2034	29	MLB	MIA	53%	473	421	93	15	2	8	41	121	8	6	2	221	302	323	625	102	291	26	9	290	80	-11	+0	-1	+8	+13	1.0
2035	30	MLB	MIA	53%	467	415	91	14	2	8	41	120	8	5	1	219	302	320	622	101	289	26	9	287	78	-12	+1	-2	+8	+13	0.9
2027	22	MLB	MIA	34%	40	36	7	1	0	0	3	10	1	1	0	194	275	222	497	28	285	25	8	259	56	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	23	MLB	MIA	48%	123	110	25	4	1	2	10	31	2	2	0	227	303	336	640	109	286	25	8	266	62	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	24	MLB	MIA	53%	185	164	37	6	1	3	16	47	3	3	1	226	306	329	635	104	287	25	9	271	66	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB	MIA	55%	225	200	44	7	1	4	19	57	4	3	1	220	300	325	625	105	287	25	8	274	68	-8	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2031	26	MLB	MIA	56%	250	223	50	8	1	5	21	63	4	4	1	224	302	336	639	112	287	25	8	276	69	-9	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2032	27	MLB	MIA	55%	257	228	51	8	1	5	22	65	5	4	1	224	306	333	639	110	287	25	9	276	69	-9	+0	+0	+5	+7	0.3
2033	28	MLB	MIA	55%	260	230	51	8	1	5	23	66	5	4	1	222	306	330	637	109	287	25	9	275	68	-9	+0	-0	+5	+7	0.3
2034	29	MLB	MIA	53%	252	224	49	8	1	4	22	64	4	3	1	219	300	317	617	98	286	25	9	273	67	-9	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.2
2035	30	MLB	MIA	53%	245	218	47	7	1	4	21	63	4	3	1	216	296	312	608	96	284	26	9	270	65	-10	+0	-1	+4	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1837	1633	361	57	8	32	157	466	32	27	7	221	302	325	626	103	288	25	9	273	67	-69	+3	-2	+33	+52	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	127	20	3	11	56	165	11	10	2	220	301	322	623	102	286	25	9	273	67	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	3768	3344	738	117	16	61	325	952	73	55	14	221	304	320	624	99	288	25	9	286	77	-98	+5	-4	+67	+107	7.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	128	20	3	11	56	164	13	9	2	222	305	324	629	102	289	25	9	286	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	36	35	7	1	1	0	9	1	0	0	200	222	314	537	114	240	25	0	240	42	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	66	52	15	1	0	11	8	3	1	0	288	439	308	747	19	341	12	17	361	135	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2024	19	ROK	DSL Miami	—	134	100	25	6	0	24	22	8	6	2	250	432	310	742	60	312	16	18	355	130	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	1,905	33	26	225	303	331	+34	+24	4.5	4.3
	/162	664	11	9	225	303	331	+11.9	+8.4	1.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Novoa (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	209/290/279	70	288	1	1	26%	8%	62	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2021 · A	21	44	37→55	45→40	42	208/272/281	73	279	3	5	26%	6%	53	-1.5	212/289/325	113	282	11	5	27%	7%	73	-0.1	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	44→45	41→50	48→50	51	208/295/315	107	257	6	8	21%	9%	72	-0.2	200/283/336	136	266	14	9	29%	8%	74	-0.1	221/296/357	136	275	13	8	23%	7%	81	+0.2
✕Bryan Lavastida 2021 · A	22	47→44	38→45	46→55	46	221/291/303	81	299	5	8	26%	8%	66	-0.6	220/287/340	120	289	12	13	26%	7%	75	-0.0	219/292/337	118	281	12	27	25%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Stevie Berman 2017 · A	22	45	37→50	48→40	45	212/278/285	72	281	4	6	25%	7%	57	-1.2	213/271/299	86	269	7	4	22%	6%	57	-1.2	203/292/318	115	246	13	2	22%	9%	70	-0.1
✕Carlos Narváez 2021 · A	22	47→45	38→50	48→45	46	219/291/300	81	314	5	6	30%	9%	66	-0.6	193/280/309	116	304	13	5	37%	10%	66	-0.6	212/294/349	136	285	16	6	29%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Jakson Reetz 2017 · A	21	45→31	39→60	47→45	45	210/296/302	93	306	5	6	30%	8%	70	-0.3	199/275/297	98	295	9	5	33%	7%	59	-1.1	196/276/392	196	242	25	4	30%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	41→40	46→45	48	206/290/308	102	278	8	6	27%	9%	69	-0.4	221/302/309	88	318	7	6	30%	9%	74	-0.1	242/332/316	74	335	8	6	27%	10%	86	+0.3
✕Geoandry Montilla 2017 · A	21	44	41→45	45→50	46	214/281/315	101	286	8	9	27%	8%	66	-0.6	197/264/296	99	314	8	8	37%	7%	54	-1.4	131/203/233	101	238	8	7	45%	7%	11	-1.2
✕Blake Ochoa 2007 · A	21	45	40→45	46→40	44	215/280/308	92	280	6	5	24%	6%	64	-0.8	216/268/311	95	281	7	4	24%	6%	59	-1.1	233/296/376	142	280	16	2	22%	7%	87	+0.3
✕Juan Uriarte 2019 · A	21	46	41→45	49→30	41	223/277/320	96	282	8	4	23%	5%	65	-0.7	186/228/266	80	283	6	4	35%	3%	30	-3.1	145/181/205	60	226	4	0	37%	2%	-9	-1.6
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕José Caballero 2018 · A	21	47→45	39→45	54→70	39	224/275/317	93	301	6	7	27%	5%	63	-0.8	223/291/334	111	281	10	19	23%	7%	76	+0.0	225/318/339	114	299	10	63	26%	9%	86	+0.5
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	45	38→40	42→45	47	212/273/289	77	273	5	5	23%	7%	56	-1.3	200/258/270	70	282	5	5	29%	7%	44	-2.1	202/252/250	48	271	3	6	25%	6%	33	-0.9
✕Dustin Garneau 2010 · A	22	44→37	39→50	51→45	47	210/289/298	89	279	6	6	25%	8%	66	-0.6	198/266/315	117	251	10	5	24%	7%	59	-1.1	171/262/347	177	214	22	1	31%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→47	39→55	49→30	44	205/276/287	82	282	6	6	28%	7%	56	-1.3	210/273/295	85	266	7	4	22%	7%	57	-1.2	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Ricardo Hurtado 2023 · A	20	43	36→45	47→40	54	196/312/270	74	246	3	7	19%	10%	71	-0.3	190/286/298	108	283	10	4	34%	9%	66	-0.6	174/281/288	113	266	12	2	36%	10%	59	-0.5
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	45	39→45	47→45	51	215/298/306	91	267	6	8	21%	9%	71	-0.3	200/293/314	114	279	11	5	29%	11%	72	-0.2	179/275/290	111	249	12	4	31%	11%	56	-0.7
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2