Alfred Morillo
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
K%20.7%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 38 | 174 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 6.7% | 0.7% | 4.54 | 3.51 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 38 | 174 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.7% | 12.1% | 16.7% | 0.6% | 4.54 | 2.46 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 48 | 234 | 62 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 16.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 4.50 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 48 | 234 | 62 | 33 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 14.1% | 12.4% | 0.9% | 4.50 | 3.12 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 34 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 45 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 15.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 2.41 | 4.97 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 34 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 45 | 21 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.2% | 13.6% | 15.6% | 1.9% | 2.41 | 3.42 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 271 | 60 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 5.1% | 0.8% | 4.92 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 60 | 271 | 60 | 34 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 0.7% | 4.92 | 3.23 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 30 | 0 | 33 | 161 | 34 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 15.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 6.00 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 35 | 0 | 36 | 154 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 70 | 315 | 66 | 41 | 6 | — | — | 20.9% | 12.9% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 5.24 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.56 | 4.18 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.03 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 94 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 4.45 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 174 | 0 | 216 | 994 | 195 | 148 | 13 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 0 | 200 | 919 | 180 | 137 | 12 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alfred Morillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.4% | — | 4.40 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 37 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 94 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 91 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 91 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 91 |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.38 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.1% | .319 | 4.85 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.47 | 4.38 | 132 | 90 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.4% | .331 | 4.29 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.06 | 3.44 | 213 | 89 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 89 |
| Jay Driver R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 89 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.63 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .282 | 3.31 | 22.5% | 16.6% | 72 | -0.32 | 2.25 | 121 | 89 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 1.5% | .305 | 6.14 | 17.8% | 4.9% | 107 | +2.60 | 3.54 | 153 | 88 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 88 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 88 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.73 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .298 | 3.84 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 186 | 88 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.73 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.95 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +1.22 | 2.65 | 304 | 87 |
| Logan VanWey R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.2% | .301 | 4.32 | 26.4% | 12.7% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.63 | 172 | 87 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 87 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 87 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.12 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.89 | 2.88 | 312 | 87 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .304 | 4.55 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.10 | 3.45 | 289 | 87 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 21.0% | 11.6% | 0.92 | 4.50 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |