Alfred Morillo
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2028
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%8.6%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 25 | 0 | 38 | 174 | 50 | 21 | 1 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 0.7% | 4.54 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 40 | 0 | 48 | 234 | 62 | 33 | 2 | 19.8% | 16.6% | 1.1% | 4.50 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 34 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 45 | 21 | 3 | 22.5% | 15.7% | 2.8% | 2.41 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Reno Aces | 45 | 0 | 60 | 271 | 60 | 34 | 2 | 18.5% | 13.4% | 0.8% | 4.92 | 3.66 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 4 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 5 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 24.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 46 | 27 | 5 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.3% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 56 | 254 | 51 | 34 | 6 | 19.9% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 5.98 | 4.22 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 48 | 25 | 5 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 48 | 24 | 5 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 4.39 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 48 | 24 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 4.38 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 48 | 24 | 5 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 46 | 23 | 5 | 21.6% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 44 | 23 | 5 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 2.6% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 42 | 22 | 5 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 40 | 22 | 5 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 43 | — | 43 | 183 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 35 | 20 | 5 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 33 | 19 | 5 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 4.91 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 5.04 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 0 | 187 | 867 | 172 | 131 | 11 | 19.9% | 15.1% | 1.3% | 4.66 | 4.05 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 158 | 0 | 200 | 926 | 184 | 140 | 12 | 19.9% | 15.1% | 1.3% | 4.66 | 4.05 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alfred Morillo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 2.3% | — | 4.37 | 21.6% | 10.7% | 158 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 96 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 95 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 93 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.78 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .294 | 3.31 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.47 | 2.87 | 223 | 92 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 91 |
| Aaron Kurcz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.00 | 22.4% | 13.6% | 2.0% | .331 | 4.03 | 16.1% | 8.0% | 105 | +0.03 | 3.31 | 213 | 91 |
| Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.58 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 2.9% | .341 | 4.72 | 15.7% | 4.0% | 343 | +0.14 | 4.04 | 404 | 91 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.51 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .293 | 7.98 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.47 | 4.42 | 155 | 91 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.74 | 22.7% | 13.6% | 1.5% | .270 | 4.00 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 94 | +0.26 | 3.60 | 154 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.65 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .282 | 4.58 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 105 | +0.93 | 2.57 | 304 | 90 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .287 | 3.96 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 143 | -0.28 | 3.84 | 206 | 89 |
| Trevor Holloway R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.44 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 1.3% | .266 | 4.55 | 17.9% | 6.1% | 43 | +1.11 | 3.44 | 112 | 89 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.73 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 104 | 89 |
| Guido Knudson R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.50 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.4% | .255 | 4.70 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 47 | +1.20 | 3.50 | 106 | 89 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.56 | 18.5% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .237 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.7% | 56 | +0.44 | 4.56 | 120 | 89 |
| Bud Jeter R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.71 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .318 | 3.65 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 101 | -0.06 | 3.12 | 226 | 89 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .309 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.62 | 2.78 | 312 | 89 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 88 |
| Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.54 | 22.7% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .315 | 4.14 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 50 | +0.60 | 2.36 | 229 | 88 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $6M | +$2M | ||