Alfred Morillo — OGILVIE

Alfred Morillo P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 36 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%18.7%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	38	174	50	21	1	0%	1.5	20.7%	14.0%	6.7%	0.7%	4.54	3.53	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	38	174	50	21	1	0%	1.5	28.7%	12.1%	16.7%	0.6%	4.54	2.46	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	48	234	62	33	2	0%	1.2	19.8%	16.6%	3.2%	1.1%	4.50	4.14	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	48	234	62	33	2	0%	1.2	19.8%	16.6%	3.2%	1.1%	4.50	4.14	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	48	234	62	33	2	0%	1.2	26.5%	14.1%	12.4%	0.9%	4.50	3.12	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	37	154	45	21	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.7%	6.8%	2.8%	2.41	4.71	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	37	154	45	21	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.7%	6.8%	2.8%	2.41	4.71	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	37	154	45	21	3	0%	1.1	29.2%	13.6%	15.6%	1.9%	2.41	3.42	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	271	60	34	2	0%	1.3	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	0.8%	4.92	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	60	271	60	34	2	0%	1.3	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	0.8%	4.92	3.56	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	60	271	60	34	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	12.5%	9.6%	0.7%	4.92	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	47	0	50	239	56	30	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.90	5.18	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	47	0	50	239	56	30	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	13.8%	5.2%	3.5%	5.90	5.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	47	0	50	239	56	30	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	12.6%	10.9%	2.9%	5.90	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	55	232	46	27	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	11.7%	8.1%	2.4%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	55	232	48	27	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	2.4%	4.58	4.54	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	54	229	47	26	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.5%	9.2%	2.5%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	23	0	24	101	20	12	2	0%	1.0	19.9%	11.7%	8.1%	2.4%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	35	0	37	156	32	18	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.5%	9.0%	2.4%	4.58	4.54	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	37	20	4	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.5%	9.2%	2.5%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	0	103	435	89	50	11	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	2.4%	4.60	4.18	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	97	21	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.5%	8.9%	2.4%	4.60	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		191	0	234	1072	211	154	19	0%	1.2	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	1.7%	4.58	4.21	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	0	200	918	181	132	16	0%	1.2	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	1.7%	4.58	4.21	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alfred Morillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	18.7%	13.0%	2.3%	—	4.57	20.3%	8.8%	164	-0.25	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	93
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	91
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	88
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	88
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	88
Matt Lollis R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	4.95	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.39	4.56	120	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	87
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	87
Armando Ruiz R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	24	SU	4.26	18.4%	11.4%	2.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	113	87
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.36	16.0%	6.0%	107	-0.80	3.20	213	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	87
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	87
Malcom Culver R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	25	SU	3.67	18.3%	12.2%	1.0%	.327	3.37	17.7%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.24	163	86
Nick Mikolajchak R 2022 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	20.8%	13.9%	1.6%	.267	5.30	14.2%	2.1%	66	+1.34	3.96	168	86
Pat Light R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	20.9%	14.5%	2.1%	.270	4.37	16.4%	2.8%	110	+0.03	4.10	172	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	20.0%	11.8%	0.94	4.65
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82