Jorger Petri
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
+0.1
WAR
Age 21
LHP
5'10" / 155 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2031
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.6%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 16 | 2 | 25 | 127 | 24 | 16 | 4 | 12.9% | 15.7% | 4.4% | 6.75 | 6.44 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 165 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 13.2% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 4.08 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 11 | 10 | 43 | 173 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 0.7% | 2.93 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 28 | 0 | 44 | 194 | 50 | 25 | 3 | 19.1% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 4.33 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 3 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.35 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | DET | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 34 | 16 | 4 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | DET | — | — | 43 | 178 | 43 | 18 | 4 | 24.1% | 10.2% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | DET | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 23.9% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.14 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | DET | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.13 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 171 | 43 | 15 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | DET | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 25.0% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 24.9% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | DET | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | DET | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | DET | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.22 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | DET | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.41 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 21 | 154 | 684 | 115 | 86 | 13 | 16.9% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 4.15 | 4.33 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 27 | 200 | 888 | 149 | 112 | 17 | 16.9% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 4.15 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jorger Petri (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 23.9% | 14.7% | 118 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Destin Dotson L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 5.76 | 23.0% | 3.1% | 48 | +1.87 | 2.90 | 113 | 89 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 88 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.88 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.08 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.20 | 3.72 | 294 | 87 |
| Denny Bentley L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 87 |
| Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.59 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | .364 | 4.01 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.58 | 4.01 | 101 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 86 |
| Hogan Harris L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.82 | 20.5% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.70 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 74 | -0.12 | 3.15 | 442 | 85 |
| Seth Clark L 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.22 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.0% | .287 | 5.22 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +1.00 | 4.22 | 128 | 85 |
| Manuel Medina L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 4.4% | .319 | 2.81 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 78 | -2.23 | 1.26 | 157 | 84 |
| Develson Aria L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.09 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .346 | 6.46 | 16.7% | -11.9% | 47 | +2.37 | 4.09 | 137 | 84 |
| Yenfri Sosa L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.45 | 21.7% | 14.3% | 2.5% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 128 | 84 |
| Vance Tatum L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.07 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.03 | 4.89 | 116 | 83 |
| Jake Higginbotham L 2027 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .256 | 4.71 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 59 | -0.44 | 3.37 | 323 | 83 |
| Abdallah Aris L 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 109 | 83 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .346 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 271 | +0.00 | 4.23 | 387 | 83 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2028 · 3.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.87 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | .366 | 4.21 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.34 | 3.37 | 208 | 83 |
| James Ziemba L 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.73 | 18.3% | 12.5% | 1.1% | .309 | 5.18 | 11.7% | -0.7% | 78 | +1.45 | 3.73 | 110 | 83 |
| Brendan Nail L 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.87 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .305 | 3.85 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -1.02 | 3.49 | 165 | 82 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.64 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .286 | 3.46 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 142 | -1.18 | 2.95 | 186 | 82 |
| Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||