Francisco ToledoC St. Lucie Mets
Age 21 R/R 5'9" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
2026 ROS PROJECTION106 act + 70 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†43
AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .255 / .263
PA70
HR1
K%31
BB%7
BABIP264
ISO77
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -14.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-14BATRUN: -0.6 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +5.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.70-0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.20.30.3+$6M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 38
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT37
scouting grade only
POWER38
scouting grade only
EYE53
scouting grade only
SPEED50
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.9M $0.8M +$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL Mets 2 — 4643 10111 2101 41 233283372655 140281 224 259 56 — — — — — —
202217 ROKDSL Mets 2 — 4641 12111 471 41 293370439809 146333 159 362 135 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Mets — 10495 17100 8331 10 179250189439 11274 328 199 11 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Mets — 10489 20100 14221 10 225337236572 11299 2113 279 71 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Mets — 8072 11200 8180 01 153237181418 28204 2210 202 13 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Mets — 8068 15300 12130 01 221338265602 44273 1615 289 79 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 ANYM — 10698 14302 7381 32 143208235442 92207 367 209 18 -10 -0 +0 +2 +3 -0.5
YTD21 ANYM — 10696 18403 9271 32 188264323587 135227 258 267 63 -4 -0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
ROS21 ANYM 0% 7064 12201 5221 11 186255263518 77262 317 242 43 -5 -0 +0 +1 +2 -0.2
ROS21 MLBNYM 0% 01 0000 000 00 —— 262 —— 235 38 — — +0 +0 — —
FULL21 ANYM — 10699 14302 7381 32 141208232440 91203 367 209 18 -10 -0 +0 +2 +3 -0.5
TOT21 ANYM — 176162 26503 12602 43 160226246472 86231 347 222 28 -14 -0 +0 +3 +5 -0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBNYM 34% 235214 42814 17702 31 196262299561 103268 307 255 54 -12 +0 +0 +4 +7 -0.1
202823 MLBNYM 48% 339308 621126 25983 52 201268308576 107271 297 263 59 -16 +0 +0 +6 +10 0.0
202924 MLBNYM 53% 410372 761428 311174 62 204273317590 113273 298 268 63 -17 +0 +0 +7 +12 0.2
203025 MLBNYM 55% 450409 841529 341284 62 205273318591 112274 288 270 65 -18 +0 +0 +8 +13 0.3
203126 MLBNYM 56% 473430 8816210 361344 73 205272321593 116274 288 270 65 -19 +0 +0 +8 +13 0.3
202722 MLBNYM 34% 8174 14301 6241 10 189259270530 81268 307 248 48 -5 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.1
202823 MLBNYM 48% 164150 30513 12481 21 200264307570 107271 297 256 54 -9 +0 +0 +3 +5 -0.1
202924 MLBNYM 53% 216196 40714 16622 31 204271311582 107273 297 261 58 -10 +0 +0 +4 +6 -0.0
203025 MLBNYM 55% 246223 45815 19702 31 202270314584 112274 288 263 59 -11 +0 +0 +4 +7 0.0
203126 MLBNYM 56% 263239 49915 20752 41 205272314586 109273 298 263 59 -12 +0 +0 +5 +7 0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 970883 17832418 732798 134 202269308577 106271 298 260 57 -47 +1 +0 +17 +27 -0.1
/ 162G— — 650592 11921312 491875 93 201268307576 106270 298 260 57 -31 +1 +0 +12 +18 -0.1
Career— — 22072007 402701039 16663020 3313 200268303571 103269 298 260 57 -107 +1 +0 +39 +63 -0.4
/ 162G— — 650591 11821311 491856 104 200268301569 102269 288 260 57 -32 +0 +0 +12 +18 -0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL Mets 2 — 4641 12111 471 41 293370439809 146333 159 362 135 +2 +0 — — +1 0.4
202419 ROKFCL Mets — 10489 20100 14221 10 225337236572 11299 2113 279 71 -3 +0 — — +3 -0.0
202520 ROKFCL Mets — 8068 15300 12130 01 221338265602 44273 1615 289 79 -2 -0 — — +2 -0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA
91,648311209276313+29+566.46.7
/162664120+11.9+22.42.6pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09
career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA
91,844192219297308+17+525.65.8
/16266471+6.1+18.72.0pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22
career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA
61,5403047225280350+4+334.24.2
/1626641320+1.8+14.41.8pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA
71,680226230279335+9+212.02.0
/16266492+3.7+8.50.8pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons
31,0802115205270316+19+120.30.4
/162664139+11.9+7.40.2pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17
career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA
71,9012139231275323+14-6-1.1-1.1
/162664714+4.9-2.1-0.4pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Francisco Toledo (OGILVIE) 21 32→37 33→38 45→50 53 160/226/246 86231 34 34% 7% 28 -0.7 ————————— —————————
✕Steven Baron
2012 · A 		21 33 40→45 45→50 36 171/214/256 85249 77 34% 5% 21 -3.7 187/224/281 94269 69 32% 4% 32 -3.0 240/300/311713265626%7%68-0.2
✕Deivi Mejia
2011 · A 		21 40 39→40 43→30 44 193/264/278 85266 75 29% 8% 50 -1.8 212/259/304 92276 74 25% 4% 53 -1.5 224/268/311872676118%3%59-0.4
✕Geovanny Planchart
2023 · A 		21 41 36→40 50→40 46 190/271/255 65295 35 34% 10% 46 -2.0 197/283/279 82287 54 30% 10% 58 -1.2 185/278/265802636229%11%51-0.7
✕Willy Diaz
2015 · A 		21 36 36→40 45→40 46 170/263/235 65253 45 32% 9% 40 -2.4 187/263/267 80309 54 37% 8% 46 -2.0 184/258/270863085239%8%42-0.8
✕Luis Palacios
2010 · A 		21 39 39→40 46→50 36 192/235/276 84265 75 30% 4% 36 -2.7 190/239/268 78302 57 36% 5% 35 -2.8 130/184/163322250640%6%-19-1.1
✕Arturo De Freitas
2022 · A 		21 43 38→45 50→40 39 204/264/287 82286 58 29% 5% 51 -1.7 173/225/248 75289 74 40% 6% 24 -3.5 136/184/191552335042%5%-10-2.1
✕Aaron McKeithan
2022 · A 		22 40 38→40 49→40 40 194/261/274 80272 67 29% 6% 47 -1.9 217/294/301 84283 84 25% 7% 69 -0.4 216/298/285692797123%7%66-0.3
✕Claudio Finol
2022 · A 		22 40 39→40 46→45 40 193/251/277 85270 56 30% 6% 43 -2.2 194/250/277 83275 79 30% 6% 43 -2.2 181/246/2587726091232%7%35-0.7
✕Victor Duarte
2022 · A 		21 39 38→30 48→45 42 188/251/269 81260 67 29% 6% 42 -2.3 199/274/280 81291 66 31% 8% 55 -1.4 183/255/2506625161127%8%37-0.7
✕Rey Duran
2009 · A 		20 36 41→50 49→40 41 183/243/277 94256 96 31% 6% 40 -2.4 213/267/338 125268 145 25% 6% 66 -0.6 210/263/34913924619223%5%65-0.3
✕Jordyn Adams
2021 · A 		21 40 40→45 47→60 41 196/258/286 91287 89 33% 7% 49 -1.8 189/245/281 92306 824 38% 6% 41 -2.3 186/248/297110286132638%7%45-1.1
✕Blake Hunt
2021 · A 		22 41 39→50 49→40 43 198/254/288 90263 66 26% 6% 47 -1.9 192/251/307 115278 124 34% 6% 52 -1.6 207/268/34113426314226%6%65-0.3
✕Tomás Nido
2015 · A 		21 44 39→45 49→30 43 212/267/299 87285 67 27% 6% 56 -1.3 233/264/343 110303 112 26% 4% 65 -0.7 240/274/3511112889019%4%69-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo
2016 · A 		21 36 38→45 41→50 47 177/258/254 77247 57 29% 9% 41 -2.3 190/264/281 91260 710 28% 8% 50 -1.7 184/261/2809623981325%8%47-0.7
✕Ricardo Valencia
2014 · A 		21 41 39→40 48→30 44 199/265/283 84277 64 29% 7% 51 -1.7 208/278/307 99291 85 29% 8% 63 -0.9 200/254/285852998034%6%45-0.7
✕Abrahan Gutierrez
2021 · A 		21 44→45 40 46→40 43 215/264/301 87273 86 24% 6% 54 -1.4 227/296/326 99305 84 26% 8% 75 -0.0 220/294/315952958226%8%68-0.2
✕Chris Roller
2018 · A 		21 37 37→50 53→55 45 178/254/255 77243 412 27% 8% 40 -2.4 208/276/322 114297 811 31% 7% 66 -0.6 179/262/313134284161640%8%57-0.7
✕Christian Cerda
2023 · A 		20 40→37 40 50→40 50 194/278/287 93254 69 25% 9% 58 -1.2 189/282/293 104252 114 27% 11% 62 -0.9 173/268/27510122312227%11%50-1.2
✕Jose Cordoba
2023 · A 		20 37 41→45 44→55 39 187/251/282 95271 109 33% 6% 46 -2.0 202/259/294 92279 611 28% 6% 51 -1.7 199/258/2929326841526%6%47-0.8
✕Narbe Cruz
2022 · A 		21 43 37→40 45 41 202/278/276 74302 57 32% 7% 56 -1.3 208/260/292 84290 66 29% 5% 51 -1.7 208/260/295872958631%5%47-0.8