Francisco Toledo

C St. Lucie Mets
Age 22 R/R 5'9" / 160 lbs A H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1531ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419ROKNYM104.225/.337/.2360122—.179/.250/.189
202520ROKNYM80.221/.338/.2650021—.153/.238/.181
202621ANYM118.189/.271/.3113326—.147/.212/.229
2027PROJMLE22MLBNYM228.207/.271/.30133620.0
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBNYM43.206/.270/.30611670.0
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBNYM92.209/.274/.31721710.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed51
Max EV48
Z-Con%48
K%44
Whiff%34
BB%17
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%
CompsFrancisco Acuna (age 22) · Aaron McKeithan (age 22) · Jose Sibrian (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj PA
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .269 / .298
PA73
HR1
K%29
BB%7
ISO93
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.10.20.20.20.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.2$0.5M+$0.0M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M———
2035Arb-1$0.2M———
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $0.8M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Mets 2 — 4641 12111 471 41 293370439809 146333 159 362 43 — — — — — —
202419 ROKFCL Mets — 10489 20100 14221 10 225337236572 11299 2113 279 22 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Mets — 8068 15300 12130 01 221338265602 44273 1615 289 21 — — — — — —
202621 ASt. Lucie Mets — 118106 20403 10292 32 189271311583 123230 258 268 26 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Mets 2 — 4642 8110 391 41 190261262523 71223 207 232 43 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 10495 17100 8331 10 179250189439 11263 328 201 22 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 8072 11200 8190 01 153237181418 28211 2410 199 21 — — — — — —
202621 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 118109 16302 7392 32 147212229441 83215 336 207 26 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Mets 2 — 4642 8110 391 41 190261262523 71242 207 232 43 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Mets 2 — 4641 12111 471 41 293370439809 146333 159 362 43 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 10495 17100 8331 10 179250189439 11274 328 201 22 — — — — — —
202419 ROK RAWFCL Mets — 10489 20100 14221 10 225337236572 11299 2113 279 22 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 8072 11200 8190 01 153237181418 28208 2410 199 21 — — — — — —
202520 ROK RAWFCL Mets — 8068 15300 12130 01 221338265602 44273 1615 289 21 — — — — — —
202621 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 118109 16302 7392 32 147212229441 83206 336 207 26 — — — — — —
202621 A RAWSt. Lucie Mets — 118106 20403 10292 32 189271311583 123230 258 268 26 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Mets 2 — 4642 8110 391 41 190261262523 71223 207 232 43 — — — — — —
202419 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 10494 17100 8331 10 181250191441 11263 328 201 22 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 8072 11200 8190 01 153237181418 28211 2410 199 21 — — — — — —
202621 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 118108 16302 7392 32 148212231443 83215 336 207 26 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 10494 17100 8331 10 181250191441 11263 328 201 22 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Mets — 8072 11200 8190 01 153237181418 28211 2410 199 21 — — — — — —
202621 A MLESt. Lucie Mets — 118108 16302 7392 32 148212231443 83215 336 207 26 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLENYM 0% 228208 42713 16672 31 207271301571 93285 297 259 62 -10 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLENYM 34% 124113 24412 9361 21 212276314590 103287 297 267 67 -5 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.0
202924 MLB MLENYM 46% 199181 40714 14562 31 216280326606 110288 287 273 71 -7 +0 +0 +4 +4 0.1
203025 MLB MLENYM 52% 262239 51915 19732 41 218283335618 116288 287 278 74 -8 +0 +0 +5 +6 0.3
203126 MLB MLENYM 54% 314285 641127 23873 41 220285341627 121288 287 282 77 -9 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.4
203227 MLB MLENYM 54% 338307 681227 25933 41 220286342628 122288 287 282 77 -9 +0 +0 +6 +7 0.5
203328 MLB MLENYM 54% 349317 691227 26973 31 218284337621 119287 287 280 75 -10 +0 -1 +6 +8 0.3
203429 MLB MLENYM 53% 346314 691227 26973 21 216281331612 115285 288 276 73 -11 +0 -1 +6 +7 0.1
203530 MLB MLENYM 57% 340309 671127 25973 11 213278323600 110283 297 271 70 -12 -0 -2 +6 +7 -0.1
202823 MLB CTXNYM 34% 4340 8101 3120 10 206270306576 100278 287 261 67 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.0
202924 MLB CTXNYM 46% 9284 17302 7261 10 209274317591 108279 288 267 71 -3 +0 +0 +2 +2 0.1
203025 MLB CTXNYM 52% 135123 26413 10381 21 212277326603 114279 287 272 74 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.1
203126 MLB CTXNYM 54% 170153 33514 13472 21 214280332612 118279 288 276 77 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.2
203227 MLB CTXNYM 54% 183165 36614 14502 21 214280333613 119279 278 276 77 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.2
203328 MLB CTXNYM 54% 189171 36614 14532 21 212278328607 116278 287 274 75 -6 +0 -0 +3 +4 0.2
203429 MLB CTXNYM 53% 184166 36614 14522 11 210276322597 112276 288 270 73 -6 -0 -1 +3 +4 0.0
203530 MLB CTXNYM 57% 193175 37614 14552 00 207272314586 108274 287 265 70 -7 +0 -1 +3 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 11891077 22937626 8933312 115 213280331611 118280 287 271 67 -37 +0 -2 +21 +26 0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650589 12420314 491827 63 211280326605 115278 288 271 67 -20 +0 -1 +12 +14 0.4
Career— MLE — 26932450 517871449 19875725 3212 211277318595 107282 287 267 67 -75 +2 -4 +42 +51 1.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650591 12521312 481836 83 212278318596 107283 287 267 67 -21 +0 -1 +12 +14 0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASt. Lucie Mets · 118 PAwOBA .261 → .207 (−54)K% 24.6% → 33.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.58%÷1.000×1.360——33.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.47%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0155.94%
HBP% /PA1.69%—×0.780—×1.0151.34%
Singles /BIP16.88%÷1.000×0.920×1.035×1.01516.32%
Doubles /BIP5.19%÷1.000×0.830×1.035×1.0154.53%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×1.035×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP3.90%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0153.16%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .261 → .207; ISO .123 → .093; BABIP .230 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Mets · 80 PAwOBA .282 → .199 (−83)K% 16.2% → 23.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.25%÷1.007×1.440——23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.00%÷0.988×0.620—×0.9959.37%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP21.82%÷0.987×0.820×0.957×0.99517.27%
Doubles /BIP5.45%÷0.989×0.720×0.957×0.9953.78%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.720×0.957×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.927×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .282 → .199; ISO .044 → .030; BABIP .273 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Mets · 104 PAwOBA .273 → .201 (−71)K% 21.2% → 31.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.15%÷0.973×1.440——31.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.46%÷1.068×0.620—×1.0087.87%
HBP% /PA0.96%—×0.720—×1.0080.70%
Singles /BIP28.36%÷0.979×0.820×1.050×1.00825.12%
Doubles /BIP1.49%÷0.952×0.720×1.050×1.0081.19%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.720×1.050×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.974×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 95, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .273 → .201; ISO .011 → .008; BABIP .299 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Mets 2 · 46 PAwOBA .353 → .232 (−121)K% 15.2% → 18.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.22%÷1.000×1.220——18.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.70%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0226.22%
HBP% /PA2.17%—×0.700—×1.0221.56%
Singles /BIP26.47%÷1.000×0.680—×1.02218.41%
Doubles /BIP2.94%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0221.80%
Triples /BIP2.94%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0221.80%
Home runs /BIP2.94%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0221.41%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .353 → .232; ISO .146 → .080; BABIP .333 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).