Alejandro Rios

C ACL D-backs

Age 22 R/R 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	18	ROKDSL Arizona R…	71	.158/.294/.193	0	0	-1	—	.102/.221/.119
2026	21	AARI	34	.100/.206/.100	0	0	-49	—	.032/.118/.032
2026	21	ROKARI	47	.308/.426/.385	0	1	59	—	.214/.298/.262
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBARI	191	.183/.253/.255	2	2	45	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	23	MLBARI	62	.193/.262/.277	1	1	49	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%76

wRC+71

BB%61

wOBA59

K%50

Whiff%30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsArturo De Freitas (age 22) · Justin Twine (age 22) · Chuck Moorman (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .251 / .253

PA90

HR1

K%36

BB%7

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	62	6	2	0	0	5	17	2	0	1	97	188	129	317	32	133	25	7	162	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	57	9	2	0	0	7	15	4	0	1	158	294	193	487	35	200	21	10	236	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	34	30	3	0	0	0	2	19	2	0	0	100	206	100	306		273	56	6	164	-49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	47	39	12	3	0	0	8	10	0	1	0	308	426	385	810	77	414	21	17	374	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	63	4	1	0	0	4	21	2	0	1	63	145	79	224	16	89	30	6	106	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	59	6	1	0	0	5	18	4	0	1	102	221	119	339	17	127	25	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	34	31	1	0	0	0	1	26	2	0	0	32	118	32	150		255	76	3	96	-49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	47	42	9	2	0	0	5	14	0	1	0	214	298	262	560	48	324	30	11	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	63	4	1	0	0	4	21	2	0	1	63	145	79	224	16	95	30	6	106	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	62	6	2	0	0	5	17	2	0	1	97	188	129	317	32	133	25	7	162	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	59	6	1	0	0	5	18	4	0	1	102	221	119	339	17	136	25	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	57	9	2	0	0	7	15	4	0	1	158	294	193	487	35	200	21	10	236	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	81	73	10	2	0	0	6	40	2	1	0	137	222	164	387	27	303	49	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	81	69	15	3	0	0	10	29	2	1	0	217	333	261	594	43	375	36	12	286	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Red	—	69	63	4	1	0	0	4	21	2	0	1	63	145	79	224	16	89	30	6	106	-42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	71	62	6	1	0	0	5	18	4	0	1	97	221	113	333	16	127	25	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	81	73	10	2	0	0	6	40	2	1	0	137	222	164	387	27	295	49	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	81	73	10	2	0	0	6	40	2	1	0	137	222	164	387	27	295	49	7	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	191	173	32	6	1	2	14	69	2	2	1	183	253	255	507	72	289	36	7	235	45	-13	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	180	163	30	5	1	2	13	64	2	2	1	187	257	267	524	79	290	36	7	241	49	-11	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.4
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	62	56	11	2	0	1	5	22	1	1	0	193	262	277	539	84	300	35	8	247	49	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	62	56	11	2	0	1	5	22	1	1	0	196	274	286	560	89	303	35	8	247	23	-4	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	115	21	0	10	52	231	10	10	0	196	272	283	555	87	303	36	8	247	23	-39	+2	+0	+12	+14	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	491	441	65	12	1	3	34	176	11	4	3	147	226	200	426	52	233	36	7	201	23	-17	+0	+0	+5	+6	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	86	16	1	4	45	233	15	5	4	147	227	199	425	51	233	36	7	201	23	-40	+0	+0	+12	+14	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alejandro Rios (OGILVIE)	22	—	—	—	—	181/251/253	72	289	1	1	36%	7%	45	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Arturo De Freitas 2023 · A	22	35	39→40	45→40	34	175/221/253	78	272	7	4	37%	5%	32	-3.6	185/240/265	80	303	8	5	39%	6%	43	-2.8	138/183/216	78	244	10	0	46%	5%	8	-1.0
✕Justin Twine 2018 · A	22	37→33	37→40	47→50	31	179/219/250	71	280	4	7	37%	3%	31	-3.7	213/252/298	85	304	6	10	30%	4%	54	-2.0	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Chuck Moorman 2016 · A	22	36	39→40	44→30	32	178/229/260	82	291	7	5	40%	5%	38	-3.2	191/228/268	77	268	5	3	30%	4%	38	-3.2	183/221/256	73	257	5	0	30%	4%	30	-1.8
✕Cadyn Grenier 2019 · A	22	41→38	39→40	48→50	36	192/247/284	92	313	5	8	38%	6%	49	-2.4	192/263/290	98	321	8	8	39%	8%	58	-1.7	178/263/269	91	284	7	11	36%	9%	52	-1.6
✕Chris Okey 2018 · A	23	34	38→45	48→40	35	169/226/242	74	276	6	5	39%	6%	32	-3.6	182/235/282	100	271	11	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	209/261/309	100	290	9	2	30%	5%	58	-0.5
✕David Masters 2015 · A	22	39→37	36→45	47→40	40	185/251/253	68	279	3	8	33%	7%	45	-2.7	179/238/249	70	242	6	4	27%	6%	38	-3.2	187/256/313	125	256	16	1	32%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	39→36	40	49→55	34	191/235/284	93	286	8	9	35%	4%	45	-2.7	178/229/269	91	272	8	12	36%	5%	40	-3.1	151/206/232	81	230	8	13	37%	5%	21	-2.3
✕Misael Urbina 2024 · A	22	35→32	39→40	47→50	44	172/248/261	89	251	6	9	32%	8%	46	-2.6	189/269/280	91	269	6	9	29%	9%	58	-1.7	182/269/271	88	253	6	9	28%	10%	53	-1.1
✕Juan Zabala 2021 · A	22	40	39→40	48→50	37	189/252/274	85	299	6	6	37%	6%	50	-2.3	213/274/306	93	302	8	13	30%	7%	65	-1.2	205/266/287	81	283	8	16	29%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Maikol Escotto 2024 · A	22	35	41→45	47→50	35	179/230/275	96	276	10	12	38%	5%	42	-2.9	190/232/297	107	275	12	16	34%	4%	47	-2.5	179/219/283	104	251	14	22	34%	4%	37	-1.4
✕Will Banfield 2022 · A	22	32→37	41→50	48→30	34	165/219/258	92	266	9	4	40%	6%	33	-3.6	196/234/319	123	268	14	3	32%	4%	53	-2.1	196/236/312	116	270	13	1	32%	4%	50	-1.4
✕Caleb Hamilton 2017 · A	22	39	38→45	48→45	44	183/266/267	84	289	5	5	36%	9%	54	-2.0	177/255/278	101	266	8	5	34%	9%	52	-2.2	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Julio Carrion 2021 · A	22	39	38→40	50→45	38	186/254/264	79	299	6	6	38%	7%	49	-2.4	181/257/264	83	307	7	5	40%	7%	51	-2.3	157/235/235	78	282	8	3	44%	7%	34	-1.3
✕Edwin Díaz 2018 · A	22	35→33	40→50	46→40	37	175/233/264	89	270	9	3	37%	6%	40	-3.0	181/243/302	121	279	12	4	37%	7%	53	-2.1	156/227/293	137	222	18	5	38%	7%	44	-1.2
✕Dale Burdick 2017 · A	21	38	39→45	49→50	38	178/248/267	88	297	5	7	39%	7%	47	-2.5	179/255/275	96	316	7	8	42%	8%	51	-2.2	146/235/239	93	260	8	8	43%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Ryan Scott 2017 · A	22	33	36→40	47→30	36	159/226/223	64	286	4	5	43%	7%	28	-3.9	165/233/228	63	271	4	4	37%	7%	32	-3.6	132/213/189	57	213	5	2	38%	8%	15	-1.5
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Mikell Granberry 2018 · A	22	37	38→40	46→45	39	180/237/267	86	270	4	6	33%	6%	42	-2.9	212/279/317	105	298	8	7	29%	8%	70	-0.9	218/298/344	126	289	12	7	27%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Izarra 2024 · A	22	40→33	39→40	49→50	34	181/247/264	83	326	7	8	44%	6%	46	-2.6	184/256/269	85	312	7	11	40%	8%	51	-2.3	163/241/233	70	252	5	16	34%	8%	35	-1.4
✕Jairo De La Rosa 2008 · A	22	37→33	39→40	43→45	31	184/217/268	84	284	7	8	37%	4%	34	-3.5	206/242/301	95	306	9	6	34%	4%	51	-2.2	207/238/296	89	297	10	3	33%	4%	45	-1.3