Mairoshendrick Martinus
SS Ontario Tower Buzzers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKLAD | 190 | .211/.284/.373 | 6 | 9 | 7 | — | .128/.180/.227 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/A2 orgs | 420 | .246/.324/.351 | 6 | 20 | 44 | — | .194/.257/.268 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ALAD | 539 | .306/.345/.522 | 21 | 32 | 85 | — | .246/.278/.406 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBLAD | 626 | .204/.246/.327 | 14 | 17 | 59 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBLAD | 172 | .205/.249/.334 | 4 | 5 | 64 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBLAD | 248 | .209/.255/.343 | 7 | 6 | 68 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 211 | 182 | 48 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 47 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 264 | 346 | 467 | 813 | 203 | 306 | 22 | 9 | 349 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 170 | 154 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 234 | 298 | 344 | 642 | 110 | 375 | 38 | 8 | 288 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 190 | 166 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 69 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 373 | 658 | 163 | 296 | 36 | 7 | 284 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 26 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 273 | 385 | 364 | 748 | 91 | 353 | 19 | 15 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 394 | 348 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 106 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 244 | 320 | 351 | 671 | 106 | 325 | 27 | 9 | 301 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | — | 118 | 115 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 270 | 288 | 470 | 758 | 200 | 333 | 29 | 3 | 331 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | — | 421 | 391 | 124 | 25 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 91 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 317 | 361 | 537 | 898 | 220 | 378 | 22 | 5 | 390 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 211 | 187 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 166 | 239 | 267 | 506 | 102 | 199 | 27 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 170 | 159 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 93 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 151 | 196 | 220 | 417 | 69 | 315 | 55 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 190 | 172 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 101 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 128 | 180 | 227 | 407 | 99 | 218 | 53 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 26 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 261 | 346 | 348 | 694 | 87 | 327 | 23 | 12 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 394 | 358 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 146 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 190 | 251 | 263 | 513 | 73 | 287 | 37 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Great Lakes Loons | — | 118 | 116 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 216 | 229 | 353 | 582 | 138 | 305 | 36 | 2 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Ontario Tower Buzzers | — | 421 | 397 | 101 | 19 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 124 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 254 | 292 | 421 | 713 | 166 | 334 | 29 | 3 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 211 | 187 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 166 | 239 | 267 | 506 | 102 | 209 | 27 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 211 | 182 | 48 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 47 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 264 | 346 | 467 | 813 | 203 | 306 | 22 | 9 | 349 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 170 | 159 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 93 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 151 | 196 | 220 | 417 | 69 | 333 | 55 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 170 | 154 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 65 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 234 | 298 | 344 | 642 | 110 | 375 | 38 | 8 | 288 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 190 | 172 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 101 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 128 | 180 | 227 | 407 | 99 | 243 | 53 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 190 | 166 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 69 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 211 | 284 | 373 | 658 | 163 | 296 | 36 | 7 | 284 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 420 | 381 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 153 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 192 | 254 | 260 | 514 | 68 | 299 | 36 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 420 | 370 | 91 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 111 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 246 | 324 | 351 | 676 | 105 | 327 | 26 | 9 | 303 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 513 | 126 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 167 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 246 | 278 | 407 | 685 | 162 | 330 | 31 | 3 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 539 | 506 | 155 | 28 | 9 | 21 | 23 | 125 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 306 | 345 | 522 | 867 | 215 | 369 | 23 | 4 | 377 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 211 | 191 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 56 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 162 | 239 | 262 | 501 | 99 | 199 | 27 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 170 | 159 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 93 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 151 | 196 | 220 | 417 | 69 | 315 | 55 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 190 | 177 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 101 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 124 | 180 | 220 | 401 | 96 | 218 | 53 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 420 | 385 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 153 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 190 | 254 | 257 | 511 | 68 | 289 | 36 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 511 | 126 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 167 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 247 | 278 | 409 | 687 | 162 | 328 | 31 | 3 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 190 | 177 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 101 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 124 | 180 | 220 | 401 | 96 | 218 | 53 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 420 | 385 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 153 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 190 | 254 | 257 | 511 | 68 | 289 | 36 | 7 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 539 | 511 | 126 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 16 | 167 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 247 | 278 | 409 | 687 | 162 | 328 | 31 | 3 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAD | 0% | 626 | 588 | 120 | 21 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 200 | 6 | 17 | 5 | 204 | 246 | 327 | 573 | 124 | 279 | 32 | 4 | 255 | 59 | -31 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAD | 34% | 501 | 468 | 98 | 17 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 155 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 209 | 253 | 339 | 592 | 131 | 281 | 31 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAD | 46% | 537 | 501 | 106 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 163 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 212 | 259 | 348 | 606 | 135 | 282 | 30 | 5 | 269 | 68 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +12 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAD | 52% | 560 | 521 | 111 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 167 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 214 | 263 | 353 | 615 | 138 | 283 | 30 | 5 | 273 | 71 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +12 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAD | 54% | 578 | 537 | 115 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 171 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 216 | 266 | 355 | 621 | 139 | 283 | 30 | 5 | 276 | 73 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAD | 54% | 582 | 540 | 117 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 32 | 170 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 216 | 268 | 355 | 623 | 139 | 283 | 29 | 5 | 277 | 73 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +13 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 54% | 576 | 534 | 115 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 32 | 170 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 215 | 266 | 351 | 617 | 136 | 282 | 30 | 6 | 274 | 72 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +6 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 53% | 562 | 521 | 111 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 167 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 213 | 263 | 345 | 608 | 133 | 281 | 30 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -21 | +1 | -1 | +6 | +12 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 57% | 550 | 510 | 108 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 30 | 166 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 210 | 260 | 338 | 598 | 128 | 279 | 30 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -22 | +0 | -2 | +6 | +12 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAD | 34% | 172 | 160 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 205 | 249 | 334 | 583 | 129 | 274 | 31 | 5 | 259 | 64 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAD | 46% | 248 | 232 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 75 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 209 | 255 | 343 | 598 | 134 | 275 | 30 | 5 | 265 | 68 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAD | 52% | 289 | 269 | 57 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 86 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 211 | 259 | 348 | 607 | 137 | 276 | 30 | 5 | 270 | 71 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAD | 54% | 313 | 290 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 92 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 262 | 350 | 613 | 138 | 276 | 29 | 5 | 272 | 73 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAD | 54% | 316 | 292 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 93 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 213 | 264 | 351 | 615 | 138 | 276 | 29 | 6 | 273 | 73 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 54% | 313 | 290 | 61 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 92 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 211 | 262 | 346 | 609 | 135 | 275 | 29 | 5 | 271 | 72 | -11 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 53% | 298 | 277 | 59 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 89 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 209 | 260 | 341 | 600 | 132 | 274 | 30 | 5 | 267 | 69 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 57% | 313 | 290 | 60 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 94 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 206 | 256 | 334 | 590 | 127 | 273 | 30 | 5 | 263 | 66 | -13 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2262 | 2100 | 443 | 73 | 15 | 61 | 120 | 674 | 22 | 47 | 15 | 211 | 261 | 347 | 608 | 136 | 277 | 30 | 5 | 268 | 64 | -81 | +3 | -2 | +24 | +49 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 127 | 21 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 194 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 211 | 259 | 348 | 607 | 138 | 277 | 30 | 5 | 268 | 64 | -23 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6186 | 5741 | 1198 | 203 | 47 | 147 | 317 | 1966 | 61 | 182 | 54 | 209 | 258 | 337 | 595 | 129 | 286 | 32 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -171 | +7 | -4 | +50 | +101 | -1.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 125 | 21 | 5 | 15 | 33 | 207 | 6 | 19 | 6 | 207 | 255 | 333 | 588 | 126 | 285 | 32 | 5 | 263 | 64 | -24 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 421 PAwOBA .382 → .304 (−77)K% 21.6% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 2.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .382 → .304; ISO .220 → .170; BABIP .378 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Great Lakes Loons · 118 PAwOBA .321 → .254 (−67)K% 28.8% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 36.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 1.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 24.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 3.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.999 | ×1.027 | 1.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.09% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .321 → .254; ISO .200 → .148; BABIP .333 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 394 PAwOBA .298 → .231 (−68)K% 26.9% → 37.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.90% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 37.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷0.981 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.21% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×1.030 | 23.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.054 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×1.030 | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×1.030 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.48% | ÷1.055 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.94% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 101, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .298 → .231; ISO .106 → .076; BABIP .325 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Great Lakes Loons · 26 PAwOBA .336 → .281 (−55)K% 19.2% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷0.980 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷1.023 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 11.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 28.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.927 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 4.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .336 → .281; ISO .091 → .068; BABIP .353 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Dodgers · 190 PAwOBA .287 → .179 (−108)K% 36.3% → 53.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.32% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 53.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷1.070 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 4.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.68% | ÷1.011 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 17.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.010 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 3.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.967 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 1.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.19% | ÷0.942 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 5.16% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 102, 2B 102, 3B 93, K 97, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .287 → .179; ISO .163 → .104; BABIP .296 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Dodgers · 170 PAwOBA .283 → .181 (−103)K% 38.2% → 54.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.24% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 54.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.65% | ÷0.992 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.21% | ÷0.965 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×1.022 | 25.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.74% | ÷1.032 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×1.022 | 4.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.980 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×1.022 | 0.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.37% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.67% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 96, K 101, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .283 → .181; ISO .110 → .064; BABIP .375 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 211 PAwOBA .350 → .230 (−120)K% 22.3% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.27% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.00% | ÷0.942 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.90% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.028 | ×0.680 | ×0.993 | ×1.022 | 14.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.44% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.993 | ×1.022 | 2.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.915 | ×0.600 | ×0.993 | ×1.022 | 2.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.028 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 2.42% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 106, 2B 87, 3B 83, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .350 → .230; ISO .203 → .114; BABIP .306 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).