Fernando Perez — OGILVIE

Fernando Perez P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.6 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION13 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%16.1%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—70

CMD5055

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$8M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$5M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+1.0	$5M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$43M	+$33M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	3.2%	13.7%	2.3%	4.53	3.35	—
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	24.9%	2.6%	22.3%	2.1%	4.53	2.44	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	0.7%	2.72	2.79	—
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	29.2%	6.2%	23.1%	0.5%	2.72	1.79	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	1.8%	4.06	2.83	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.4%	3.04	3.85	—
2025	21	MIX	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	20.9%	5.6%	15.3%	1.4%	3.04	2.81	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	4	4	13	63	7	16	1	100%	3.2	9.0%	27.9%	-18.9%	1.9%	7.11	6.92	-0.4
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	12	12	65	274	44	16	7	100%	5.4	16.1%	5.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.35	4.35	+0.2
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.1%	5.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.35	4.35	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	77	337	51	32	8	—	—	15.1%	9.4%	5.7%	2.5%	4.80	4.77	+0.1
2026 FULL	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	16.1%	5.7%	10.3%	2.7%	4.35	3.97	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	TOR	16	16	88	372	66	21	10	100%	5.5	17.8%	5.6%	12.2%	2.7%	4.24	4.18	+1.0
2028	24	MLB	TOR	16	16	90	381	71	21	10	100%	5.6	18.7%	5.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.15	4.08	+1.2
2029	25	MLB	TOR	16	16	91	386	74	21	10	100%	5.7	19.3%	5.5%	13.8%	2.7%	4.09	4.04	+1.3
2030	26	MLB	TOR	15	15	91	386	75	21	10	100%	6.1	19.6%	5.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+1.3
2031	27	MLB	TOR	15	15	90	380	74	21	10	100%	6.0	19.5%	5.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.06	+1.2
2032	28	MLB	TOR	15	15	87	369	72	21	11	100%	5.8	19.4%	5.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.10	4.14	+1.0
2033	29	MLB	TOR	14	14	83	352	68	21	11	100%	6.0	19.2%	6.0%	13.2%	3.0%	4.20	4.27	+0.8
2034	30	MLB	TOR	13	13	78	331	69	18	11	100%	6.0	20.8%	5.5%	15.3%	3.2%	4.19	4.18	+0.7
2035	31	MLB	TOR	12	12	73	309	63	18	11	100%	6.1	20.4%	5.8%	14.6%	3.4%	4.31	4.38	+0.4
2036	32	MLB	TOR	11	11	68	285	57	18	11	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.2%	13.7%	3.7%	4.49	4.61	+0.1
2037	33	MLB	TOR	10	10	62	262	51	18	10	100%	6.2	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	4.0%	4.71	4.86	-0.2
2038	34	MLB	TOR	9	9	56	238	45	17	10	100%	6.3	18.9%	7.2%	11.7%	4.3%	4.96	5.13	-0.4
2027	23	MLB	TOR	8	8	44	186	33	10	5	100%	5.5	17.8%	5.6%	12.2%	2.7%	4.24	4.18	+0.2
2028	24	MLB	TOR	11	11	63	266	50	15	7	100%	5.7	18.7%	5.5%	13.2%	2.7%	4.15	4.08	+0.4
2029	25	MLB	TOR	13	13	74	312	60	17	8	100%	5.7	19.3%	5.5%	13.8%	2.7%	4.09	4.04	+0.7
2030	26	MLB	TOR	13	13	80	338	66	19	9	100%	6.2	19.6%	5.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+0.9
2031	27	MLB	TOR	14	14	81	342	67	19	9	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.6%	13.9%	2.8%	4.05	4.06	+0.9
2032	28	MLB	TOR	13	13	80	338	66	19	10	100%	6.2	19.4%	5.8%	13.7%	2.9%	4.10	4.14	+0.8
2033	29	MLB	TOR	13	13	78	329	63	20	10	100%	6.0	19.2%	6.0%	13.2%	3.0%	4.20	4.27	+0.6
2034	30	MLB	TOR	12	12	73	308	64	17	10	100%	6.1	20.8%	5.5%	15.3%	3.2%	4.19	4.18	+0.6
2035	31	MLB	TOR	12	12	69	291	59	17	10	100%	5.8	20.4%	5.8%	14.6%	3.4%	4.31	4.38	+0.3
2036	32	MLB	TOR	11	11	64	270	54	17	10	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.2%	13.7%	3.7%	4.49	4.61	+0.0
2037	33	MLB	TOR	10	10	59	249	49	17	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	6.7%	12.8%	4.0%	4.71	4.86	-0.2
2038	34	MLB	TOR	8	8	51	215	41	15	9	100%	6.4	18.9%	7.2%	11.7%	4.3%	4.96	5.13	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			139	139	820	3462	674	203	108	100%	5.9	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.26	3.92	+14.2
/ 200 IP	—			34	34	200	844	164	50	26	100%	5.9	19.5%	5.9%	13.6%	3.1%	4.26	3.92	+3.5
Career	—			70	69	309	1287	222	99	27	99%	4.4	17.3%	7.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.64	3.76	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—			45	45	200	832	144	64	17	99%	4.4	17.3%	7.7%	9.6%	2.1%	3.64	3.76	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fernando Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	16.1%	5.7%	2.7%	—	4.10	18.6%	13.0%	270	-0.25	—	—	—
Gage Ziehl R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	14.8%	5.1%	2.6%	.313	4.96	21.0%	15.4%	67	+1.02	3.94	170	89
Blake Burkhalter R 2027 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	17.3%	6.5%	2.0%	.317	3.73	16.7%	5.6%	103	+0.15	3.58	173	88
Connor Noland R 2028 · 3.78 FIP	24	SP	3.78	14.8%	5.7%	2.2%	.290	4.26	16.6%	8.0%	315	+0.48	3.78	423	87
Josh Randall R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	22	SP	4.39	15.0%	4.9%	3.5%	.333	5.45	18.1%	10.1%	88	+1.06	4.39	198	87
Marcelo Perez R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	18.0%	8.6%	2.5%	.288	4.99	14.1%	6.7%	217	+0.97	4.02	285	86
Adam Maier R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	16.3%	8.1%	1.6%	.323	5.35	14.3%	4.3%	156	+1.72	3.63	239	86
Cedric De Grandpre R 2025 · 3.37 FIP	21	SP	3.37	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.12	24.1%	9.1%	132	+0.75	3.37	219	86
Landon Marceaux R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	22	SP	4.01	16.1%	4.9%	3.0%	.245	4.97	13.3%	5.3%	61	+0.96	4.01	146	86
Garrett Edwards R 2027 · 3.97 FIP	23	SP	3.97	18.5%	7.3%	2.7%	.250	6.06	13.6%	4.7%	74	+2.09	3.97	181	86
Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2026 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	17.0%	7.7%	1.5%	.299	3.66	21.5%	9.2%	80	+0.20	3.46	158	86
Connor Staine R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP	3.71	16.5%	7.9%	1.8%	.343	5.03	17.5%	4.4%	276	+1.32	3.71	370	86
Matt Eckelman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.60	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.30	4.10	386	85
Brandon Birdsell R 2027 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	17.1%	8.3%	2.0%	.266	4.26	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.48	3.78	262	85
Mason Erla R 2028 · 3.95 FIP	24	SP	3.95	14.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.309	4.99	14.9%	4.6%	124	+1.04	3.12	206	85
Logan Workman R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	85
Matt Tabor R 2025 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP	3.57	19.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.27	3.57	203	85
Austin Peterson R 2027 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	15.0%	6.3%	3.0%	.335	3.45	20.0%	13.7%	362	-0.83	2.67	479	85
Will Ethridge R 2027 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	16.8%	5.8%	2.7%	.274	5.22	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.34	3.57	227	84
Will Rudy R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	15.2%	9.2%	3.0%	.299	5.34	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.69	4.65	194	84
Michael Murray R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	14.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.343	4.29	16.1%	6.8%	42	-0.36	4.21	116	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	13	80	19.1%	5.8%	1.19	4.26
Ross Stripling ('24)	9	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Jesse Chavez ('24)	9	82	22.2%	6.9%	1.26	3.94
Erasmo Ramírez ('24)	8	78	18.1%	5.8%	1.40	4.33
Matt Wisler ('22)	8	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43