Fernando Perez

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2029

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#413ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ATOR	17	17	82	4.06	2.83	25.8%	7.2%	—	K 19.1% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.84
2025	21	MIX2 levels	26	26	121	3.04	2.81	20.9%	5.6%	—	K 16.2% · BB 6.3% · FIP 3.63
2026	22	AATOR	7	5	20	7.20	6.55	15.8%	24.8%	—	K 12.8% · BB 27.2% · FIP 6.77
2027PROJ	23	MLBTOR	1	1	1	5.01	5.01	14.9%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	24	MLBTOR	7	7	38	4.82	4.74	16.8%	9.3%	0.3
2029PROJ67% MLB	25	MLBTOR	9	9	52	4.67	4.59	17.8%	8.8%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCade Kuehler (age 22) · Chris Kachmar (age 24) · Bradley Brehmer (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%14.9%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%4.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$15M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	3.2%	13.7%	2.6%	4.53	3.49	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	24.9%	2.6%	22.3%	2.1%	4.53	2.44	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	0.7%	2.72	2.79	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	29.2%	6.2%	23.1%	0.5%	2.72	1.79	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	1.8%	4.06	2.83	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.0%	3.04	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.0%	3.04	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	20.9%	5.6%	15.3%	1.4%	3.04	2.81	—
2026	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	12.8%	27.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	7.20	6.77	—
2026	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	12.8%	27.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	7.20	6.77	—
2026	22	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	15.8%	24.8%	-8.9%	2.0%	7.20	6.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TOR	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	14.9%	10.1%	4.8%	2.7%	5.01	5.01	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	86	362	61	34	10	100%	5.7	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.82	4.74	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	78	330	59	29	9	100%	6.0	17.8%	8.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.59	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	323	59	28	9	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.54	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	74	312	58	27	9	100%	6.2	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.57	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	70	296	54	26	9	100%	5.9	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.66	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	65	275	50	25	8	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	+0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	59	250	44	23	8	100%	5.9	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.97	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	38	160	27	15	4	100%	5.4	16.8%	9.3%	7.5%	2.7%	4.82	4.74	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	52	220	39	19	6	100%	5.8	17.8%	8.8%	9.1%	2.7%	4.67	4.59	+0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	61	258	47	22	7	100%	6.1	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.59	4.54	+0.6
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	63	266	49	23	7	100%	6.3	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.57	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	63	266	49	24	8	100%	6.3	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.63	4.66	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	59	249	45	23	8	100%	5.9	18.1%	9.1%	9.0%	3.1%	4.72	4.79	+0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	55	232	41	22	8	100%	6.1	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	3.3%	4.87	4.97	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	390	1648	296	147	48	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.31	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	152	75	25	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.9%	9.0%	2.9%	4.69	4.31	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		73	70	317	1325	230	109	27	96%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.78	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	837	145	69	17	96%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.78	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 20 IPFIP 5.98 → 6.77 (+0.79)K% 15.8% → 12.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.84%	—	×0.810	12.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.75%	—	×1.100	27.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.98 → 6.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Vancouver Canadians · 94 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.65 (+0.91)K% 21.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.76%	—	×0.770	16.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.92%	—	×1.150	5.66%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.855	×1.250	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 27 IPFIP 3.03 → 3.58 (+0.55)K% 17.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.95%	—	×0.810	14.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.85%	÷0.885	×1.200	1.16%

Result: FIP 3.03 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ADunedin Blue Jays · 82 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.84 (+1.02)K% 25.8% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.83%	—	×0.740	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.180	8.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.80%	÷1.003	×1.300	2.33%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 50 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.79 (+1.10)K% 29.2% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.23%	—	×0.680	19.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.15%	—	×1.250	7.69%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷1.005	×1.400	0.71%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKDSL Blue Jays · 44 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.49 (+1.03)K% 24.9% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.87%	—	×0.680	16.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.59%	—	×1.250	3.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.130	×1.400	2.57%

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fernando Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.63	17.6%	8.7%	240	-0.38	—	—	—
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	89
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	89
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	85
Michael Matuella R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	13.5%	8.2%	2.3%	.342	4.66	16.5%	3.4%	94	+0.38	3.60	169	85
Spencer Schwellenbach R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	14.5%	8.5%	1.9%	.273	3.09	24.5%	19.9%	266	-0.91	3.05	318	85
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	84
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.05	17.5%	10.6%	280	-0.88	3.90	299	84
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	84
Charlie Morton R 2008 · 4.79 FIP	24	SP	4.79	13.9%	11.3%	2.6%	.285	3.97	14.7%	6.0%	348	-0.82	2.52	2,281	83
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	83
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	83
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	83
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.7%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	83
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	83
Jake Peppers R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	22	SP	5.02	15.3%	12.2%	3.0%	.293	5.15	14.8%	-1.3%	89	+0.13	4.83	186	83
Ricky Salinas R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP	4.77	15.8%	10.5%	3.0%	.297	5.42	17.7%	5.1%	146	+0.65	4.77	274	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	70	17.6%	9.1%	1.11	4.72
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Dave Tomlin ('72-'86, -2 WAR*)	2.6	64	18.0%*	8.6%*	0.87*	4.57*
Anthony Telford ('02)	2.3	65	16.6%	8.8%	0.95	4.17
Jim Brower ('07)	2.9	72	15.7%	10.1%	1.10	4.67
Ed Vande Berg ('82-'88, 3 WAR*)	2.6	74	19.6%*	8.8%*	1.07*	4.07*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*