Fernando Perez — OGILVIE

Fernando Perez P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

+1.5 WAR

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.7 · 2030

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.5%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%11.7%

IP120

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2030

K†4555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	16.9%	3.2%	2.4%	4.53	3.41	+0.8
2023	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	19.9%	7.7%	0.7%	2.72	2.79	+1.2
2024	20	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	19.1%	8.5%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	+1.2
2025	21	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	16.2%	6.3%	2.0%	3.04	3.64	+2.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	2	2	6	31	4	8	0	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	TOR	22	22	120	507	99	40	13	19.5%	7.8%	2.6%	4.27	4.27	+1.4
2026 Total	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	126	538	103	48	13	19.1%	8.9%	2.5%	4.50	4.07	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	TOR	26	26	144	610	126	46	16	20.7%	7.5%	2.6%	4.18	4.12	+1.9
2028	24	MLB	TOR	30	30	164	693	148	51	18	21.4%	7.3%	2.6%	4.10	4.03	+2.4
2029	25	MLB	TOR	32	32	178	752	164	54	20	21.8%	7.2%	2.6%	4.04	3.99	+2.6
2030	26	MLB	TOR	32	32	178	752	166	54	20	22.0%	7.2%	2.6%	4.00	3.97	+2.7
2031	27	MLB	TOR	32	32	177	747	165	54	20	22.0%	7.2%	2.6%	3.99	3.98	+2.6
2032	28	MLB	TOR	32	32	174	736	162	53	20	22.0%	7.2%	2.7%	4.00	4.01	+2.5
2033	29	MLB	TOR	31	31	170	719	157	53	20	21.9%	7.3%	2.7%	4.03	4.05	+2.4
2034	30	MLB	TOR	30	30	165	698	151	52	19	21.6%	7.4%	2.8%	4.08	4.12	+2.2
2035	31	MLB	TOR	29	29	159	673	144	51	19	21.4%	7.5%	2.9%	4.15	4.19	+2.0
2036	32	MLB	TOR	28	28	153	646	137	50	19	21.1%	7.7%	2.9%	4.23	4.28	+1.8
2037	33	MLB	TOR	27	27	146	617	128	48	19	20.8%	7.9%	3.0%	4.32	4.38	+1.5
2038	34	MLB	TOR	25	25	139	586	120	47	18	20.5%	8.1%	3.1%	4.42	4.48	+1.3
2039	35	MLB	TOR	24	24	131	552	111	46	18	20.1%	8.3%	3.2%	4.53	4.61	+1.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			68	67	303	1255	221	89	24	17.6%	7.1%	1.9%	3.60	3.57	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—			45	44	200	829	146	59	16	17.6%	7.1%	1.9%	3.60	3.57	+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fernando Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	19.5%	7.8%	2.6%	—	4.04	21.3%	14.0%	487	-0.23	—	—	—
Jack Mahoney R 2026 · 3.90 FIP	22	SP-	3.90	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.57	13.9%	3.2%	105	+0.67	3.90	225	94
Reid Johnston R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP-	3.74	19.4%	6.1%	2.7%	.297	5.02	19.5%	5.6%	92	+1.28	3.74	204	94
Chris McMahon R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	22	SP-	3.96	18.9%	7.6%	2.7%	.330	5.28	16.7%	9.2%	85	+1.32	3.96	199	93
Grant Rogers R 2027 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	92
Blake Money R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP-	3.53	20.7%	6.9%	2.4%	.281	4.05	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.52	3.53	224	92
Mason Adams R 2027 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	20.4%	7.3%	2.5%	.315	3.76	18.2%	12.0%	120	+0.10	3.66	229	92
Ty Langenberg R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP-	3.53	19.2%	7.6%	2.0%	.325	3.82	16.2%	4.6%	105	+0.29	3.53	213	91
Colton Eastman R 2026 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	19.4%	7.9%	3.4%	.304	4.97	17.0%	2.8%	155	+0.64	4.19	349	91
Jason Bahr R 2027 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP-	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.32	315	91
Ryan Lillie R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	16.9%	5.1%	3.3%	.272	4.82	15.3%	6.7%	146	+0.68	3.00	310	91
Alan Strong R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	15.7%	5.3%	2.4%	.276	3.96	18.9%	12.2%	85	+0.22	3.74	212	91
Logan Workman R 2027 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	91
Michael Fulmer R 2026 · 3.20 FIP	22	SP-	3.20	19.7%	7.0%	1.6%	.290	3.79	19.2%	12.5%	471	+0.59	2.98	874	91
Gabe Mosser R 2027 · 3.77 FIP	23	SP-	3.77	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.58	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.81	3.35	541	90
Garrett Edwards R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	90
Alex FaGalde R 2028 · 3.79 FIP	24	SP-	3.79	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	4.98	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.19	3.79	279	90
Tyler Stuart R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP-	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	1.9%	.280	3.89	20.4%	11.7%	142	+0.34	3.55	252	90
Wil Jensen R 2027 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	90
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2028 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	17.6%	5.5%	2.4%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.15	3.18	237	90
Will Ethridge R 2027 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	16.8%	5.8%	3.1%	.274	5.50	14.6%	2.8%	129	+1.39	3.57	227	90

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.6	$23M	+$22M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.7	$24M	+$23M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.6	$24M	+$23M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+2.6	$25M	+$19M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.4	$24M	+$15M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+2.2	$22M	+$11M
Totals		$28M		$142M	+$114M