Fernando Perez — OGILVIE

Fernando Perez P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.27

FIP4.27

K%16.1%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4545

CTRL—70

CMD5055

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.1	$7M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.2	$7M	+$4M
2031	Arb-2	$7M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
2032	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$5M	+$0.3M
Totals		$22M		$30M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	16.9%	3.2%	13.7%	2.6%	4.53	3.49	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	12	12	44	193	48	5	4	100%	3.6	24.9%	2.6%	22.3%	2.1%	4.53	2.44	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	0.7%	2.72	2.79	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	0.7%	2.72	2.79	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	11	10	50	195	57	12	1	91%	4.5	29.2%	6.2%	23.1%	0.5%	2.72	1.79	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.3%	4.06	3.84	—
2024	20	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	17	17	82	333	86	24	6	100%	4.8	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	1.8%	4.06	2.83	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.0%	3.04	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	16.2%	6.3%	9.9%	2.0%	3.04	3.63	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	121	503	105	28	7	100%	4.7	20.9%	5.6%	15.3%	1.4%	3.04	2.81	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	12.8%	27.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	7.20	6.77	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	12.8%	27.2%	-14.4%	2.4%	7.20	6.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	TOR	7	5	20	101	16	25	2	71%	2.9	15.8%	24.8%	-8.9%	2.0%	7.20	5.98	—
ROS	22	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	7	30	5	2	1	100%	7.2	16.1%	5.6%	10.5%	2.6%	4.27	4.27	+0.1
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	27	131	21	27	3	—	—	15.9%	20.3%	-4.5%	2.1%	6.43	6.11	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	113	478	85	26	13	100%	5.4	17.8%	5.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.18	4.11	+1.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TOR	21	21	116	490	92	27	13	100%	5.5	18.7%	5.5%	13.3%	2.6%	4.09	4.02	+1.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	118	497	96	27	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	5.4%	13.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.98	+1.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	TOR	20	20	118	497	97	27	13	100%	5.9	19.6%	5.5%	14.1%	2.6%	3.99	3.96	+1.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	116	489	96	27	13	100%	6.1	19.5%	5.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	TOR	19	19	112	474	92	27	13	100%	5.9	19.4%	5.7%	13.7%	2.8%	4.05	4.08	+1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	TOR	18	18	107	453	87	27	13	100%	6.0	19.2%	5.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	TOR	17	17	101	426	80	26	13	100%	5.9	18.8%	6.2%	12.6%	3.1%	4.30	4.39	+0.6
2035	31	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	94	397	73	26	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	6.6%	11.9%	3.4%	4.48	4.59	+0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	87	367	66	26	13	100%	6.2	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.6%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2037	33	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	80	337	66	22	13	100%	6.1	19.5%	6.6%	12.9%	3.9%	4.75	4.80	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	73	307	58	22	13	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	4.95	5.08	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	57	241	43	13	6	100%	5.2	17.8%	5.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.18	4.11	+0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	82	346	65	19	9	100%	5.5	18.7%	5.5%	13.3%	2.6%	4.09	4.02	+0.9
2029	25	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	96	405	78	22	11	100%	6.0	19.3%	5.4%	13.9%	2.6%	4.03	3.98	+1.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	103	435	85	24	11	100%	6.1	19.6%	5.5%	14.1%	2.6%	3.99	3.96	+1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	TOR	18	18	105	443	87	25	12	100%	5.8	19.5%	5.5%	14.0%	2.7%	4.00	4.00	+1.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	103	435	84	25	12	100%	6.1	19.4%	5.7%	13.7%	2.8%	4.05	4.08	+1.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	TOR	17	17	100	422	81	25	12	100%	5.9	19.2%	5.9%	13.3%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.8
2034	30	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	94	397	75	25	12	100%	5.9	18.8%	6.2%	12.6%	3.1%	4.30	4.39	+0.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	89	376	69	25	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	6.6%	11.9%	3.4%	4.48	4.59	+0.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	TOR	14	14	83	350	63	24	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.6%	4.68	4.82	+0.1
2037	33	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	62	21	12	100%	5.8	19.5%	6.6%	12.9%	3.9%	4.75	4.80	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	66	279	53	20	12	100%	6.0	18.9%	7.1%	11.8%	4.2%	4.95	5.08	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		178	178	1053	4446	844	266	135	100%	5.9	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	3.0%	4.27	3.93	+12.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	160	51	26	100%	5.9	19.0%	6.0%	13.0%	3.0%	4.27	3.93	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		73	70	317	1325	230	109	27	96%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.78	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	44	200	837	145	69	17	96%	4.3	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.0%	3.72	3.78	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fernando Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	16.1%	5.6%	2.6%	—	4.04	18.6%	13.1%	347	-0.23	—	—	—
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	88
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	87
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	86
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	86
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	85
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	85
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	85
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	84
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	84
Landon Marceaux R 2022 · 3.64 FIP	22	SP	3.64	16.1%	4.9%	2.3%	.245	4.81	13.3%	5.3%	61	+1.17	3.64	146	84
Logan Shore R 2017 · 3.09 FIP	22	SP-	3.09	18.3%	5.9%	1.4%	.350	4.17	13.2%	4.9%	188	+1.08	3.09	386	84
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	84
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	83
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	83
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.90	14.7%	5.0%	124	+0.79	3.11	206	83
Austin Peterson R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	15.0%	6.3%	3.1%	.335	3.52	19.5%	13.8%	405	-0.79	2.69	522	83
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	83
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	83
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	82
J.D. Busfield R 2017 · 4.62 FIP	22	SP	4.62	12.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.293	4.82	11.5%	6.4%	68	+0.20	4.62	177	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.6	101	18.8%	5.9%	1.15	4.26
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13